FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help
The FTSE 100 inched higher on Friday, recording its best weekly showing since mid-March, although oil and gas stocks came under renewed pressure after the UK government’s windfall tax plan this week. The index rose 0.3% to close at 7,585, though BP and Shell slipped about 2pc as traders continue digesting Rishi Sunak’s announcement on the new oil and gas levy.
Power generators such as SSE, Centrica and Drax dropped between 1.6pc and 4.2pc, while Harbour Energy , the biggest UK North Sea oil and gas producer, tumbled 10.8pc.
Stocks in Asia and US futures advanced Monday after China eased some virus curbs and Wall Street had its best week since November 2020.
Japanese and Hong Kong equities led gains, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 contracts climbed in a sign the bounce may have further to run. The S&P 500 wiped out its May losses and snapped a string of seven weekly declines as institutional investors rebalanced portfolios into the end of the month.
China’s yuan outperformed after the nation reported fewer Covid-19 cases in Beijing and Shanghai. That spurred the government to ease some of the strict virus controls to stimulate sagging growth. Chinese stocks had more modest gains as reopening plans sparked gains in selective sectors like consumer and travel.
The dollar slipped for a third day versus major peers as havens lost their appeal amid the improved mood. Oil traded near $116 a barrel as the European Union failed to agree on a revised package of Russian sanctions. Cash Treasuries won’t trade in Asia because of the US Memorial Day holiday.
Traders are pondering whether the bottom of the selloff is near as investors have been buying the dip after one of the worst starts to the year for equities. However, a wall of worries remains from hawkish central banks underscoring fears of a recession, escalating food inflation from the war in Ukraine and China’s lockdowns stunting economic activity.
Is It Over, Yet?
With stocks rallying as May draws to a close, investors are wondering if the worst of this year’s collapse is over. The S&P 500’s 13% drop so far this year is its biggest since 1970, fueled by recession fears as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy to fight inflation. And rising interest rates dented the allure of tech and growth shares, with the Nasdaq 100’s 22% plunge ranking as its largest ever. So where are we now? Last week the S&P was up 2.5%, on less-hawkish remarks from Fed officials and upbeat corporate earnings. But analysts say stocks may have yet to hit a final low.
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 30th May 2022
A very short week this one with the US closed today for Memorial Day, and then the 2 bank holidays on Thursday and Friday in the UK. Today may be relatively flat with the USA closed, and we may well see an early reaction at the 7625 resistance level for a drop down to the pivot before another leg up later as a bit of Bull Monday kicks in.
Above the 7625 initial resistance is the 7670 daily level and we could see this later. 7638 is also R2 to navigate. The charts are looking quite bullish again now, with the daily locking in that EMA cross, and has 7476 as support now. We still haven’t tested that rising support line, so we could see any dip down too there get bought up before too long.
7676 is also R3 and aligning with that higher daily level, so pushing above that may be a big ask today. If it did then it bring the top of the Raff channels into play, with the 20 day at 7760 currently, and the 10 day at 7800! Not expecting to get to either of those today though but we may well see them soon.
For the bears, if we get an initial dip down off the 7625 they will be looking to test the daily pivot at the 7578 level, and I am expecting any dip to get bought up today. Below that pivot and they will be aiming for 7540 level where we have the 200ema on the 30m, and just below the 2h coral at 7560 currently. A test of this coral may well hold though.
So a fairly simple plan for the FTSE100 today – dip and rise, watch 7578 for support and 7625 and 7670 for resistance.
S&P500
Closed today but watching the 4215 resistance as fairly key to start with today, and we may see some selling from this level. Probably wont get as low as the pivot though, which is at 4127 though I have drawn the arrow going there just in case it gets some momentum. We may see the 4200 level get defended instead.
DAX40
Bulls certainly gaining some momentum now, and the 14730 level is in sight where we have the 200ema on the daily. Again, we may well see a dip from R1 this time at 14634, down to to backtest the key fib at 14450. If so then a bounce here may well then play out. Below that then the 14300 level is the Hull MA on the 2h though I don’t think we will get that low today. 14500 looks decent support with the 30m coral and the 25ema in this area.
Good luck today.
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Nice drop off the 7625 down to the 7679 support. Bit of a bounce here….