Bulls charging today | 8250 8217 support | 8320 8345 8383 resistance

Bulls charging today | 8250 8217 support | 8320 8345 8383 resistance

Technical analysis for FTSE 100 for 3rd October 2024

The UK's benchmark FTSE 100 stock index edged higher on Wednesday, led by energy shares as oil prices jumped on concerns about tensions in the Middle East, though investors were cautious as they assessed the risk of escalating conflict.

The blue-chip FTSE 100 was up 0.2%, while the more domestically focussed midcap FTSE 250 index was down 0.6%.

Heavyweight oil and gas shares rose 1.6%, closing at their highest in more than a week, as oil prices rose on concerns that crude output from the Middle East could be impacted following Iran's biggest ever military blow against Israel.

Still, most investors seemed to avoid panic selling. Elsewhere, pay settlements awarded by British employers held at their lowest in two years in the three months to August.

Services PMIs due across Europe on Thursday are likely to show further moderation in activity and cement expectations for rate cuts in the region, while potential rate moves in New Zealand and the U.S. are also in focus.

Investors are already betting the European Central Bank will cut rates by 25 basis points at its next two meetings, in October and December, after top hawk Isabel Schnabel sounded more sanguine about inflation coming under control.

While services are expanding in Britain, the composite PMIs in Germany and elsewhere in Europe are expected to continue showing contraction in data for September.

In the U.S., jobless claims and the ISM services survey will top Thursday's data docket, although the main event will be Friday's payroll figures.

Asia
Asian markets, meanwhile, had a mixed day, with the MSCI ex-Japan index falling 1.4%, retreating from a 32-month peak. That was driven by a 3.5% drop in Hong Kong's Hang Seng, which pulled back following a meteoric rise of 30% in just three weeks.

Hong Kong tech shares were down more than 5% and property stocks were headed for their largest one-day drop in almost two years, falling 7.2%.

The other big mover was Japan's Nikkei, which rallied 2.3% as newly elected Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba shed his hawkish feathers and essentially told the Bank of Japan not to hike rates any further. BOJ policy dove Asahi Noguchi reinforced that message, saying the central bank must patiently maintain loose monetary policy.

Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday:

  • HCOB Eurozone Services PMI
  • U.K. S&P Global Servces PMI
  • U.S. jobless claims, ISM services PMI
  • Appearances by Fed Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic and Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari

FTSE 100 technical analysis for today, 3rd October 2024

An interesting looking 50 point bounce at 6am as I have been compiling this which would suggest some sort of news event that isn't public knowledge just yet, though it does reinforce yesterdays stance of buying the dip is the right one to maintain. The 8250 level has once again held as support overnight so should we get a drop down to that this morning then I would expect it to hold again.

However, if the bears were to break below that then the 8220 area is the next key support and worth a long if seen, as we also have S2 here for today as well as the daily support level.

Both the FTSE100 Raff channels are heading up now as well lending weight to the bullish bias. The rise in oil and the strengthening dollar continuing to help the FTSE100.

The 2h chart was bearish at 6am before this rise, and with the bulls now breaking the 8280 Hull MA on that we may well see a more bullish day today. As such the main level to look for is once again the 8350 area where we have the daily resistance and the R2 level (8353). A short here is worth a go.

Above this though and the bulls will once again be aiming for the 8400 area though 8383 is R3 in the way first.  As such, a short at the level between these, say 8390, is worth a go if seen.

On the news front today we have some PMI data at 0930 so expect some volatility around then, then 1330 sees the US initial jobless claims, followed by more PMI data later as 1500 - all of these likely to generate some movement so keep an eye on the releases.

Good luck today.

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