FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help
After a poor morning on Friday, the FTSE 100 regained some of its ground as Wall Street opened. London’s leading index closed down after a strong week that has seen it gain nearly 2pc, even though Friday saw it shed 0.2pc to 7,661. My S&P500 short from 4527 is still running.
Stocks slid Monday and crude oil extended a rally as geopolitical risks over Ukraine rippled through global markets, supporting demand for havens such as sovereign debt.
An Asia-Pacific equity index fell over 1%, with markets from Japan to China and Hong Kong — which is also facing a Covid outbreak — in the red. Energy stocks bucked the trend, climbing as oil added to an eight-week winning run.
European futures slid and those for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were stable after sharp Wall Street losses Friday. Treasuries pared gains from the end of last week, while bonds in Australia and New Zealand rose. The dollar was firm.
Tensions over Russia’s military buildup near Ukraine are entering a potentially decisive week, with the U.S. warning an invasion may be imminent and President Vladimir Putin accusing America of failing to meet his demands.
Russia has repeatedly denied it plans to invade its neighbor, and a diplomatic push to try to resolve the situation is continuing.
The uncertainty is dealing another blow to markets that are already skittish about inflation and the prospect of aggressive Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes to tame it. A deterioration in Ukraine could stoke concerns about price pressures if supplies of Russian energy and Ukrainian grain are disrupted.
Imminent Invasion?
Tensions over Russia’s military buildup near Ukraine are entering a potentially decisive week, with the U.S. warning an invasion may be imminent and President Vladimir Putin accusing America of failing to meet his demands. Key leaders have visited Moscow for talks with Putin and Joe Biden spent an hour on the phone with him Saturday but no apparent progress has been made.
Rising Prices
Get ready for even higher fuel bills and food prices. Oil’s surge toward $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014 is threatening to further dent growth prospects and drive up inflation. That’s a worrying combination for the U.S. Federal Reserve and fellow central banks as they seek to contain the strongest price pressures in decades without derailing recoveries from the pandemic. Much of the world will take a hit as companies and consumers find their bills rising and spending power squeezed by costlier food, transportation and heating.
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 14th February 2022
Well that was an interesting Friday with the S&P selling off sharply (nice to be on it though!) but the FTSE once again proving quite resilient. The FTSE100 eventually dropped down to the daily support at 7579 and we may well see that tested this morning for a double bottom bounce at this level. The bulls will certainly be keen to defend that as a break would likely lead down to the next daily support level at the 7515 area.
We may well see a rise and dip play out today. I have just taken some profit off the S&P short at 4423, and am thinking that the 4400 level will hold on any dip lower this morning. Will trail the stop on the rest of the S&P short – currently at 4470.
Generally the FTSE doesn’t look in too bad a shape, its still around the the 7600 level and if the US fortunes reverse we may yet see that push past 7700. For today though I am looking at an initial dip down to the 7579 level and then a climb towards the R1 and 2h resistance level at the 7650 area. We also have R1 at 7655 to start with today and if the S&P manages to rise to its 4465 resistance area then we could see the bears reappear here for another attempt lower.
As I have previously mentioned seasonally this part of February is traditionally weak, and then we usual see some bullishness come back in towards the end of the month. We may well see that again, especially if things calm down with he Ukraine situation. Of course, bear in mind it may not calm down and markets will be spooked if it continues to ramp up!
Above the 7655 level then the bulls may well be able to push towards the 7688 again, and then we have 7715 above that. Seems a big ask but you never know!
Support wise, 7580 and 7515 as mentioned, and its worth also noting that we have the bottom of the ascending 10 day Raff channel at 7550. Both the Raff channels are still heading up as well. A lot will depend on the S&P holding the 4400 level. A break of that is quite bearish and the bottom of the 10 day Raff at 4350 today beckons. That would probably have some bearish effect on the FTSE100 as well and pull it down towards the 7515 level.
So, looking for a rise and dip to play out with the 7580 holding first thing with 7655-7670 resistance . Good luck today.
Recommended Broker
IC Markets – offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!
Membership and Live Trading
If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
What you get
- Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
- Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
- Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates
Keep up to date with new content, free sign up below with just your email address