Technical analysis for 21st September 2026
Friday changed the picture again. The FTSE's attempted breakout failed badly, falling 1.4% to 10,659.13, while the US 10-year moved back to 5%. However, this morning brings a potentially important positive: Brent has dropped about below $100, as evidence emerges that Middle Eastern oil flows are recovering faster than feared. S&P futures are up about 0.4%, Nasdaq futures 0.6%, and European futures are also firmer. So today's setup is more nuanced than Friday's. Oil is giving equities relief, but bond yields remain the major obstacle.
What I'm Watching This Week
This week is lighter on central banks but potentially heavy on geopolitics and economic data. US President Donald Trump is attending the UN General Assembly and is due to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday, with Iran, Taiwan and AI among the issues expected to feature. We also get US flash PMI data on Wednesday, which could be particularly important now that the 10-year Treasury is hovering around 5%. And there will be several central-bank speakers today, including ECB President Christine Lagarde and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee.
The FTSE100 has recovered a bit from Fridays low at 10616 but of course we now have a bearish 2h chart following that sell off, with 10740 as key resistance on that, along with R1 and the key fib just above this at 10764. Ergo, if we see a test of this then I would like to see the bears attempt to dip is back down again and then more bull alter to cement a bull Monday once again.
The key will be 10630 holding on any dip down as we have the key fib here. A break of this will likely see Fridays low retested at 10616 with 10564 S1 below that. That would all be very pessimistic for today and with oil now back below $100 general sentiment might be more optimistic. In the short term anyway!
If the bulls were to break above the 10765 level then 10824 remains the next daily resistance and the level that was almost tested on Friday below it dropped sharply.
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