FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 3rd July 2020
Here’s a quick recap of Thursday:
- Equities rose today as investors cheered encouraging news about progress towards a coronavirus vaccine and a solid recovery in US employment.
- The US economy regained 4.8 million jobs in June as businesses began to reopen nationwide, while the unemployment rate fell more than two points to 11.1pc, the Labor Department reported.
- Wall Street’s main indices shot out of the gate at the opening bell, quickly racking up gains of over 1pc, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite continuing to push into record territory.
- European stocks added to gains, with both Frankfurt and Paris up by more than 2pc.
- Sentiment had already been largely positive after hopes for a vaccine were given a boost when Germany’s BioNTech and US pharmaceutical giant Pfizer late Wednesday reported positive preliminary results from a joint project.
London’s benchmark index closed 1.34pc higher at 6,240.36 while the FTSE 250 climbed 1.04pc to 17,367.86. Investors cheered encouraging news about progress towards a coronavirus vaccine and a solid recovery in US employment. Travel stocks and banks were among the big gainers, with airline group IAG rallying 5.7pc
Markets Edge Higher
The S&P 500 posted a modest gain, while the Nasdaq set another record. Treasuries were little changed, with 10-year yields hovering around 0.67%, and the dollar was steady. Gold is on course for a fourth week of gains, sitting just below $1,800 an ounce. Elsewhere, oil closed at its highest level in almost four months before the U.S. holiday weekend. European stocks rallied.
FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis
Stocks in Asia pared gains on low volumes, while European and U.S. equity futures dipped, as investors assessed a better-than-expected U.S. jobs report against lingering concern that new coronavirus hotspots could disrupt the economic recovery.
The US markets are closed today and as such we may have a fairly dull and flat session (famous last words there!). I am watching the 6200 to 6220 area as initial support for today as we have a cluster of supports in this area. If the bears were to break below the 6198 level then 6180 is next up and after that a possible decline down towards 6130 and 6050 after that. I don’t think that we will get that low today unless unexpected news driven.
Yesterday was a bit of a consolidation day on the FTSE but the S&P managed to pull above the 3130 level, helped by the news on jobs, but then retraced back down for that level to hold as support (previous resistance becoming support). 3185 is now the top of the 10 day Raff channel and looks like it might be seen, if the bulls (algo’s today) can pull away from the 3130 level.
The FTSE looks set for a rise initially towards the first resistance level at 6268 where we have a key fib for today and just above the daily level at 6262. Above this we have R1 at 6287 and the next daily resistance level at 6292, so should we break the first level I have put a further short in the plan at this level. Friday, with the US closed, and we we may well see a bit of a slow rise then some profit taking later in the day.
Should the bulls however break above the 6295 cam break out level then 6327 is R2 and would be the next level that they would target. The 2 hour chart remains bullish for the moment, and the bears would need to break below the 6186 level to change that. As such we should still be on a path, in theory at least, for a rise towards the top of the 10 day Raff channel. Of course, the UK starts to open up further on the 4th July, and the market may well start to rise on hopes that the economy can get moving with a bit more speed. The FTSE rise has certainly lagged other markets though any sort of C-19 spiking will likely impact it.
So, looking at the 6200 area for initial support today and generally expecting a bit of a rise towards 6268 and then 6300ish. We may just well bounce around a bit with not much action. Good luck today and have a great weekend.
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