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FTSE100 live outlook prediction analysis for 6th December 2022
Asian stocks retreated as investors weighed unexpectedly strong US services data which fueled bets for a higher Federal Reserve terminal rate. A gauge of regional stocks headed for its lowest close in almost a week, with almost all sectors posting a drop. US futures trimmed an earlier advance following a third day of declines for the S&P 500 on Monday.
The bulls failed to break the 7600 level yesterday though above that 7620 still remains as key resistance. Indeed that has flagged up again today with the R2 and key fib levels here, so should we get arise to this then I can see a drop off from here.
I have plotted two possible routes for today. Blue is plan A, pink is plan B. Initial resistance is at the 7580 level with R1 here, and also the Hull MA on the 2h chart. As such, and with a possible bear Tuesday on the cards, we may well see a drop off from here instead. The S&P500 was pretty weak yesterday and that may well filter though to the FTSE initially. That said it did hold up quite well yesterday after hours while the S&P500 sold off!
7580 is also the now red 2h coral line, and whilst we have already tested that overnight since the colour change, another in hours test and reaction would fit quite well.
If the bulls were able to overshoot the 7580 level, then I am looking for another test of 7600, and possibly that 7620 as mentioned. A short here is worth a go if it gets that high.
Support wise, we have the 30m 200ema to start with at the 7553 level, but lower down stronger support is at the 7519 key fib, and also 7510 for S2. S1 for today is at the 7534 level though if the bears get some momentum behind them I expect we will dip through this.
Lower support is then at the round number 7500, and with the 10d Raff here, and also the 20d Raff just below we should in theory see this level hold. We still haven’t had the test of the 25ema on the daily which sits at 7408 for the moment. Bear in mind that seasonal chart I posted yesterday as that does have a wobble at the start of December till the bulls reappeared in earnest for the Santa Rally.
S&P500 may well see a drop down to the S1 level today at 3970 and I would like to see this hold. The bulls will want to recapture the 4000 level though we have strong resistance at 4020-4030 today with the daily pivot and the 200ema here. As such, like the FTSE, a rise to this then a drop down would make sense.
For the Dax40, 14500 is the Hull MA 2h resistance level, and also just above the 30m 200ema, This should see a bearish reaction off it gets that high this morning, and a drop down to the key fib support at 14357 may well play out. If that gets tested then a bounce off this is likely. Key fib resistance is at the 14555 level so also keep an eye on that level.
Good luck today.
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