NFP today, 6656 support?

Good morning. An alright day yesterday with the dip to the pivot and then rise (been the pattern all this week so far) however, the rise ran out of puff at 6678 area where we closed half the long (fortunately!), and dropped right back to the 200ema on 30min at 6640ish. However, its since climbed back and of course today is Non Farm Payrolls so its going to be lively later on around 13:30. If the ADP report is anything to go by then NFP will just miss the 200k forecast. For any sort of bullishness to continue for the moment the bulls will need to break 6675 which still leaves 6715 in play.

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Asia’s benchmark stock index swung between gains and losses amid low trading volume, leaving the regional gauge on course for a second week of gains as investors await data on U.S. jobs growth.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 0.1 percent to 138.84 as of 12:01 p.m. in Hong Kong. The gauge yesterday capped a seventh straight advance, its longest winning streak this year, after a private report showed stronger-than-forecast growth in U.S. employment in March. The government’s nonfarm payrolls data due today will show that hiring increased last month by the most since November, economist estimates compiled by Bloomberg show.

“Barring something out of left field, a nothing sort of day is on the cards,” Tony Farnham, a Perth-based analyst at Paterson Securities Ltd., said in an e-mail.
Asian shares are on course for a second week of gains, with Japanese stocks rebounding from last quarter’s slump and Hong Kong equities surging as China outlined economic stimulus plans. The regional measure this week rose 1.7 percent through yesterday, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 2.3 percent.

Japan’s Topix index slid 0.2 percent today, paring its weekly advance to 2.4 percent. Volume was 32 percent below its 30-day average for this time of day. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 0.1 percent, with volume 33 percent lower than average. New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index was little changed and South Korea’s Kospi index retreated 0.2 percent. Singapore’s Straits Times Index retreated 0.3 percent.

US Futures
Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures gained 0.1 percent today. The U.S. equities benchmark slipped 0.1 percent yesterday, from a record, as consumer and technology shares slumped.

U.S. employers probably added 200,000 people to nonfarm payrolls last month, according to the median of 90 economist estimates compiled by Bloomberg, the most since a 274,000 increase in November and up from the 175,000 workers added in February. Data yesterday showed an uptick in jobless claims, with the number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the U.S. rising to a five-week high of 326,000, exceeding the median forecast for 319,000.

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

To be honest I am probably going to sit it out today; its NFP and a Friday so could be a tad unpredictable, however, I think as long as 6640 holds if tested then we should still get the rise to 6700/6715 area. Worst case scenario of the bulls is a dip right to the bottom of the 10 day Bianca channel at 6625, which I expect will hold, unless NFP is a real shocker (which I don’t think it will be). The upper line on the Bianca for both 10 and 20 day channels is just above 6700 so I think we will still see a test of that area today.

94 Comments

  5. I was short day and support bit got out of both for a small profit. Not sure what the market is doing. No clear signals either way

  7. jumped in to quick this morn short 6663 waiting to break even there or better still make a few pounds

  9. Im looking for long around 6770 area before nfp..target this time set in stone to 6700…

  12. ok,
    IF NFP comes out worse but unemployment is better…
    we gonna see a sudden drop and then a rally up!

  15. Yes tight stop, not looking so clever at the moment really was hoping for a drop back earlier. Think in future it is one best watched from the side lines. Not long now

  17. lol, ftse sleeping as always.
    What is the average leverage people use in FTSE ?
    1/5 contracts of FTSE
    or
    3/7 mini-contracts FTSE

  18. Closed at 86 with sp500 touching 1900 bet it tanks this afternoon now
    Lesson learnt there

    1. My advice is do not bet on the first friday of the month, or bet after 1:30pm.
      Personally I see it dropping from here as most indices are toppy atm.
      All my own speculation though GL

    2. man uve reached soo close to it from what 6657? whats the point of risking soo many points for like 5-10 points?
      Its one of those period where u gotta take ur profit considering how choppy the market is and that a big news didnt move it much!

      1. My target was placed several days ago. I’m with contract future. Why should I exit now, before target hit ? Does not make any sense at all.

        1. I enter at 6607 Tuesday. This is why trading futures in FTSE is better. For a target to get hit, takes days and days, for an humble target

  22. Still on sidelines hoping for a pull back to go long – we havent had any meaningful sell off so still hoping. Otherwise scratch day

  23. Dow and sp500 at all time highs with sp touching 1900 I can only see a bounce of this. Well that’s me done for the day

  26. Looks like a breakout Up on my system trading
    I use triple indicator system and it fired to go long

    1. Nice one. All the indices are playing their own game today.

      I also got a nice short done on DJ.

      Happy days, though I’d expect a lot bigger drop to come soon.
      All speculation ofc lol.

  30. Anyone else sitting on a long from 6540 level? I am and happy, first time in a few months! trailing stop. This trade will hopefully bring me back to B/E for the year again.

  32. do not know about that signal. This was my view for this days since Monday.
    This weekend I will take a look again for that price action in FTSE for next week.
    Monday also close +40 points from a position prior week.
    Well my view from 6533 where I made 1st position in the bottom and exit 24 points above…I just nailed the all 158 points from the bottom, closing at 6691, even without the same position.
    My initial strategy was to buy and hold at 6533 for a couple of weeks until the 6700 area.

