Technical analysis for FTSE 100 for 28th November 2023
European shares slipped on Monday, hurt by weakness in healthcare stocks, while real estate stocks limited losses as they were supported by sharp gains in UK property portal Rightmove.
The dollar extended its losing streak on further bets the Federal Reserve is almost done with its rate-hiking cycle. Treasuries steadied after a rally. The greenback fell for a fourth day and is headed for its worst month since last November as traders turned more optimistic about the likelihood of Fed rate cuts. The South Korean won and Thai baht led the gains in Asia, with the won jumping the most in nearly two weeks.
Asian markets kept up their November rally and the dollar dipped to three-month low, but big-name fast-fashion company Shein stole the market spotlight with an IPO filing that will likely test investor appetite for new listings.
On a macro level, the theme remains the same: Traders are getting fidgety about whether the Fed is well and truly done with interest rate hikes, and when it is likely to start cutting rates - presumably next year.
The Fed's focus on beating inflation means Thursday's core personal consumption expenditures data, the central bank's preferred measure of inflation, will be the main event this week, with investors hesitant to place major bets and keeping share markets within a narrow range.
FTSE 100 technical analysis for today, 28th November 2023
Fairly tight range yesterday with another hold of the 7450 level and the short of 7475 yielding well. For today we may well see more consolidation though the bears will be keen to break below the 7450 level and have a bearish Tuesday. The 2h chart remains bearish, and if they were to break it then a slide down towards the 7420 level looks likely.
Below that then 7400 is the next main area being the round number, and also S3 for today. Should it get there - or even just below to test the next daily support at 7378 then a long here is worth a go.
It does feel like it may well just be coiling ready to be bullish next month. The news flow has turned slightly negative as well with various talking heads talking down the UK economy - a good sign that we will likely see a rise on markets. Spook the general public into selling!
On the bullish side, 7470 is initial resistance with the daily pivot and the 30m 200ema here, and a break of that will likely see a rise towards the 7500 level again.
The bulls will be keen to push past this though as that would open up another test of the 7525 area (double top here then) and also the daily 200ema at 7523. Above this then 7566 is the next level of note though this feels like a big ask for today.
Generally feels like we may have a bearish day but keep an eye on 7450 and then the 7420 areas for support.
Good luck today.
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