Quick recovery hopes | Trade deal | Lockdown eases | 6266 6200 6185 support | 6354 6375 resistance

Quick recovery hopes | Trade deal | Lockdown eases | 6266 6200 6185 support | 6354 6375 resistance

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 24th June 2020

  • UK manufacturing sector grows – by the slightest margin – in June
  • Services activity continues to drop but shows signs of stabilisation
  • French activity rises, Germany continues to fall
  • FTSE climbs after Trump confirms US-China trade deal is ‘fully intact’ and Boris Johnson outlines easing restrictions
  • Cost of Government’s Covid-19 support schemes passes £70bn

Here’s a quick recap of what happened Tuesday:

  • European and US stocks rallied today as data boosted hopes of a quick economic recovery.
  • President Donald Trump dampened fears of a US-China trade deal collapsing.
  • Private sector economic activity in the eurozone and UK shrank further in June but the rates of decline slowed compared with the worst of the coronavirus lockdown.
  • The main European markets gained more than one percent, while Wall Street stocks were also pushing higher in late morning trading.
  • Oil prices, which had fallen around two percent on Navarro’s remarks, rebounded Tuesday by similar amounts before paring gains.

Stocks in Europe closed in positive territory as traders welcomed news of lockdown restrictions in England from July 4. The FTSE 100 jumped 1.21pc to 6,320.12 while the FTSE 250 gained 0.49pc, closing at 17,660.09.

Second Wave

Anthony Fauci, the U.S. government’s top infectious-disease expert, told Congress he was seeing a “disturbing surge” in new cases. As many as 31 states have R0 figures above 1, according to the Rt.live website, meaning that each person with the virus infects at least one other. Newly diagnosed cases of Covid-19 and other indicators of the pandemic’s spread soared in hot spots across the U.S., driving city and state officials to consider slowing or reversing reopening plans. Cases are surging in Texas, Florida, Arizona and in California, which on Tuesday broke its record for new cases for the fourth day in the past week. Coronavirus infections in the U.S. increased by 35,695 from the same time Monday to 2.33 million, according to data collected by Johns Hopkins University and Bloomberg News. The 1.6% gain was higher than the average daily increase of 1.3% the past seven days. The World Trade Organization said its worst-case scenario for cross-border commerce this year will likely be avoided, depending on whether there’s a second wave of outbreaks. Novak Djokovic, the world’s leading men’s tennis player, tested positive for Covid-19 days after an exhibition tournament in the Balkans featuring him was cut short. England eased more restrictions as deaths continued to fall.

More U.S. Stimulus

The Trump administration is discussing another stimulus package with lawmakers that could be passed in July, the latest effort to revive the U.S. economy amid the coronavirus pandemic, said Steven Mnuchin. The U.S. treasury secretary said Tuesday in an interview during the Bloomberg Invest Global virtual event that he expects the American economy to exit recession by year’s end. President Donald Trump has said he’s considering sending another round of economic stimulus payments in a rescue package that he expects will be released “over the next couple of weeks.”[Bloomberg]


FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

Global stocks and equity futures were mixed Wednesday as investors weighed their appetite for risk assets against a continuing acceleration in coronavirus cases across the American sun belt. The dollar remained under pressure. U.S. futures ticked higher, while European contracts retreated. Shares slipped in Tokyo but climbed in Seoul after Kim Jong Un suspended military actions against South Korea. Treasuries were litle changed. New Zealand’s dollar reversed gains after the central bank said the balance of economic risks remained to the downside.

We have dropped off a bit overnight and the 30min coral line is now showing initial resistance at the 6310 area, along with the 100 Hull MA on the 2 hour at 6304. As such the bulls will need to break this area this morning to regain some ground above the 6310 level to still target that 6375 level that we have had pencilled in all week. We also have R1 at 6350 for today so may see a stutter here again to double top with yesterday, if the bulls do start buying it up again today.

Something else of note is that today is the first day that the 10 day Raff channel has started heading up again, so this period of consolidation (sideways chop!) has built a bit more of a foundation for a possible push higher over the next few sessions/weeks.

If the bulls were to break above the 6375 level then 6422 is R2, and we are also on a path towards the top of the Raff channels, which are both at the 6582 level, along with the 200ema on the daily chart at 6567. If the S&P can lock in the 3130 level as support now then we may well see a rise to 3200+ on that, which would likely pull the FTSE (and others) up with it. The S&P 2 hour chart remains bullish and 3117 is now the coral support.

For the bears, they will be looking to break that initial support at the 6265 level. We also have the 200ema on the 30min chart here, so it looks to be decent support to start with, and worth a long here. Below this then the 6211 level has a key fib support and may well see a bounce here. Also the round number support of 6200. Below this then 6185 which is the recent low, followed by a possible test of the 6110 level. Not sure we will get that low today though as the US will be keen to lock in the recent gains and keep them going.

So for today, looking at the initial support at 6266, then 6211 below that. Resistance at 6310 then 6375. Good luck today.

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