Technical analysis for FTSE 100 for 13th February 2024
The FTSE 100 closed nearly flat on Monday as investors braced for a data-heavy week and central bank policymakers' remarks for cues on the path of interest rates. The FTSE 100 held its ground at 7,573.69 points.
Global stock indexes were little changed on Monday while the U.S. dollar inched higher ahead of Tuesday's U.S. consumer price index report, which could provide clues on when the Federal Reserve is likely to begin cutting interest rates. Markets in China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Vietnam and Malaysia were closed for holidays.
Mainland China's financial markets are closed for the Lunar New Year holiday and will resume trade on Monday, Feb. 19. Hong Kong trade will resume on Feb. 14.
Shares climbed in Asia, boosted by advances in Japanese and South Korean stocks, as trading resumed after a holiday. US equity futures declined ahead of inflation data due later Tuesday.
MSCI Inc.’s Asia-Pacific equity index rose for the first time in four days, paced by stocks in South Korea, where the benchmark Kospi rose about 1% as expectations for a regulatory push to boost the local market continue. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index rose the most since November 2022, as tech shares led gains after Tokyo Electron boosted its full-year revenue and profit guidance. Markets are closed in China, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Vietnam for Lunar New Year holidays.
The S&P 500 ended down slightly after hitting a fresh intraday record high. Last week the S&P 500 finished above 5,000 points for the first time ever. The MSCI world stock index was flat after touching its highest level since January 2022.
The January consumer price index report is due Tuesday, while the U.S. producer prices report is due later in the week. Investors are also eager to see Thursday's U.S. retail sales report for January.
Expectations of a Fed rate cut at its next meeting have fallen as some recent data has suggested the economy remains robust.
Markets are pricing in an 84.5% chance of rates remaining unchanged in March. Also, the odds for at least a 25-basis-point rate reduction in May have dropped to 61%, from over 95% at the start of 2024, as per the CME FedWatch Tool.
FTSE 100 technical analysis for today, 13th February 2024
Still running half the long from yesterday so let's see if we get a rise and dip again today to end on a bear Tuesday. The S&P500 dropped off sharply from the 5050 level yesterday but with the FTSE100 holding up, we may well see an another rise towards 5050. That said, the 2h chart has resistance at the 5035 now so we may only get this high and then that will pull the FTSE100 down with it.
Initially we have support at the 7570 level with the daily pivot and the green 30m coral here, though unemployment data at 7am suggests employment growth has slowed, while non workers has also climbed.
If we hold then a rise towards the 7620 resistance level may well play out and then a drop off from there this afternoon. Above the 7600 R1 and 30m 200ema level then this is the next key area to keep an eye on. Above that then the bulls would like to test the 7665 level though that may be a big ask for today as we may well have a bit of a bearish sentiment playing out.
Support wise, below the 7570 then it would be the third major test of this support area so a break would be quite pessimistic and allow the bears to target the 7524 support level. If it were to get that low today then a long here is worth a go.
With the lacklustre performance yesterday the daily chart has gone bearish again with a cross brewing on the EMAs and showing resistance at the 7606 level. Basically it's coiling for a break one way or the other soon. The seasonality chart for the S&P500 does have a rise and dip in February which has played out so far son if we may well have a bearish second half of the month..... start being cautious with the longs! Shorting that 5035 possibly on the futures to hold till month end might well play out well....
Not too much more to say, have a good session today.
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