Will 6645 hold as support? Test the pivot at 6683?

Good morning. Well that was quite a drop on Friday from the Bianca resistance area at 6705, and we are looking at opening around the 6650 area this morning. I think the fairly predictable pattern from last week of dip to the pivot and bounce will probably end now, as we won’t be having the ISA money flowing in wight he last minute rush. That said, we will get some today for the new tax year. Therefore is 6645 holds as support its not all major doom and gloom just yet but Asia was weak overnight and ended their winning streak, I expect UK and US to be the same today. Todays pivot is 6683 so most likely we will rise and dip from there. Financial news over the weekend was fairly thin, after NFP on Friday came in at 192k.

Bianca Trends
Bianca Trends

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks fell for the first time in nine days, snapping the longest winning streak on the regional gauge this year, with telecommunication and technology shares leading declines.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.5 percent to 138.63 as of 12:26 p.m. in Hong Kong, with seven of the 10 industry groups on the measure falling. Losses in Asian technology firms follow the Nasdaq Composite Index’s biggest retreat in two months on April 4, as investors pare holdings in Internet companies that have led gains in global equities during the past 12 months.

“Some parts of the high-tech space were looking bubbly and overvalued, so there’s some much-needed profit taking going on,” said Masaru Hamasaki, a senior strategist at Tokyo-based Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management Co., which oversees about 11 trillion yen ($107 billion). “The rout won’t last long, especially considering the U.S. economic recovery is firm. There may be some change where the selloff in overvalued shares leads to flows into undervalued sectors.”

Regional Gauges
Japan’s Topix index slid 1.2 percent as the yen held gains from April 4, trading at 103.27 per dollar. The Bank of Japan, which begins a two-day policy meeting today, may double purchases of exchange-traded funds as part of a second round of monetary easing, analysts polled by Bloomberg say.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 0.6 percent and the Hang Seng ChinaEnterprises Index of mainland Chinese stocks listed in the city gained 0.3 percent. Markets in mainland China and Thailand are closed for a holiday.

Singapore’s Straits Times Index and Taiwan’s Taiex index dropped 0.5 percent.South Korea’s Kospi index declined 0.3 percent and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index retreated 0.1 percent. New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index lost 0.9 percent. Trading volume on benchmark indexes in Australia and Japan was at least 20 percent below the 30-day average for this time of day, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

US Futures
Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures slipped 0.1 percent today. The gauge fell 1.3 percent April 4, its largest decline since the first week of February, after large technology stocks from Google Inc. to Yahoo Inc. plunged as investors sold the bull market’s biggest winners.

The Asia-Pacific stock gauge climbed last week to a two-month high as U.S. data pointed to a recovery from severe winter weather and China outlined stimulus to ward off a slowdown threatening its economic-growth goal.

Payrolls
Payrolls in the U.S. rose 192,000 last month after a 197,000 gain in February that was larger than first estimated, the Labor Department reported April 4 inWashington. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists projected a 200,000 gain. Private employment, which excludes government jobs, surpassed the pre-recession peak for the first time.

U.S. Rates
“We should stand by for an expectation that the first rise in rates in the U.S. will be the first quarter of 2015,” Richard Gibbs, global head of economics at Macquarie Group Ltd., Australia’s largest investment bank, told Bloomberg TV in Sydney. “The data reaffirmed that trajectory.”

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

We have now dipped below the pivot level for today so the patten of dip to pivot and bounce has come to an end. Which is a shame as that worked pretty much every day last week! I do expect a bit of bearish to creep in now over the next few sessions as we were testing the top of various daily channels for most of last week. We are now at the bottom of the 10 day Bianca channel at 6647 so ideally this level will hold this morning and set us up for an initial climb to the daily pivot at 6683. However, if 6645 support goes then the next support is 6623 and 6600.

On the upside, if the daily pivot were to break (6683) then that 6715 is still possible, and maybe even a test of the top of the Bianca channels again around 6730. The bottom of the daily Raff channel at 6630 is still intact so the bears won’t have it all their way just yet.

