Technical analysis for FTSE 100 for 25th September 2024
The UK's FTSE 100 rose on Tuesday as markets cheered fresh stimulus measures in China that lifted shares of miners and luxury-focused retailers, while midcaps fell led by losses in utilities.
The blue-chip FTSE 100 was up 0.3% as regulators in China unveiled broad stimulus measures, including rate cuts and moves aimed at reviving the stock market, in an attempt to spark growth in the country's faltering economy.
In an interview published Tuesday, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said that he was "very encouraged" by the downwards path of inflation and that interest rates were gradually heading lower.
Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said that the cost of fixing shortfalls in the public finances would be shared fairly and that all his government's policies would still be properly funded. His comments come a day after Finance Minister Rachel Reeves ruled out a return to economic austerity.
Asia & Overnight
Chinese stocks surged on Wednesday, lifting regional markets and helping extend a stimulus-fueled global rally that also underpinned risk-sensitive currencies, while Brent crude hovered near a three-week high
The dollar dropped after weak U.S. macroeconomic data overnight boosted the case for a second super-sized interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve's next meeting. Gold rose to a fresh all-time peak.
Mainland Chinese blue chips advanced 3.1% as of 0230 GMT, following a 4.3% jump in the prior session. Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 2.2%, adding to Tuesday's 4.1% surge.
The strong start for Chinese stocks invigorated other regional indexes, with Taiwan's benchmark up 1.3% and South Korea's Kospi gaining 0.1%
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rallied 1%. Japan's Nikkei shook off early weakness to rise 0.3%, helped by a retreat in the yen, a traditional safe haven.
Sterling edged up to $1.3417, and earlier reached a fresh high since March 2022 at $1.3430.
Overnight, data showed U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly fell to 98.7 this month from an upwardly revised 105.6 in August. The decline was the largest since August 2021. The odds on another 50-basis point Federal Reserve rate cut at the November meeting jumped to 60.4% from 53% a day earlier, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool.
Brent crude futures slipped 19 cents to $74.98 a barrel, but remained close to Tuesday's high of $75.87, a level previously not seen since Sept. 3. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude lost 22 cents to $71.34 per barrel.
US stocks held on to gains buoyed by a jump in Nvidia’s shares as traders largely shrugged off a grim consumer confidence reading. The S&P 500 edged up 0.3% — ending the day with its 41st record close this year — while the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.5%. A sweeping stimulus package from China helped shore up stocks with economic ties to the country. The benchmarks had initially declined after a Tuesday reading on the Conference Board’s gauge of consumer sentiment posted the biggest drop since August 2021 — only to reverse course after a report that Nvidia’s CEO was done selling shares. Investors are awaiting data on the Federal Reserve’s preferred price metric and US personal spending later this week for further clues.
FTSE 100 technical analysis for today, 25th September 2024
It was a bit slow but the drop from the 8307 resistance level yesterday played out. Still running the short and trailing the stop for the moment, having just taken a bit more off at 8241. A portion of the gold long is also still running, again trail the stop.
The bears have broken the 8250 support level overnight, and we may well see a retest of the recent support at 8195 today. Having set another record high close the US markets have seen profit taking, and as such sentiment may well be a bit more bearish today. The Raff channels are also now both heading down on the FTSE100 as the bulls have failed to push on past the 8300 level.
We are just opening slightly above the key fib support to start with at 8225 so we could see an initial kick up towards the daily pivot resistance at the 8270 area, and we also have the red 30m coral here. 8267 is also the 200ema on the 30m, so with this cluster of resistance levels here it may well cap any early bullishness.
If we do slide down from there then 8210 is S2, and then the 8195 as mentioned. Should the bears break this at all today though, the 8130 daily support level comes into view. That said, I don't think we will get that low today but never say never!
On the flip side, if the bulls break above the 8275 level then yesterdays high and the R1 area at 8305 is next up with the 8338 key fib above that.
Given that the ASX200 had a bearish day, we may well follow suit.
Despite the daily Raffs channels heading down on the FTSE100, the US ones look a lot more positive, with both the S&P500 and Nasdaq heading up still. The daily S&P500 chart also has 25ema support at the 5608 area, so as long as this holds this month we may well see some more strength in October.
We have GDP and some jobs news out in the US tomorrow which may well help to get some bullishness later as the buy the rumour sell the news kicks in before the close of the US session.
Good luck today.
Interested in how to start trading the FTSE 100? Frequently Asked Questions on Spread betting
Recommended Broker for FTSE 100 trading and how to start trading using support and resistance
IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!
Membership, Trading Tips, Support and Resistance Levels with Live Trading
If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
What you get
- Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE 100, DAX40, Gold and S&P 500.
- Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
- Telegram live trading room and group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates
Keep up to date with new content, free sign up below with just your email address
