FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help
The FTSE 100 ended down 0.2% yesterday following a subdued market reaction to surging inflation and Rishi Sunak’s Spring Statement. Housebuilders, travel and retail stocks were among the biggest decliners on the blue-chip index as traders focused on the surge in in February’s consumer price index to 6.2pc.
BP and Shell bucked the downward trend, rising 4.9pc and 3.9pc respectively as oil price rose and they dodged a windfall tax on energy giants. Reckitt Benckiser was among the biggest laggards, falling 4pc after Jefferies downgraded the consumer good giant to “underperform.”
The domestically-focused FTSE 250 dropped 0.5pc after the Chancellor’s update failed to soothe nerves about inflation.
Stocks in Asia struggled back from early lows after a tough session for global equities, while oil turned lower as investors assess the risks of rising inflation and the impact of the war in Ukraine. Treasuries held losses.
An MSCI Inc. gauge of Asia-Pacific equities fell for the first day in three as equities in Japan declined. The Hang Seng erased losses, though Tencent Holdings Ltd. weighed on tech stocks after reporting its slowest pace of quarterly growth on record. U.S. futures edged higher after the S&P 500 erased the prior session’s gains, and European contracts fluctuated.
Treasuries look shaky again, and resumed their slide to unprecedented losses. Investors returned to the market in U.S. trade, snapping up a sale of 20-year bonds and driving the benchmark 10-year yield back to 2.3%. The dollar edged higher.
Oil reversed its earlier advance to trade around $113 a barrel amid reports that the U.S. and European Union are close to a deal aimed at slashing Europe’s dependence on Russian energy, while President Joe Biden’s prepares to announce new sanctions on Russia.
The extreme volatility in commodity markets caused by the conflict and global response is sapping liquidity, according to some of the world’s biggest trading houses.
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 23rd March 2022
So the Spring Statement came and went and a few little nuggets were dished out but nothing to really make much difference in the grand scheme, apart from the NI threshold being increased. The FTSE100 obviously felt the same failing to hold above the 7500 level and seeing a low at 7420. That said, the daily chart remains bullish with 7350 support from the moving average so a dip down to this level may well find support here.
Initially today I am thinking that we will see a pop back up towards the 7500 level where we have R1 and the key fib for resistance. The EMAs on the 30m are bullish to start with, and are showing the 7450 level as support. Looking at the daily chart again we have a decent range in play at the moment of 7550 resistance and 7350 support.
Above the 7500 level then the bulls will be looking to test the top of that range at 7550, and then above that 7606 is R3. I think that maybe a big ask for today, particularly as the 30m S&P chart is berths to start with, though never say never!
For the bears, they will be looking to break below that 7450 level as that will likely lead to a test of the 200ema on the 30m at 7428. We climbed off this 200em yesterday as well though a break of that will likely lead to the 7404 key fib support. And then the 7350 as mentioned.
If we were to break 7350 though, then things will get a lot more bearish again, with 7230 200ema on the daily next up.
For the S&P initially we have support at the 4450 level with the 200ema here, though below that, and this may play out today, 4408 is S2 and also daily support. As mentioned above the 30m chart is bearish to start with, and has the 4475 as resistance with a red coral and the daily pivot here. Above this then the bulls will be aiming for 4508 key fib.
The Dax also looks like it will be on for a decent start like the FTSE100 with a rise to the 14418 resistance level. This is the key fib and the 2h Hull MA as well.
So the S&P looks the weakest of the bunch, but we may well see dips defended on that today.
Good luck today.
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