Technical analysis for 29th July 2026
The overall picture remains one of European strength versus US weakness, although there are signs that the US indices are attempting to stabilise. The FTSE continues to be the standout performer, while Gold remains under pressure despite a small bounce.
FTSE 100
- Bias: Bullish
- The FTSE remains comfortably the strongest market.
- What I see
- Strong series of higher highs.
- Price comfortably above both moving averages.
- RSI approaching 70 but not excessively overbought.
- Today's candle is simply pausing after yesterday's rally.
- The trend remains one of the cleanest across the major indices.
DAX 40
- Bias: Bullish
- The DAX remains in a rising channel and is simply consolidating after Monday's strong breakout.
- What I see
- Price remains above both the 10 EMA and 25 EMA.
- Small bearish candle sitting just under the daily Pivot.
- RSI near 58 suggests momentum remains positive.
- Trend channel remains intact.
- A close beneath the 25 EMA would weaken the bullish case.
Nasdaq 100
- Bias: Bearish
- Nothing has changed structurally.
- Price remains inside the falling channel and continues to trade beneath every important moving average.
- What I see
- Lower highs remain intact.
- Lower lows remain intact.
- Price rejected the Pivot again.
- Trend remains down.
- Only a daily close back above the 10 EMA would begin to change the outlook.
S&P 500
- Bias: Neutral (slightly improving)
- The selling pressure is beginning to fade.
- Today's candle is attempting to recover back towards the Pivot after several weak sessions.
- What I see
- Still below both moving averages.
- SafeZone projection remains positive.
- Buyers are beginning to appear.
- No confirmed reversal yet.
- Trading plan
- This is now more of a wait-and-see market.
- Above Pivot → bullish intraday opportunities.
- Below Pivot → expect rallies to struggle.
Gold
- Bias: Bearish
- Gold has bounced slightly but remains technically weak.
- What I see
- Still below the falling 25 EMA.
- Trading beneath major resistance.
- Lower-high sequence remains.
- Rally looks corrective rather than impulsive.
- Only a close above 4,100 would suggest a more meaningful recovery.
Overall Market View
The dominant theme remains European outperformance. The FTSE 100 continues to display the strongest technical structure and remains the highest-conviction long opportunity. The DAX is still in a healthy uptrend despite its current consolidation. In contrast, the Nasdaq 100 remains the weakest index and continues to favour short positions into rallies. The S&P 500 is showing early signs of stabilisation but needs a decisive move back above its Pivot and short-term moving averages to confirm a stronger recovery. Gold remains under pressure, with the recent bounce looking more like a pause in the downtrend than the start of a sustained reversal.
Today has the potential to define market direction for the remainder of the summer. We have the Federal Reserve announcing its latest interest rate decision this evening, followed immediately by earnings from Microsoft and Meta — two companies that sit right at the heart of the AI investment story.
Overnight, semiconductor shares came under renewed pressure despite SK Hynix reporting exceptional profit growth. Normally, results like that would have driven the sector higher, but investors are no longer simply rewarding strong earnings. They want reassurance that the enormous sums being invested into artificial intelligence will eventually generate acceptable returns.
At the same time, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain unresolved, with further missile interceptions keeping oil prices supported and inflation concerns lingering in the background.
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