6657 pivot support today. Will we see 6695?

Good morning. Yesterday didn’t quite hit the long order level at 6637 – missed by one but we did still get the dip and rise, with the predictable stall round the 6670 area, just managing an overnight high at the other resistance level 6682, and have dropped back a little. Not particularly bearish, so might get another push high. I still think its not going to drop too much this week to lure in the ISA retail investors (#cynical). US ADP news came in at 191k versus 195k expected, so not too bad and probably means NFP on friday can be along the same lines – just a small undershoot. Bold statement there so will find out tomorrow how far wide of the mark that is!

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rose for a seventh day in the longest rally this year, as the Japanese yen reached a two-month low and China’s government announced stimulus policies. Copper and oil fell.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.3 percent by 11:43 a.m. in Hong Kong, as Japan’s Topix index gained 0.8 percent. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) futures were little changed after the gauge climbed a fourth day, extending its record. The yen weakened 0.2 percent to 104.07 per dollar, while copper dropped 0.8 percent and oil slid 0.2 percent.

China’s government will sell 150 billion yuan($24 billion) of bonds this year to fund railways for less-developed regions and extend preferential taxes to more small companies, the State Council said in a statement yesterday. Weekly U.S. jobless claims are due as investors weigh private data showing an increase in employment last month. The European Central Bank will probably keep interest rates at a record low today.

“We are starting to see more positive talk from officials in terms of the potential for stimulus” in China, said Angus Gluskie, managing director at White Funds Management in Sydney, who helps oversee about $550 million. “You have European and U.S. economies that continue to recover after particularly poor conditions a few years ago. Overall, employment and general economic activity continue to move up.”

U.S. employers probably added 200,000 workers to nonfarm payrolls in March, the biggest increase since November, according to the median of 88 economists’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg before tomorrow’s Labor Department report. ADP Research Institute said yesterday that payrolls rose by 191,000 workers last month, up from a 178,000 gain in February which was stronger than first projected.

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

Same again today then? Dip to the pivot at 6657 then rise? With the overnight test of the 82 level which was resistance based on yesterdays analysis, a test again of that and break would reach 6695 (top of the Bianca 20 day) and possibly 6715. Should the pivot break though then 6648 would be the next immediate support area then 6618.

With NFP out tomorrow I think we will have a fairly sluggish day today (famous last words) with a slow drift up towards the 6700 area, probably after the initial dip. Yesterdays close was 6659 as well so we may see a little gap close to that level (and the pivot area). Bear in mind I try to be as exact as possible with the entry figures below for the trades and sometimes they are pretty accurate (scarily so sometimes) but just use a bit of poetic license when it nears the area mentioned and enter around that area – also allow for the spread on your platform (and slight variation in prices).

93 Comments

  2. Morning Nick
    Thanks for the chart, could I ask about when and where the seminar is and cost.
    For those note able to reach would you consider videoing it and posting it at a cost?
    Many thanks
    Marco
    P.S Long from 60

    1. Hi Marco
      I left that in the post by mistake, but I have a space on the 22nd May, it will be at the Solent Hotel near Southampton. Is that of interest?, if so, please email me.

      Thanks
      Nick

      1. Hi Nick
        I am interested as only over the water. Can I confirm on Monday as taking family away on holiday very close to that so just need to iron that out over the weekend.
        Many thanks
        Marco

  4. Missed/passed on the pivot dip as it wasnt far from the open and the Dax was trending down. Still better to be out than in a losing position. Looking like it might be returning there soon though…

  5. yea wondering same who bought pivot…I WAS SOO CLOSE but cancelled the ordertoo early in the day to be placing order at the pivot after such a quick fall…
    still got several hours before US reports and Open

        1. Yes- was looking a bit dicey at one point ! Not out of the woods yet but that spike up just helped – no idea what caused that though

  9. If we drop more, then I will have to move my target from 6692 a little more in the upside, as any new bounce and break of 6680, will inflate more next target.

  11. Average 6624.
    Holding for the long term, or at least until end of earnings season.
    Not being Nitup V, but im expecting the ftse to test 6930 within the next 2 months. a month back it all seemed possible.

  13. Something broke this morning waiting for 37 to go long, closed my long from 60 this morning when 70 broke at 66.

  14. Are people holding into the ECB decision? I am inclined to as expectations (i understand) are low and Draghi has form to surprise market – so my instinct is that market wont move a lot if nothing changes but potential to rally if a rabbit pulled out of the hat – but I have also learnt in the past not to correlate news as to which way it is going to move

    1. DAv with jobless up surely 2.30 is not looking good. But then yanks make their own rules up..!
      I dont trade afternoons anymore so out till tomorrow morning

          1. Closed 60% now – rest will depend on whether 6674 can break which is where it got stuck yesterday

  16. im out…no point holding risk in this choppy market,
    gold i had a sell signal yesterday at 1893 lol but didnt sell…
    ive slowly started setting up python scripts on linux box to monitor other markets for me such that i can begin trading multiple markets instead of wasting time waiting for ftse to come in line

  18. No trades for me today, the push up seems even weaker than yesterday, we are at the top of Dow: so it’s too late to buy and early to short. I think the eyes are on tomorrow. I expect a good dip, possible fast and furious and then active break of the top (oh gosh, I think they are breaking now!!!) Madness. I expected sideways today.

