FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help
The FTSE 100 closed higher Monday as surging oil prices boosted energy stocks, although concerns about inflation and several broker downgrades kept a check on its overall gain. The commodity-heavy index rose 0.5pc to 7,442, hitting its highest level in more than two weeks, driven by gains in Shell and BP, which tracked a jump of more than $4 in the price of crude oil.
A selloff in bonds deepened Tuesday and U.S. equity futures wavered after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell struck a more hawkish tone on the central bank’s campaign against high inflation.
Treasuries extended losses and Australian and New Zealand debt slid after short-dated U.S. yields Monday posted one of the biggest daily climbs of the past decade. The gap between five-year and 30-year U.S. yields is around the smallest since 2007, a sign of worry that Fed tightening will sap the economy.
U.S. and European futures dipped, while Asian stocks rose partly on a climb in export-reliant Japan amid a weaker yen. Hong Kong pushed higher, bolstered by Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s ramped up, $25 billion share buyback program.
Powell said the Fed is prepared to raise interest rates by 50 basis points at the next policy meeting if needed. The central bank hiked by a quarter-point last week and signaled six more such moves this year. The dollar advanced.
Oil’s rally continued, with Russia’s war in Ukraine nearing the one-month mark and no conclusion in sight. There are signs the European Union may be edging closer to a ban on Russian crude imports to punish Moscow for its invasion.
EU leaders are deadlocked over whether to hit the Russian energy sector with crippling sanctions as fury mounts over the Kremlin’s “war crimes” in Ukraine. The price of oil surged to nearly $115 a barrel on Monday as diplomats began a fresh push for an embargo on Moscow’s oil exports. France, Ireland and Baltic states such as Lithuania signalled support for a tougher line, but they faced opposition from countries including Germany and Hungary.
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 22nd March 2022
A bit of a consolidation day yesterday as the bulls managed to hold it around the 7455 resistance level for most of the day. Not a great deal of movement though which suggests that we may well break one way or the other soon. Overnight the 2h chart has gone bearish with the Hull moving average showing the 7480 area as resistance to start with today so I am thinking that we may well get a rise to that area to start with. Just prior to that we would have the first test of the daily coral at 7470 as well which would be the first test since it went red on 4th March.
We also have the key fib at 7483 and above this then the bulls will be looking towards 7500 round number and 7552 R3 above that. There is higher daily resistance at 7555 as well so should the bulls manage this area then a short here is worth a go. That said I think that the 7480 area will be decent resistance to start with this morning and we get a dip and later rise playing out today.
For the bears they will be looking to break below the daily pivot at 7428 this morning as that would open up a test of the daily support at the 7330 level where we have EMA support, and interestingly the daily chart is just starting to go bullish now. We could see the 7330 lock in as support today if the bulls defend, which would set up a strong bullish end to March. Also lends weight to the breakout north argument!
En-route to 7330 we have initial support at 7389 S1 and the key fib at 7381 so any slide may well find support here.
For the S&P500 I am thinking that we will get a rise towards the 30m coral to start with at 4465 and may see the bears have a go here for a drop down to the 4425 support area that has held well a few times so far. Above the 4465 level then 2h chart is now bearish as per the FTSE, and has 4480 as resistance. Again, a short here is worth a go as well. Bear Tuesday, at least initially maybe…… 4410 is the 2h coral support should 4425 break.
The Dax should rise towards the key fib and R1 level at 14400 and again, we may see the bears appear here. Above this the 2h chart has resistance at the 14500 level. Decent support at the 14180-14200 area.
So, could be an interesting one today with a rise and dip, and then a rise later looks like it will play out.
Good luck today.
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