FTSE100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help
Asian shares climbed Monday to build on gains made on Wall Street, while the euro advanced as investors weighed the prospect of Europe following the Federal Reserve with more outsized interest-rate hikes. Japanese and Australian equities rose, and US futures were steady after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 snapped three-week losing streaks on Friday. Crude oil dropped more than 1.5% amid concerns that global demand is softening. Markets in China, Hong Kong and South Korea are closed for holidays Monday.
Asian share markets rallied on Monday on hopes a key reading on U.S. inflation will show some cooling, while the U.S. dollar was restrained by the risk of higher European interest rates and Japanese intervention.
Holidays in China and South Korea made for slow trading, while traders were unsure what implications Ukraine’s surprising success against Russian forces might have.
Wall Street looked to extend Friday’s bounce and S&P 500 futures edged up 0.1%, while Nasdaq futures gained 0.2%. EUROSTOXX 50 futures gained 0.7% and FTSE futures 0.3%.
Bulls are hoping Tuesday’s reading on U.S. consumer prices will hint at a peak for inflation as falling petrol prices are seen pulling down the headline index by 0.1%, according to a Reuters poll. The core is forecast to rise 0.3%, though some analysts see a chance of a softer report.
A soft number might revive speculation the Federal Reserve will only hike by 50 basis points this month, though it would likely have to be very weak to have a real impact given how stridently hawkish policymakers have been recently.
Oil prices have also been trending lower amid concerns about a global economic slowdown, though cuts to supply did prompt a 4% bounce on Friday. Early Monday, Brent was down $1.29 at $91.55, while U.S. crude shed $1.28 to $85.51 per barrel.
Ukraine Advance
Ukraine’s forces continued their rapid advance in the Kharkiv region on Sunday, exploiting an extraordinary collapse of Russian defenses and raising the question of how far they can go. Unconfirmed reports overnight suggested Kyiv’s troops had taken Velykyi Burluk, a town about 90 kilometers (56 miles) east of Kharkiv and not far from the Russia-Ukraine border. The town of Chkalovske was also retaken, and all eyes are on strategically located Izyum. Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron urged Russia to withdraw weaponry from around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.
FTSE100 live outlook prediction analysis for 12th September 2022
The bulls will be keen to build on the momentum from Friday to start the week though we have tested the top of the 20d Raff channel overnight at 7400 and see a small reaction here so far.
I would like to see a dip and rise play out today with any drop down to the pivot at 7341 holding this morning for another leg up to 7400 and possibly even the 7430 R1 level.
If the bears were to break below the pivot though then S1 at 7290, along with the 20ema on the 30m here, would likely be the next key level to keep an eye on. I am not expecting us to get this low though and we may well see bull Monday play out today. The S&P bulls will certainly be keen to try and crack the 4100 level and the top of the 10d Raff channel here.
For the FTSE100 bulls, a break above the 7400 level sees 7430 as mentioned, but then above that they will be aiming for the 7500 level really, though we have R2 at 7476 which will likely see a stutter.
It’s all eyes on the US inflation reading tomorrow really as that may show that we are past peak inflation in the US (in the short term anyway) and with energy prices dipping that should help.
News just out as I write this – UK Monthly GDP (3M/3M) Jul: 0.0% (est 0.1%; prev -0.1%) – UK Monthly GDP (M/M) Jul: 0.2% (est 0.3%; prev -0.6%)
With Fridays rise, the 2h chart has gone bullish and the rising Hull MA support is at the 7320 area but rising fairly steeply. If we get a dip down to this 7320-7340 area then we may well see it hold so keep an eye on this area for support as well. The price has also moved above the 25ema on the daily chart now which is at 7357 so again, the bulls will certainly be keen to defend today.
Not too much more to say really, looking for a dip and rise to play out and any dip to the 2h support – 7320ish on FTSE100, 4020ish on S&P500, 13050 Dax40 – to hold for another leg up after that.
Good luck today.
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