Technical analysis for FTSE 100 for 4th November 2024
Here we go... USA election week. The FTSE100 has continued its climb off the 8080 support area into Monday so far and we may well see a bit of a bull Monday today. The bulls will be looking to test the 8200 area again, and following the drop from there Friday, try and make it stick. R1 is at 8211 with the key fib at 8206, so an initial drop off from there down to the support at the 8150 area would make sense, and even possibly a drop all he way down to the 8115 support lower down.
I expect we may well see bit more volatility this week for obvious reasons.
Above the 8211 R1 level then the next likely resistance area comes from the 25ema on the daily at 8248, with 8289 above that for the red daily coral line. If the bulls were to push on today I am thinking that the 8250 level is the one that's likely to get a reaction, as we also have R2 here for today.
As mentioned, a break of the daily pivot at 8160 is likely to see the 8115 area, but if the bears were to really go for it today then 8095 is the key fib, with S2 and the bottom of the 20d Raff channel at 8064. I don't think we will get that low, and the kick up on the oil price today may well help BP and Shell and in turn the FTSE100.
Following the climb from 8080 on Thursday the 2h chart is now looking nicely bullish, with that 8115 support level from the Hull MA looking good. Any test of this I would like to see hold... along with a break of the 8250 level on the upside. Might need the market to adopt the "Trump trade" tomorrow if it looks like he is going to win a second term. The trade is based on the idea that a second Trump administration would be positive for American stocks.
So, thinking a dip and rise today and ideally a bounce off the 8115 level with a bull Monday generally playing out.
Good luck today
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