Technical analysis for 18th December 2025
FTSE100 Bias
- BIAS: BULLISH CONTINUATION
- Market State
- Price holding above the Daily Pivot (~9,770).
- Firmly inside the rising green daily channel.
- Pullbacks are shallow and bought.
- RSI ~59 → healthy bullish momentum, not stretched.
- Intraday structure = bullish flag / consolidation above support.
- Bias Rules
- Bullish while above: 9,725
- Continuation trigger: Above 9,820
- First caution: Below 9,725
- Trend breaks only below: 9,670
- Buy dips, trend intact, no top signal.
Summary
- Above 9,750 → Buy dips
- 9,750–9,820 → Bullish consolidation
- Above 9,820 → Breakout mode
- Below 9,725 → Bearish shift
S&P500 Bias
- BIAS: STRONG BULLISH (GLOBAL DRIVER)
- Market State
- Firmly above Daily EMA20 & EMA50.
- Volatility suppressed → typical bull-market grind.
- No distribution, no lower-high structure.
- Market still pricing risk-on conditions.
- Bias Rules
- Bullish while above: Daily EMA20
- Normal behaviour: Range → slow grind higher
- Bearish only if: Daily close below EMA50
- Trend-following longs favoured, dips are opportunities.
DAX40 Bias
- BIAS: STRONG BULLISH (EUROPE LEADER)
- Market State
- Continues to print higher highs / higher lows.
- Above all key daily moving averages.
- Pullbacks remain controlled and corrective.
- Strong correlation with S&P strength.
- Buy dips and breakouts only. Shorts are low probability.
Well that news yesterday about inflation certainly lit the bulls afterburners, and we almost managed to test the 9865 daily resistance level but not quite. As such that remains in play and if seen is still worth a short. Having been dragged back down by the bearish S&P500 yesterday, the bulls have defended the 9760 level and with the daily pivot here they will be looking to defend this. Above 9750 is remains bullish and a run up into the holidays would certainly be good. Once again we have a standard resistance level (R3 in this case) above the 10000 level!
If the bears were to break the daily pivot level at 9762 then a slide down to test the 30m 200ema at 9732 looks likely, and if that happens I would like to see a bounce here. Below that then 9670 is S1 and the daily level at 9643 also comes into view - a level that "should" see a decent hold and bounce.
We do of course have the BoE at midday with an expected 0.25% interest rate cut so we may well see a buy the rumour sell the news pattern play out. To help the bulls I am thinking that the S&P500 will try and retrace some of that decline from yesterday and it's defended the 6730 level overnight. All in all thats a pretty decent stop hunting flush down which may have been the aim of the game!
If the bulls were to break above the 9865 level today then look for a test of R2 at 9945 though that may well be a bit of a big ask!
Bit of a similar one for the S&P500 and DAX40 with a rise and dip looking like it may well play out, if the bulls can break the daily pivots on both of them at 6759 and 23983 respectively. That should then target the resistance levels at 6800 and 24132. The bulls really need to defend today though after yesterday's drop, and ironically the FTSE100 is the most positive of them all! That could of course be front running and the bulls will be quick out the blocks today in the US and Germany.
Good luck today.
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