Technical analysis for FTSE 100 for 29th September 2023
The FTSE 100 closed marginally higher but struggled against its European counterparts as housebuilder shares were brought down by gilt yields. The biggest faller on the FTSE 100 was Britain’s biggest housebuilder Barratt Developments, down 35.7p to 432.7p. Gilt yields rose amid concerns that interest rates could remain high for a longer period of time. The FTSE 100 moved 0.11%, or 8.63 points, higher to finish at 7,601.85.
World stocks were on track for their longest losing streak in two years as the sight of oil prices heading for $100 a barrel compounded worries that interest rates will stay higher for longer.
The MSCI’s main global equities index which tracks 45 countries was on course for its 10th straight daily fall, a losing streak not seen since 2021. The CAC 40 in Paris has fallen 4.2pc during that period while the Dax in Frankfurt has dropped 4.5pc. The Dow Jones Industrial Average on Wall Street has dropped 3.6pc over the last 10 days, with the S&P 500 dropping 4.8pc and the Nasdaq Composite falling 5.5pc.
The FTSE 100 has fallen 2.1pc during that time, having been insulated from the drops because of its large number of energy companies.
Stocks rose in Asia on the last trading day of the quarter amid optimism over spending during China’s Golden Week holiday and on talks of a possible meeting between US and China leaders. Treasuries and the dollar declined.
FTSE 100 technical analysis for today, 29th September 2023
A bit of a bounce yesterday, following the overshoot of the 7550 support level suggesting that it may have been fake, especially as it's held above 7600 overnight. We may well see a rise and dip play out today as its the last trading day of the month so see profit taking later, and also ahead of the weekend.
A rise towards the 7650 first resistance level may well play out this morning, after a possible dip down to test the daily pivot at the 7586 level.
7642 is the key fib and just below the 7650 R1 level so would be a decent profit point for those that are long from the 7550 level yesterday. Above that then 7687 is R2 though a move up towards 7700 isn't beyond the realms of possibility today. We have had the weak second half of September play out very well and are now heading into the bullish bit to start October.
The 2h chart has gone bullish after that climb yesterday and has 7580 locked in as Hull MA support, so any drop down to this area today is worth a long as it will probably hold. If it doesn't then a slide down to the 7550 S1 level, 7539 key fib, and possibly even a retest of the daily low from yesterday at 7522. That feels a bit too bearish looking at the charts though and I would like to see that 7580 level hold ideally.
The 20d Raff is also heading upwards today and the FTSE100 has actually held on pretty well given how weak the S&P500 and US markets have been to close out September. It been good to finally test the 7550 area as expected and that does set up the bounce pretty well now. As you know we have been looking for that level since the middle of September and the 7750 level on the 20th.
Not much more to say really, look for 7650 and 7680 as the main resistance levels, 7580 and 7550 as the support.
Have a great weekend and good luck today.
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