Technical analysis for FTSE 100 for 3rd October 2025
A decent hold of the 9420 level yesterday late afternoon though the bulls haven't pulled away that much since. I am still running the long from here and continue to trail the stop. With it holding, the 30m chart is bullish to start with and has the daily pivot the 9444 level as support, along with the 25ema just below this at 9440. Ergo I would like to see this area hold initially for a rise towards the daily resistance at R1 at the 9472 level to start with.
The 2h chart is bearish though initially after yesterdays decline form the 9487 level and has Hull MA resistance at 9465 to start with, so the bulls will have their work cut this morning to push past this area.
If they manage to do so then I am looking at a potential rise towards the 9503 key fib level, and possibly even 9516 where we have R2. This feels like a big ask for a Friday though, also given the US shutdown continues.
Support wise, then below the 9440 level we have 9420 again, and this is also now the green 2h coral, but stronger support today is at the 9401 S1 level and round number. As such, should it dip to this then I would like to see this hold. Even worth trying another long here if the 9420 trailer gets stopped out. Below this then the 9350 previous resistance becoming support is the next key level with daily support at the S3 level 9329 below that.
On the news front for the UK we have PMIs out at 0930 so expect some movement then, as the forecasts or for weaker than previous. We also have BoE Gov Bailey speaking at 14:20.
Generally it feels like the bulls will remain in charge, IF they can break above the 9475 area.
For the S&P500 it's largely ignored the government shut down and continues to look bullish with the 2h chart especially so. Initially we may well see a rise towards the 6760 area where we have R2 and the key fib and with the bulls defending the dip to 6700 yesterday (and handily tagging our long order!) we may well see them want to continue to build on that - still in buy the dip mode on this. Support is at the daily pivot at 6719 so look for this to hold, otherwise it's likely to try for the 30m 200ema again at 6688 today. A rise and dip would fit well today.
The DAX40 may well see a test of the 24572 level where we have R1 and key fib resistance levels. The bears may well short this for a move down to the daily pivot support at the 24394 level, and with that also lining up nicely with the 24400 round number, we may well see this hold. The 2h chart remains bullish and now the daily chart is too, with the EMAs crossing back into bullish mode. 25ema support down at 23905 on that currently, and rising. We are also however just at the top of the 20d Raff channel first thing this morning at the 24525 area so any overshoot of this may well then see a dip back.
Good luck today and have a great weekend.
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