FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 30th March 2020
Worldwide stock markets fell sharply on Friday, putting an end to this week’s three-day surge that suggested the slump caused by the coronavirus pandemic had bottomed out. The FTSE 100 closed down more than 5pc, while Wall Street indices also fell after the US overtook China as the country with the most confirmed cases of Covid-19. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 traded around 2pc down, having climbed more than 20pc in the previous three days, a short-lived bull market fuelled by progress on US stimulus measures.
The drop was seen as a result of some investors taking profits after this week’s gains, but also illustrated continued nerves about the economic fallout from the virus, and concerns about governments’ abilities to combat it. The Vix, a measure of stock market volatility often referred to as the “fear gauge”, climbed sharply. The FTSE’s drop was partly linked to a rise in the pound’s value against the dollar, with companies that make most of their profits abroad falling. Meanwhile, a slump in the oil price due to fears over global demand weighed on energy giants.
Stocks in Asia fell in morning trade on Monday, as fears about the impact of the spreading coronavirus continued. Oil prices also slumped to a 17-year low after the death toll from the pandemic surged past 30,000 at the weekend as cases in hard-hit Europe and the United States rocketed. Japan’s Nikkei dropped 2.7% and Shanghai blue chips 1.8%. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan lost 0.7%, though that was up from early lows. E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 also recouped early losses to edge up 0.3%, perhaps thanks to month-end demand. EUROSTOXXX 50 futures firmed 0.5% and FTSE futures went flat.
FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis
Despite a drop as markets in Asia opened, and the FTSE futures hitting the 5350 level, we have since seen a sustained bounce and are now back above the 5500 level on the futures. Can the bulls hold onto it? The ASX200 (Australia) had a fairly decent up trending session since opening and we may well see something similar as we retrace Fridays fall from the 5750 level. Initially we have resistance from the fib level at 5630, so its possible that we stutter here and see a drop back towards the support on the 30min chart at the 5485 level. Overnight low at 5340 is support below this. Can we can get a rise for a test of the 2 hour resistance at the 5730 level?
Having dropped off the 20 day Raff last week at 5850, we may well see a retest of that, which sits at 5775 for the moment, but the bulls will be keen to push past this as that then opens up a test of the 10 day Raff at 6100. With the stimulus bill passed and the charts indicating a technical bounce is likely, we may well start to see some more upside. However, the fundamentals are still pretty bearish., and the number of coronavirus cases continues to rise globally. Far from out of the woods yet, and most countries remain on lock down.
The S&P has 2 hour resistance at 2587 to start with today so the bulls will be keen to break that as that will then mean a retest of the 20 day Raff channel at 2612. A break out above this and as per the FTSE, the top of the 10 day channel comes into play at 2726, if they can break above 2650. Decent support is down at the 2420 to 2440 area.
So for today I am thinking that we will get a dip and a rise. Good luck today.
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