FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 31st March 2020
Global markets mixed in cautious start to week. Despite the late rally, Europe was still mixed at the close. In London the FTSE 100 managed to eke out gains, closing 0.91pc higher to 5,560.53 while the FTSE 250 dropped 0.97pc at 14,626.89. The UK house building sector was largely in the red as banks last week pulled a large portion of their mortgage products after the government discouraged people to move during the health crisis. Both Taylor Wimpey and Persimmon lead the fallers in the industry.
Oil
Some of Monday’s sharpest action was in the oil market, where benchmark US crude fell more than 5pc and touched below $20 per barrel for the first time since early 2002. The huge oversupply is further collapsing the oil market and there may be further falls to come as the world quickly runs out of storage capacity. The slump in demand has shut refineries from South Africa to Canada. Prices are on track for the worst quarter on record. Goldman Sachs estimates consumption will drop by 26m barrels a day this week as measures to contain the coronavirus hurt global GDP.
Forever Changed
BlackRock Chief Executive Officer Larry Fink predicted the economy will eventually recover from the coronavirus outbreak, though he said the crisis will reshape investor psychology, business practices and consumer habits. The pandemic that swept through nations across the globe this year is causing people to re-evaluate “just-in-time” supply chains and dependence on air travel, Fink wrote in his annual letter to shareholders dated Sunday. “In my 44 years in finance, I have never experienced anything like this,” Fink wrote, adding that “as dramatic as this has been, I do believe that the economy will recover steadily, in part because this situation lacks some of the obstacles to recovery of a typical financial crisis.” The world’s largest asset manager is overseeing three separate debt-buying programs on behalf of the Federal Reserve. [Bloomberg]
FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis
Asian stocks traded mixed and U.S. equity futures fluctuated as a volatile quarter for global financial markets came to an end.
S&P 500 futures pared gains after hitting their highs Tuesday morning on a stronger-than-anticipated China manufacturing index. Shares fell in Japan and Australia, and climbed in South Korea and Hong Kong. Crude oil jumped, more than reversing a slump in New York Monday. The yen sank as the end of Japan’s fiscal year brought positioning adjustments. Treasury yields retreated.
The S&P once again tested the 2643 level overnight and has dropped off slightly to 2618 as I write this. The FTSE equally has also dropped off 5650 but now has support in play to start with this morning at 5500 to 5530, as we have the daily pivot, 200ema and coral on the 30min all in this area to act as support. I have not put it in the trade plan as need to see how we open but a long at 5505 could be worth a go.
If that holds initially then we may well see a rise back up to the 5600 area before some more bearish action. The ASX200 had a trending down session during Tuesday, and if the S&P cant break above 2650 for the moment then we may well see something similar. The bulls really need to break above the 5762 R2 level today to lock in some decent foundations for a rise back towards 5900+.
Support below the daily pivot (5505) is at the ket fib level 5471 and as such we may see an early test of this hold, at least initially. Should the bears break below this then 5350 once again is on the cards once again, and should hold. If not then a slide down to test the bottom of the 10 day Raff channel around 5200 looks likely today/tomorrow.
Just looking at the S&P again, we have dropped off the 2645 level a few times now, and therefore this level is fairly key for the bulls to break. Should they do so then I expect a rise towards the top of the 10 day Raff channel as you can see that is heading up pretty well in the chart below. 2688 is the 25ema on the daily and would probably be the first level to look for, followed by 2850 then the 200ema 2980ish. Market wise the recovery will be looking quite good at that point. 2645 therefore looking fairly key still. A failure to break that and the bottom of the Raff 10 day channel is at 2350…
So for the FTSE today, I am looking at 5672 as the main resistance level and 5470 and 5350 as the main supports, and am thinking that we jay see a slightly bearish session today. Bull Monday, bear Tuesday pattern may well play out, but I am half expecting some more upside across the board as things feel a bit calmer at the moment.
Recommended Broker
IC Markets – offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!
Membership and Live Trading
If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
What you get
- Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
- Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
- Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates
Keep up to date with new content, free sign up below
[yikes-mailchimp form=”4″]