FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 2nd July 2020
- ADP says US added 2.3m jobs last month – and flips May figure to show 3m gain
- Final UK manufacturing PMI reading suggests sector is stabilising – but firms continue to shed jobs
- Reading of 50.1 indicates activity picked up by the narrowest of margins in June
- Sainsbury’s sees online orders surge
- John Lewis boss warns some stores will close
- Upper Crust owner SSP axes 5,000 staff
- Nationwide says house prices flat year-on-year
- European stocks shake off losses
- Kier shares tumble after it hints at equity raise
Here’s a quick summary of Wednesday’s events:
- Stock markets consolidated their quarterly gains yesterday as worrying corporate news and uncertainty about the coronavirus fallout kept a lid on investor exuberance.
- Equities emerged from the second quarter with impressive gains with the S&P 500, the broadest of the three major US indices, surging 20pc for the quarter, the biggest such gain since 1998.
- SSP, the British owner of food outlets in railway stations and airports worldwide, said #it was eyeing 5,000 UK job cuts.
- Improving economic data did little to reassure investors.
- European stock markets were all modestly lower at the close
- Oil prices jumped as investors cheered news that Saudi exports had tumbled in June, indicating it was sticking to a massive output agreement with other major producers including Russia.
European stock markets were all modestly lower at the close, while on Wall Street the Dow Jones also slipped into negative territory, giving up its opening gains. The FTSE 100 closed 0.19pc lower to 6,157.96 while the FTSE 250 climbed 0.42pc to 17,189.43. Stocks saw a lot of volatility as health concerns weighed on sentiment in the morning, but the mood picked up on hopes of a Covid-19 vaccine. Worries about the rising number of cases on the back of economies being reopened was a factor in the losses that were incurred in the first few hours of the session. The tick up in tensions in Hong Kong also contributed to the negative move. Beijing have introduced a controversial law that will give it more control over the former British Overseas Territory, and that could impact China’s international relations.
Markets Lift (Bloomberg)
Asian stocks looked set to follow U.S. shares higher with modest gains after positive vaccine developments and better-than-expected manufacturing data tempered concern over a jump in coronavirus cases. Treasuries and the dollar fell. Futures rose in Japan and Australia, with Hong Kong due to reopen after a holiday. The S&P 500 rose for a third day while the Nasdaq Composite jumped to a record as an early trial of an experimental shot from Pfizer and BioNtech showed it’s safe and prompted patients to produce antibodies. Traders also monitored minutes of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting that revealed various participants viewed the economy needing support “for some time.” A closely watched measure of manufacturing jumped in June to the highest in more than a year.
FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis
Asian stocks climbed Thursday after positive vaccine developments and U.S. data tempered concern over a jump in coronavirus cases. Treasuries and the dollar held losses. Hong Kong shares outperformed after returning from a holiday, despite the recent tensions over China’s new national security law over the city. Stocks in Australia, China, Japan and South Korea also rose. U.S. futures ticked higher after the S&P 500 rose for a third day and the Nasdaq Composite jumped to a record. An early trial of an experimental shot from Pfizer Inc. and BioNtech SE showed it was safe, and prompted patients to produce antibodies.
Wasn’t really expecting a drop down to the daily support level at 6090 yesterday as it was the start of the month but the bears managed to do so. However that level held and we got a rally back to 6200 from that point, and it remains looking positive. The S&P held above the 3100 level in the end, stalled slightly as it got near to 3130, but if the bulls can break above that then the top of the 10 day channel for today is at 3145 and the next target to aim for, on their march for 3200 and the top of the 20 day channel. If that plays out then we should well see that strength carry through into the FTSE 100 as well, and the top of the 10 day channel for us is at 6350 and a level that we may well shortly see.
Today is the last trading day for the USA this week as well as they are closed for the Independence Day holiday tomorrow. We also therefore have the non farm payroll data out today, forecast at 3000k versus 2509k previously. Buy the rumour sell the news maybe today?
For the FTSE there is initial resistance at 6205 which is the fib level and overnight high. We may well see a drop off this down to the pivot at 6155, and we also have the green 30min coral here. Buy the dip I am thinking today. Slightly above this is the 100 Hull MA on the 2 hour chart at 6179 to start with, but we have already dipped below this overnight. So basically its the bulls to lose at the moment, and if the pivot area ta 6155 holds then I am thinking that we will see a rise towards the 6265 level at least (recent high area) and possibly R2 at 6275. We may then see some profit taking ahead of the news as essentially its end of week (FTSE will be fairly flat tomorrow I expect) as the S&P continues to grind higher.
If the bears break the 6155 level then 6117 is the fib level and the next key support level. After that then yesterdays low again, with the 6050 daily support below that. The daily coral is still green and has now risen to the 6016 level so if the bears were to get it down here then we may well see this area hold – this is also just above the bottom of the 10 day Raff channel.
So, looking for a rise really today and a break of the 6205 resistance level. Also expecting the S&P to break through the 3130 level today but of course keep an eye on the NFP news at 1330 today. Good luck.
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