Technical analysis for FTSE 100 for 4th February 2025
Good to see Trump bring business tactics to politics once again - start off high then negotiate down from here as both Mexico and Canada blinked first in light of the imposed tariffs. That led to the inevitable bounce in the S&P500 which ended up closing the gap at 6035 last night but has dropped back a bit again. I am thinking that we will get a dip rise dip pattern today across the board, with a bit of bear Tuesday kicking in later.
The FTSE100 tried to defend the 8550 level for most of the day but the stop hunt down to 8510 presented a good long opportunity in the end. Nice to catch that! Today the bulls will be looking to defend the 30m green coral to start with at the 8550 level again, and possibly even a dip down to the S1 level and yesterdays low around the 8519 level. Decent long opportunity here again.
Resistance wise then the 2h has both the red coral and the Hull MA at the 8625 level so the bulls will need to break above this if they are going to push higher this week. Heading towards Thursday we will have the highly likely BoE rate cut as well which may well spur the bulls towards the end of the week. Next rate cut after this February one is likely to be July, then probably hold steady for a while as things play out.
The next key support below the 8520 level is 8480 where we have the next key daily level, and then S2 at 8455 - I am not expecting it to get this low and I would like to see the 8520 area hold really today.
If the bulls were to really go for it and move above the 8625 level then R1 is only at 8636 followed by the recent high at 8692. Again, feels a bit too optimistic for today and I expect 8625 to cap proceedings today. However, if the sentiment for the week does turn more bullish (and in fact repeats last weeks pattern with the big gap down Monday, then gradually climb for the remainder, we could be back here soon. And then that opens up a possible test of the 8720 resistance area as well.
Not a lot of news today but we do have JOLTS job openings at 1500 so may well see some chop then.
Generally thinking that we may well see a bit more upside today, but a dip later on as we head towards the close.
Good luck today.
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