50 Comments

  3. Morning everyone. Well that was interesting overnight. Held my long through to 6670 but doesnt look like it wants to push onto the pivot so out for a 10-12 point profit after costs so cant complain. On sidelines now as want to reassess and get a better view where support and resistance levels really are now

  5. Hash agree have cancelled my order from this morning and put a new one in to go long at 6625

    1. my numbers for strategy are totally whack and not in line…at the open and close i get a signal and during the day it totally disappears

        1. this is not good AT ALL…
          strategy showing weakness..gonna hold till end of day (1 more hour) and see if my strategy shows any change otherwise ill close at any loss/profit

          1. I feel that now all the ISA money for last tax year has been sucked in last week (hence all the bounces off the pivot each day) the rest of April will be pretty bearish. Shame it didn’t quite reach 6683 for the short! Had a nice juicy order sat at 82

        2. Yes I got a small long there too – haven’t gotten the nerve to put any more in at the moment!

          Its small enough for me to let it run down to the next support level around 6600 if that is where it takes us. Am hoping for a bit of a rally towards close – but thats me hoping rather than knowing!

          1. Nick dont you think that with the new ISA money that some more will flow in for those waiting. I see last April we rose a reasonable amount for a few days post April 5th – that said it does seem to have lost its strength a lot since Friday afternoon

  8. lool to me it looks like these days i congratulate myself on NOT if i make money (because that hasnt been happening much since start of year) but rather on if i break even 🙁

  9. Long at 6630. FTSE does seem a little lack lustre at the moment – maybe 6610 – but would have thought that around here is as good an entry as any for the time being ………

  11. Mmm order picked up and then spat back at me as I had a tight 10 point stop. Just turned on but said it closed me out at 6616. Looks like 6595 coming

  12. fk sake!!! getting frustrated again and its a MONDAY!!!
    seriously ftse is fuked up..my indicator back on edge of a bearish market!
    appologies for frustrating u guys with my forecast!
    EVEN IM GETTING PISSED OFF – im switching between bearish/bullish multiple times a day and im suppose to be more of a trend follower rather than intraday trader 🙁

      1. lool man 4 months of Breaking even nearly every trade drives u crazy..
        Last year i felt invincible, was sooo good!

    1. I hoping that we might look back no this and go – oh yes there’s a bullish divergence on the indicators ! Great trade…

      2. considering how we are stuck in a range bound market, most likely i will be wrong..i like trading trends – put a trade on and leave 🙂

  14. hmmm so B/E better than a 28 point loss then 🙂
    good that i got out of it…i was gonna short at 26 as well but then thought id take it slow and wait

  17. Can’t see the USA move too much more, s have started entering longs again.
    Will buy the dips. Still think we will see more upside towards the end of April.

    Gl

    1. Well, don’t forget they went up almost 30% last year so I can see much more downside to come…the economy is growing but not the 3,5% or so they expected. In my opinion the recovery over the pond will be long and sluggish and nowhere near what they expected…instead investing in the business they were buying back stock and now they will pay the price for it…

      1. That’s exactly what I said at the start of the year and my post was frowned upon…Lol

        I think the DOW is range bound between 16000-16500, hence my target for almost Zero growth this year on the DOW, it’s hard to explain, but I can see the DOW dropping no more than another 100ish points 🙂

    2. Seems to be in free fall again for the 2nd evening in a row. All closed out as 6600 couldn’t hold. Not sure what to make of it now – was fairly bullish but to have two drops like this in successive days is making me rethink. Best to stay on the sidelines I think

    3. Yes, the Dow’s still in a strongly rising channel. Last year it slumped a bit between 12th and 18th April, but this was followed by a strong rally until late May. (Bernanke still had to do his worst.)

  20. Looking back at todays chart makes me think we’re back to good old fashion trading, S & R, trend lines, averages, action & reaction. The last couple of weeks have been (almost) easy with it’s oscillations.

  22. lol, just looking at charts now. Been busy. What a drop, heheh.
    Now think we will se again the bottom. 6570-6530-6500levels to watch

    1. Honestly shamed to say i agree with u.. especially after my post saying “bull markets!!!”

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