Technical analysis for 10th September 2026
Brent is around $101.10 this morning after the largest wave of attacks on Gulf shipping since the latest escalation began. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped sharply, while roughly a third of normal Gulf oil exports is still estimated to be missing.
That oil shock is feeding straight back into global bond yields and inflation expectations. The US 10-year has reached its highest level since 2023, while today brings an expected ECB rate hike and US PPI ahead of tomorrow's CPI.
Yesterday's price action confirmed the deterioration: FTSE closed -1.31% and S&P 500 -0.48%
As such I am still looking at the lower daily support at 10609 as the next key level and we have the key fib at 10619 as well. As we open the price is sitting at the bottom of both the Raff channels so we could well see any move below these reverse later on. In fact, the ASX200 had a dip and rise today and we may well follow suit. If the bears were to break 10600 though then the next daily level is another 100 lower at 10509 - not expecting that today and instead we may well see a bit of a bounce and it would be good to see the bulls fight back a bit after yesterday's decline.
The bulls will be looking to recapture the 10800 level though, but we have a few strong resistance levels in play just below this at the 10764 area, namely the R1, 30m 200ema and key fib. As such if we were to see a rally to this area then a short here feels like its worth taking.
Level of the day: 10,700
Below 10,700: sell rallies remains my preferred strategy.
Rejection from 10,700: favours 10,650 → 10,592.
Break below 10,640: increases the probability of 10,592 considerably.
Break below 10,592: opens 10,550–530.
Reclaim 10,700: don't press shorts.
Above 10,750–770: the probability of a larger short squeeze increases considerably.
My highest-conviction setup is therefore an opening relief rally towards 10,690–705 followed by a rejection. If we get that, I think there's a good chance the FTSE subsequently returns to 10,650 and tests 10,592.
If there is no rally and 10,640 simply breaks, I'd wait for the failed retest rather than chase the initial breakdown. That should give a cleaner route towards 10,592, which I think is today's main downside target.
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