  34. maybe, but this upswing has been a lot tougher than the others in the past.
    Maybe because now we are in a more tight range. It causes more volatility.
    We are closing for a breakout of this rangebound from last year.
    Up or down. But I suspect that breakout will be in the upside and the 7000’s target

        1. just to back my words ive shorted a tiny winy amount of gold..
          kinda need to get used to trading anything else than ftse

          1. I have my opinion about gold for quite sometime. This strength in gold in past months was because of a lot of indecision in the markets. But if we see a strength signal in equities, gold could break 1180.
            But I know some people who bought this last weeks weakness at 1290’s.
            I also had an order placed at 1275 and deleted. Not trusting at all in this short term upside.

          1. cant say with confidence,have not traded much other things other than ftse using my indicator 🙂

  38. Hah – here comes a possible dip, after the close. Stayed out all day. If it tanks for no reason now ill probably buy some and hold over the weekend

  39. It’s not tanking for no reason. Market is massively overpriced. It’s bound to correct a bit. Every index everywhere is at new highs.

    1. I don’t try to assess value as I take the view that the price just reflects what the market is willing to pay at a given point in time. At the moment the market is broadly risk on and would expect most of the gap being created to close by Monday morning – like it did yesterday with the drop into the close. In no hurry to buy but as the Dow is still falling, but likely to take a position if it can get to 6656 or lower which is looking very possible now. Ill just check there is no world news that is pulling this down that has come through since 4:30pm

  40. See the thing is..
    today roughly around 6660…my indicator showing that 70% chance of bearishness.
    AND NOW
    roughly 6670 is showing 51% bulls EMERGING!
    Meaning we will be seeing more upside and that bulls are emerging…
    and people like us who havent been long yet on ftse will get a very good entry to long!
    I am still worried about around 6725ish level on ftse…but if i manage to get in around 6650 then i wont really be worried if we reach such a level as i will be able to risk some points in anticipation of breaking that level 🙂
    GL all..
    AND BTW I CLOSED MY GOLD POSITION…made a newbie error, i use some indicators 1 being stoch, which is not showing a good indication for executing a short trade…
    appologies for my stupidity!

  44. Dav have you seen price action on nasdaq and sp509? You think this is risk on? It’s not all Value assessment but you have to consider all these factors. This is why I like that Nick gives a fundamental overview and news before concluding with charts and entry exit points

    1. Watching Dow at the moment – my point was we touched 6500 about 2 weeks so are 2-3% higher and trending up so on that time frame, yes i think we are at the moment.

  45. Anyone reckon its going much lower tonight – seems to be bounding of 6662, and Dow/Dax flattend off too

    1. Are you seeing any real support here
      as I see Support on S&P here
      thinking of buying at a real value point

      1. Hmm not so sure since last posted – this equally feels like a descending triangle(lower highs) that could easily break south so holding tight at the moment – its squeezing into a tighter triangle so will need to break up or down out of this soon….

      2. Greenrob, Don’t buy now.
        Apart from being on highs, it’s the weekend and would be a mistake to buy on a friday.
        Wait to monday and re think the situation.

        GL

        1. Where I am coming from is 9 time out of 10 these big after hours movements correct themselves by or soon after market opens Monday morning unless the market is strongly trending (in this case downwards, which it hasnt been in recent days). The FTSE has dropped nearly 30 points or 0.4% from close so yes always risk but only need to close half that gap to do OK. did it last Friday and it worked a treat – yes there is risk that something happens over the weekend but there always is and there is a possibility that the US will rally into the close so you can close out this evening anyway. I wont go in big but I am likely to take some position especially if it can break south of 6660. Appreciate holding over weekend is not to everyone’s likings

          1. Hash – what is your view at the moment – see you as a good judge of things like this so would welcome your views. Got to shoot off to my monthly investment club soon but hopefully the wifi will work in the pub in case I need to do something !

        2. Yes, only fallen cuz of profit taking. If weekend is smooth, expect to regain back to 6680 – 700 Monday morning

  46. OK
    But for me I have bought Ftse here. I feel a risk of 20 – 40 pips
    here is great value. Ofcourse the Real risk is the weekend.
    But for me its worth a punt.

  52. Reuters suggesting US has some capital gains being taken, same as UK – which might explain the sell off. Is this true?

  56. Well, it’s a good thing I closed all my longs. I did mention that I was not comfortable with all Indices being at all time highs.

    Can still see some more downside next week, FTSE may hold whilst the others fall.
    Surprised at the DAX today.

    Will evaluate re-entry on longs perhaps next weeks Tuesday/Wednesday.

    Gl guys!

  58. DavR0S reply to whats my view..
    well i think FTSE dropped only because of profit taking (as white mentioned).
    I personally think buying tiny amounts around 6650 is a good, my order kicked in out of market hours at 6650 (minimum risk)…
    But at same time i believe there will still be choppiness, BUT! Not as much choppiness as we saw before :).
    FTSE – in my view is slowly turning bullish.
    US/DOW – I WAS bullish, right now i cannot say the same, need to observe a bit more movement, as it did drop a significant amount on friday.

  59. Thanks – I did go long in the end around 6655 level around 8-30pm as it bottomed out and started to come back a bit. Not a huge position but quite happy to hold this into the new week. Will see in the morning whether worth it but sleeping fairly easily over this one.

    1. yup same here, i wouldnt be scared (actually be happy) if we go back down to 6650, so i could add more

      1. but i have to say the suspicious levels are 6650 and 6670..this is a range which i have in my view.

  60. Dow double top, more downside Monday expecting. Ugly candle. Wanna reenter DOW at lower levels, as I suspect another try at the next days

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