Technical analysis for FTSE 100 for 15th October 2024
The UK's main stock indexes kicked off the week on a high note, powered by gains in utilities and pharma stocks, while gambling firms fell on reports the government was considering a tax raid.
The blue-chip index FTSE 100 advanced 0.5%, while the mid-cap index FTSE 250 gained 0.3%.
Investors are bracing for a flood of economic data from Britain, starting employment figures on Tuesday.
The Consumer Price Index for September is due on Wednesday, with economists polled by Reuters expecting core CPI to ease to 3.4% on an annual basis. Producer price figures are scheduled for release on the same day.
British retail sales figures for September are due on Friday.
Meanwhile, market participants were assessing China's economic stimulus promises over the weekend, which were light on details.
Asia & Overnight
Asian stocks were mostly higher on Tuesday, supported by a strong Wall Street close and investor optimism about corporate earnings, while the dollar held near a two-month top, aided by bets on a smaller U.S. rate cut next month.
Oil prices are down about 3% after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly told the United States that Israel is willing to strike Iranian military targets and not nuclear or oil ones, easing immediate concerns about supply disruptions.
The Nikkei rallied 1% to a three-week peak, having been closed on Monday for a holiday. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged up 0.2% as gains in Taiwan and Australia were partly offset by a drop in Chinese markets.
China's blue chips fell 0.4%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index slipped 0.3% as a lack of new stimulus details from Beijing left investors wanting for more.
Local media reported that Beijing may raise an additional 6 trillion yuan ($850 billion) from Treasury bonds over three years to help bolster a sagging economy.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Monday called for "more caution" on interest-rate cuts ahead, while Fed Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari sees more modest rate cuts ahead. Traders are pricing in about an 88% probability the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points next month and a 12% chance it would leave rates unchanged, according to CME's FedWatch.
Oil extended its declines for a third straight session on demand concerns and as the jitters about Israel's attack on Iran calmed. Brent futures fell 2.9% to $75.22 a barrel, having dropped 2% overnight.
FTSE 100 technical analysis for today, 15th October 2024
A decent bull Monday again yesterday with them managing to get it all the way for another test of the 8330 level. Which promptly saw the stall! As such that level remains the line in the sand and a break of that will likely lead to a test of the 8350 level today. We may well see a rise and dip today as some bear Tuesday vibes click in later, though to start with the bulls will probably want to defend the 8300 level.
Initial support is at the daily pivot at the 8292 level as well with 8275 below this where we have the 25ema on the daily. If we test that it's the first touch since going bullish once again so in theory should lead to decent support. It's helped with the 30m 200ema as well at 8270.
If we do get a rise today then we have the top of both the Raff channels at the 8360 area to again lend weight to resistance here.
On the news front it's still just CPI tomorrow that will be holding traders attention so we may well have another less volatile day today.
If the bears were to break below the 8275 though then we will likely see 8240 in short order, as we have the key fib here, along with the 2h coral still. Below that then 8203 for S2. I am not expecting it to be that bearish though.
Above 8350 the bulls will once again be aiming for 8400. A break of the 8330 level that has capped a lot of the rises recently will be quite significant so the bulls will likely want to capitalise on that. The US earnings are also helping the bulls at the moment and the US markets put in a decent rise yesterday as well. The S&P500 is certainly looking positive, and the 2h Hull support at the 5850 is likely to hold on a test today for a rise towards the 5900 area. I have a feeling it might not be long till we see 6000..... what happens after that could be interesting though, with the US election just weeks away.....
Generally it's all looking fairly positive - Raff channels on all but the FTSE100 are heading up strongly, while the FTSE100 ones have levelled off - bullish bias still across the board on the longer time frames. For the moment anyway.... be time to start being cautious again soon.
Good luck today.
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