Technical analysis for FTSE 100 for 17th June 2025
Well we certainly got the rise and dip again yesterday though it turned just shy of the 8910 resistance level, and its set the scene for a bear Tuesday today, with initial resistance at the 8855 level as we have the daily pivot and the red 30m coral here, along with the 2h Hull MA on the now bearish 2h chart. As such an initial rise to here then a drop off as the global geopolitical "chaos" continues unabated is likely with a drop down to test the 8790 area again.
If that holds as support then it bodes well, and as we have S1 here, along with the bottom of the 10d Raff channel I would like to see it hold. The bulls will of course be keen to defend the 8800 level and after the drop off 8900 again yesterday will be looking to push it up to there again, and probably break on this third test. I don't think we will see those heights today but maybe later in the week. Whilst the Fed are unlikely to cut rates tomorrow, they will be giving their economic outlook and if that is perceived to be positive (and maybe a summer rate cut to keep Trump happy) we may well see some upside off the back of that.
On today's news front we have the US retail sales out at 1330 so expect a bit of volatility around then.
So having mentioned the two main levels at 8790 and 8850 to look out for, what else may be in store.... Well if the bulls push higher then 8883 is R1 and then yesterdays high again at 8900. 8909 is the key fib but if the bulls were to break 8900 with some conviction then then R2 level at 8931 looks more likely to be tested. Will certainly need a decent push from them today to see those levels though!
For the bears, below the 8790 area them 8777 is S1 and then the daily support at 8760. This latter level should see a bounce if tested as a break of this on the longer timeframes would possibly see some serious bearishness down towards 8550. As such I think the powers that be will be keen to keep the upside in play. 8729 is S3 should it break and slide a bit more today but I dont think it will be that bearish.... famous last words!
For the Dax40 the 2h chart is now bullish and 23395 is Hull MA support, and aligning nicely with the key fib as well at 23391. As such an initial bit of bear Tuesday down to there and then a bounce would be good. Initially we have the now red 30m coral at 23581 as resistance with the 200ema at 23666 above that. Again, a bear Tuesday may well play out, at least initially and a drop off this coral down to the 23390 area would make sense.
For the S&P500, once again the bulls will be looking to keep the price above the 6000 level and if we get an initial drop down to the key support levels at 5980 I think we will see a bounce here. A bit of front running of the Fed is probably going to kick in later as well, so a dip and rise would make sense on this as well. 6025 is initial resistance and then R1 at 6050 above that.
Good luck today
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