FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 16th June 2021
Today’s big event is the Fed later and we may well continue to tread water this morning ahead of that at 1900 this evening. Interestingly, with the S&P dropping off the 4265 resistance level yesterday and never regaining that level the 2h chart has gone bearish with 4256 resistance – if we get a rise to that during today ahead of the Fed then we may well see some bears appear here. Also a bit more profit taking ahead of the Fed as well.
That would tally with a rise on the FTSE 100 to the 7223 resistance level on the daily chart, along with the key fib also at this level. I quite like a short at this level. Rise and dip may well play out today. Below that level then we have R1 at 7195 and R2 at 7211. R3 is at 7232 so not too far above that daily level and we also have the top of the 10 day Raff channel at 7232 as well. As such, this upper resistance area certainly looks like it should get a reaction. Above here though and the 7246 level is the top of the 20 day Raff and the next daily level is 7260 above that. I dont think we will get that high today but if we did then a short here is worth a go.
For the bears they will need to break below the daily pivot support at 7174 to start with. The futures have held up well overnight and as such the bulls remain in control (just!) for the moment. Below the 7174 level then 7146 is the next decent support where we have the 200ema and just below the 2h coral as well, with 7129 below this for the key fib level. 7137 is also the R2 level, and just above that key fib so I would like to see this defended if it were to be tested.
Looking at the daily chart both the Raff channels are firmly heading up (and also the same on the Dax and S&P) so we may well see a bit more upside for the moment but we are getting closer to the seasonal bearish period at the back end of June and a dip down into July may well play out soon. So cautiously bullish for the moment! I imagine we will start to see some risk off kicking in soon – maybe next week. A lot of todays action will depend on the Fed today and positioning for that. A rise and dip (buy the rumour sell the news) would certainly fit fairly well.
Good luck today.
FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis
London’s FTSE 100 has returned to its highest point since the start of a Covid-19 crash that wiped hundreds of billions of pounds off the index last year. Blue-chips ticked back up to 7,172.5 after gaining another 25.8 points on Tuesday, to its highest close since Feb 21 2020, the last day before the pandemic gripped the markets. It was on the next trading day, Feb 24 2020, that the top flight had its biggest fall in more than four years with around £62bn wiped off the index.
The FTSE 100 was lifted by gains in consumer staples and energy stocks, although a delay in lifting remaining restrictions in England curbed sentiment across the overall market. The more domestically focused FTSE 250 lost 112.8 points to close at 22,631.7.
Oil majors Shell and BP also helped to buoy the benchmark for a second day, as they continued to track crude prices and on forecasts from commodity traders that costs could reach as high as $100 per barrel. In contrast, miners Antofagasta, Anglo American, Fresnillo and Glencore were among the worst performers on the FTSE 100. Copper’s stellar rally started to creak as investors unwind their bullish bets ahead of this week’s US Federal Reserve meeting that may give clues on future monetary policy.
Asian stocks saw muted trading Wednesday after their U.S. peers retreated from all-time highs, with investors awaiting a policy decision from the Federal Reserve. Crude oil traded at the highest since 2018.
Shares were modestly higher in Japan and Australia, while South Korean stocks led gains. Hong Kong and Chinese equities slipped. U.S. futures were little changed. Earlier, weakness in the technology and real estate sectors helped snap a three-day winning streak for S&P 500 Index.
Copper reversed gains after China ordered state firms to curb overseas commodities exposure as the government seeks to exercise control over soaring raw materials prices. The 10-year Treasury yield held around 1.5%. The dollar was steady versus major peers.
Markets are in a holding pattern ahead of the Fed’s policy decision as investors await clues about when the central bank will slow the pace of emergency asset purchases. The statement is set to include updated projections for interest rates and economic forecasts, and expectations are that officials would broadcast any taper plans well in advance.
Economists expect the so-called dot plot to point to an interest-rate increase in 2023, while the bank is unlikely to signal a scaling back of bond purchases until later this year.
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