BoE looms with 50bps still expected | 7432 7463 resistance | 7375 7350 support

BoE looms with 5-bps still expected | 7432 7463 resistance | 7375 7350 support

FTSE100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

The FTSE 100 ended slightly lower after US-China tensions flared up and tumbling homebuilder stocks countered strong results from oil major BP. The index slipped 0.1pc to close out a choppy session dominated by concerns that US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan would worsen Beijing-Washington relations.

Investors sought safer assets after China threatened repercussions if Pelosi visited the self-ruled island, which Beijing claims as its territory.

Stocks stabilized in Asia on Wednesday, helped by a climb in Hong Kong, as some of the investor anxiety over fraught US-China ties eased. Treasuries pared a slide sparked by hawkish Federal Reserve comments.

Equity markets in China and Japan also pushed higher, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures fluctuated after a dip in Wall Street shares on Tuesday.

Asia-Pacific bond yields followed U.S. Treasury yields higher on Wednesday and the dollar continued its climb after Federal Reserve officials signalled they are nowhere near done raising interest rates.

Yields were also helped as demand for the safest assets retreated following U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s safe arrival in Taiwan, despite threats of action from China, which views the island as a breakaway province. The safe-haven yen continued its slide.

That lifted stocks in Asia, despite the slide on Wall Street overnight.

U.S. stock futures edged 0.07% higher, following the S&P 500’s 0.67% drop yesterday.

FTSE100 live outlook prediction analysis for 3rd August 2022

And the BoE interest rate news looms closer with the announcement tomorrow… 50bps still expected. The S&P managed to get to the Hull MA at 4140 after all yesterday though it dropped back quite rapidly from there. 4132 is resistance today to start with so if we get a rise and dip play out we may well see that stall there. The bulls once again need to defend the 4075 area and we have a cluster of supports here.

That will probably translate into a similar move for the FTSE100 today with a rise to test the 7430 area once again, and with the R1 level here we could see the bears try again. Overnight we dropped down to the 7375 support level but have slowly climbed back overnight.

Above the 7433 level then the bulls will be looking at 7464 R2, and then that daily level at 7513. Might be a big ask to get that high though ahead of the BoE tomorrow.

The bears meanwhile will be looking to at least retest the overnight low at 7375, and if they were able to push below that then the 7350 level is decent support for today. We have the key fib and S2 here, along with the bottom of the 10d Raff channel.

Should 7350 break this week though (or even today) then a drop down to the 25ema on the daily chart at 7303 now (and also matching the 200ema on the daily) would likely be the target and a decent support area. The daily chart has remained bullish for the moment with the positive bullish moving averages, so a drop down to the support would make sense.

Generally today I am thinking that we will get a dip and rise play out with that 7350 level looking likely to get tested.

S&P500
It looks to be set to remain in the current range of 4075 – 4132 at the moment and trading off these two outer levels still make sense. The 2h chart remains bearish so the bulls will need to break and hold above 7145 really. The daily Raff channels are also heading up which suggests that the bulls would defend the dips for the time being.

Good luck today.

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