FTSE 100 prediction for trading today 10th July 2023
Asian share markets edged cautiously higher on Monday as investors looked ahead to a key reading on U.S. inflation and the start of another corporate earnings season.
Chinese consumer price figures surprised on the soft side with inflation falling in June and essentially unchanged from a year before. The miss implies there is plenty of scope to ease monetary policy further, but also underlines the challenge Beijing faces in reflating its economy and avoiding a deflationary spiral.
Earnings season starts later this week with JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N), Citigroup (C.N), Wells Fargo (WFC.N), State Street (STT.N) and PepsiCo (PEP.O) among the names reporting.
This week also has major data on U.S. consumer prices which is forecast to show headline inflation slowed to its lowest level since early 2021 at 3.1%, with the core easing to 5.0%.
FTSE 100 prediction for trading today
The bulls will need to be quick out the blocks today as we are just on S1 as I write, at 7234. As such we could see an early rise to test the 7300 area where we have decent resistance. The bulls will certainly be keen to fight back a bit after the sell off that started on Tuesday at the 7560 level.
Below the S1 level the bears will be looking for a drop down to the 7200 area where we have the next decent support area. This is also the bottom of the Raff channels (splitting the two of them really) and with S2 and daily support here, along with the round number, I would like to see a hold of this level should it get tested today.
Below 7200 then 7172 is S3, and that would also get things a lot more bearish for this week if 7200 breaks. We do have the US banks reporting earnings this week as well, which may well drive some volatility.
On the upside, the bulls will be looking to push up to (and past) the 7295 level. We have R1 here and I think that we may well get a rise to this area today (famous last words though maybe!). It will hinge on them pushing past the 7260 daily pivot initially though.
Above the 7300 level then things don't look quite as bearish, and the bulls will be trying to push up towards the 7350 2h coral line. Maybe not today for that though.
Looking at the S&P500, we could well see a drop down to the 4360 area and I would like to see this hold to set up a decent climb. On Friday we saw a decent bounce from the 4400 level and we tested the key fib at 4440, so there is still buying appetite in the US. Will we get a bull Monday from them and more buy the dip today? As long at 4360 holds then it looks possible. There is a gap at 4400 which will likely close early on today, before then dropping off.
So, basically looking to see if we get a defence of the 7200 level on the FTSE100 and 4360 on the S&P for a bit of a bounce off those levels.
Good luck today.
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