Technical analysis for FTSE 100 for 1st July 2025
Decent movements yesterday with the drop off the 8820 and the bounce at 8755. Today may well see a bearish Tuesday play out as the bulls failed to hang onto 8800 yesterday. The 8820 level remains as resistance once again to start with, and would be a decent double top for a bear Tuesday to play out. Higher up then the R2 level at 8842, and just above the key fib 8834 may well cap any bullishness today.
Initial support is at the 30m 200ema and Hull MA on the 2h at the 8770 area though if the bears get their skates on then a drop down to test that 8755 once again may well happen quite quickly, with the S1 level at 8740 just below that.
Stronger support is at the S2 and key fib level of 8715 so should we see that then a long here is worth a go as well.
However, the 2h chart remains bullish, albeit weaker than yesterday, and 8752 is the untested green coral line to start with today to lend weight to that area. I am thinking that we may well get a rise and dip play out today.
If the bulls were to break above the 8842 level then 8866 is R3 and as per yesterday then the 8890 level is worth looking for above that. Feels like a big ask for today though and shorting the rallies to the lower resistance levels feels like the more sensible option.
On the news front there is manufacturing PMI at 0930 with a forecasted uptick to 47.7 from 46.4 previously. Thats followed by a cluster of USA centric PMIs this afternoon and the JOLTS for May at 1500, so expect a bit of volatility then.
For the S&P500 there is initial support at the daily pivot at the 6194 level and the bulls will be aiming to get the price back above the 6200 level. However the 2h chart has now gone bearish, and has Hull MA resistance at 6210, as such this also looks like shorting the rallies for a possible bear Tuesday. The 2h chart does however have the green coral at the 6170 level as support, and with S1 at 6173 then we could see this level hold. Feels unlikely, but above the 6215 level then look for a test of the key fib and R2 at 6235. Below the 6170 level then 6152 S2 is next up.
Similar picture for the DAX40 with a possible rise towards the R1 at 24109 and key fib at 24129. This level should in theory hold as resistance and then a drop down, possibly as far as the S1, key fib and 30m 200ema all around the 24000 area, which should hold as its the round number also. The 2h chart is bearish with Hull MA resistance at 24035 to start with as well. Again, shorting the rallies feels the better play for today on this.
Good luck today
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