Technical analysis for FTSE 100 for 3rd April 2025
It's been a while since we have had a -1000 point move on the Dow, but the "Liberation Day" has put the cat amongst the pigeons to start things off this morning. A sea of red to start the day on indices, however we could see a bit of a relief rally - stocks do like to climb a wall of worry sometimes. We are also oversold and on long term support, with the bottom of both the 10 & 20 day Raff channels here at 8440 to start with.
8435 is also S1 for today so a climb from this for a rise towards the 8540 daily pivot level would be good to start the day, but it will depend on whether the city boys see this dip as a buying opportunity. The positive is that the UK has only been hit with 10% tariffs, whereas the EU is 20%, China 34%....
If the bears break the 8435 level then we will likely drop down to test the daily 200ema at 8363 and if that played out I would like to see that hold.
On the resistance side, the daily pivot as mentioned is first up at 8542, and a rise to this initially would be good. If the bulls were able to break this and push on then the 8626 R1 and also the 8600 round number are the next ones to look out for though that maybe feels a bit optimistic for today... The 2h chart remains bearish and despite the spike above yesterday, the Hull MA resistance for today is at 8560.
The bulls will be aiming to retrace some of the falls since yesterday's close but adding more than 100 points might be a bit optimistic so a stall at the 8550 area makes sense. That said, adding weight to the 8600 area is the key fib and 30m 200ema both at 8590, so it will be worth keeping an eye on this level for a reaction.
Generally then today I am thinking that we may well see a bit of a retrace and a climb for the FTSE100 despite everything..... Certainly fits the charts well, if we take sentiment out of the equation.
The S&P500 looks like it may also rise initially to test the 2h resistance at the 5550 level which would be a decent test of the Hull MA, whereupon we may well see another drop. Above that the 30m 200ema is at 5605 currently, so could tie in with a move to the round number at 5600 later, and would be the next resistance to look for. Support wise, the 5440 level is the overnight low and also the bottom of the 20d Raff for today so a hold of this would be good. Worth a long here if seen.
A similar pattern for the Dax40, with an initial hold of the key fib at 21752 if seen would be good and I think the bulls will be looking to push this up towards 22135 ultimately and a test of the key fib resistance there. That said the 2h chart also has resistance from the Hull MA at 22140 so a stall here on any early bounce would make sense.
Going to be volatile again today I expect, stay nimble and good luck.
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