    1. Did you buy? Was tempted but with 40 minutes to go could easily dip further to the close – would be tempted then

      1. DAV, stupid I know but my new rules don’t allow me to trade after 1 so no I didn’t buy. SHAME

        1. I am hoping for it to go to the lower support at 6618 – if it does that I am definitely buying even if its 4.29!

          2. I will add. But it seems is trying to bounce. I will add after close if it drops deeper

  24. DavR0s

    Hi,

    Are you free for a little natter ref. ISF & related instruments!

    Regards
    Kevin

    1. Sorry only just picked up – by all means but prefer to do it via this board so fire away when you are ready and Ill try and do my best

  25. Hi Senu cut 75% at 9620 was too much profit there for me just too give it back to the market… Plus NFP tomorrow.

    1. On sidelines. Was waiting for an open drop to the 6640 area but we only got a very mild drop to yesterday’s pivot of a few points. Stuck at 6674 level again for 3rd day so if it breaks I may get bullish but would prefer a drop back before entering still

    1. Hi, not – that is the short ETF on the FTSE but it tracks terrible so always go the SB route when going short

        1. Sorry – SB = spreadbet which is what I imagine most use who trade the FTSE. You can go long and short with this

          1. OK I thought you also traded the ISF in your ISA A/c ?
            This is what I want to do – as up to now only traded ftse-100/250 shares.
            So was quizzing you on the whats & ifs about trading the FTSE 100 index within the ISA.

          2. I use spread bet and ISF when long; and spreadbet when short ie use both. As I said before you trade it just like a share – but it has very small spread and no stamp duty

          3. OK – SB for Shorting / Long
            ISF – for long exclusively.
            ISF – is currently 664.5 so £ 1000 will get you 150 Shares . A move to 666.5 – will give you a gross profit of £ 3 – am I correct. Then the Charges have to be added to this – but no stamp duty.

          4. Yes your calcs like right. As I said you can do a dummy buy and get the 15second ticker to test out what price you will get. You need to do the maths as to the cost benefit of going the ETF route – your £1000 may have been an example but you will find you’ll need to buy 10s of £k for this to make a sensible route each time – any smaller and you might as well go the spreadbet route. Even £2/point (minimum on IG) is effectively taking exposure of £13k so at these levels I would always stay with SB given the trading costs involved

  30. 6700+ looking much more likely just now. The rate of attack is rather shallow though. Disappointing NFP data at 1:30 pm and/or a Wall St. sell-off later today could change the picture. 🙁

  31. My outlook has changed now that we have held up here till now. I see us dropping back shortly to support at 6656 then a push up this afternoon to 6700.

    1. No as my rule is only go in the direction of the dominant trend which i take form the 1Day MACD which is firmly up at present – my thinking is that if something pulls back it is more likely to endup heading back up and not run away from itself in the opposite direction. But I am really after the big rallies – so using support levels to form an entry and looking for a break north – keep getting my entries this week but each time it wont decisively break through support levels. Once it is rallying strongly I aim to hold for several days.

      I can see the logic of shorting at the 6674 area if you are intraday as it has held a number of times this week – cant hold for ever so I am with you that I feel this could finally push though and stay there. Hoping the run into NFP or just after will give that entry point

  33. Shooting stars yesterday on Dax and FTSE tell me we might need a little pull back to get momentum to push up through resistance in this area.
    Can see the logic in your post.

    1. I hope so – still consider myself very much a novice but am slowly improving the returns. I have come towards this route as used to hold a lot of equities (still do but not as many now) but was tired of them being pulled down when general sentiment turns down (and its expensive to get in and out each time), plus you get all manner of wild movements as bear raids occur, management drop clangers – hence developing the approach to ride the up and down trends in the general market – so the need for a very low cost entry and exit route. Have found the entry and exit the hardest parts – i tried Nituk’s approach but didnt work for me so I tend to go all in or maybe 50% on when it hits a support level and finding this works much better…. in the meantime the FTSE going nowhere fast!

      1. In the start yes all in or 50% is easier… building position slowly itself is a skill! U need much much stronger discipline and extreme money management.
        However in the current conditions it is near impossible to build positions n come out with a profit due to the choppy nature.
        Even now after several years trading i find it hard to build positions unless we in a smooth trend lol

  35. Would be putting a short on the Dax at about 9675 but with it being NFP today am going to stay on the sideline, never know which way america will go so just best to play it safe.

  36. Dab me too but come to realise the smart ones get out on the pump and the novices stay in and watch it drift down. Even in indexes if you would have held over last year you would have gone nowhere whilst we trend sideways. Prefer to day trade and take my 20-25 points each day rather than sit there and watch it disappear.

  40. Marco plenty of other day to trade so on the risky one best to sit there and watch…. In saying that think the NFP job forecast is going to miss today reckon 165000 American market stretched and in major overbrought so think we may get a sell off but this is just guess work. Also problem with April is there money floating round end tax year/beginning so hard month to trade.

    1. Very true Luke I am trying to keep my trades to max 2 per day and find once DOW kicks in it tends to go very eratic so trying morning only trading at the moment.

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