6637 support today, 6682, 6695 resistance

Good morning. Great when a trade goes exactly according to play isn’t it, and the long from 6612 yesterday worked ideal, all closing at 6657. The news flow has generally turned upbeat again so we should get some rises, probably up to the NFP news on Friday. As mentioned earlier this week, the FTSE will be underpinned to attract S&S ISA money in, so unlikely to drop loads this week, before 5th April. We may well see a repeat of yesterday with the pivot at 6637 holding as support with a push towards 6700. The longer term Bianca channels (we dropped off the 10 day at 6557 yesterday) are now showing 6671 and 6682 as channel tops (20 and 10 day respectively).

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index extending its winning streak to a sixth day, after an increase in U.S. manufacturing boosted optimism about growth in the world’s biggest economy.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.5 percent to 139 as of 12:10 p.m. in Tokyo as more than five shares rose for every three that fell. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index advanced to a record yesterday after the Institute for Supply Management’s index rose to 53.7 in March from 53.2 in February, showing manufacturing was expanding as a winter-depressed first quarter ended.

“Economic data was constructive for market bulls as it painted a picture of a gradually improving U.S. manufacturing sector,” Matthew Sherwood, head of investment markets research in Sydney at Perpetual Investments, wrote in a note. “There were solid rises in forward orders and production, which suggests that the weather slowdown could be clearing in March.”

Japan’s Topix (TPX) index added 1.2 percent after the yen yesterday fell for a fourth day against the dollar. Japanese companies have signaled confidence in Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s efforts to stamp out deflation. Consumer prices will rise 1.5 percent over the next 12 months, and 1.7 percent in three years and in five years, according to companies surveyed for the Bank of Japan’s Tankan.

Regional Gauges
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index advanced 0.2 percent, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of mainland shares traded in the city lost 0.5 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index rose 0.2 percent.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index increased 0.1 percent, while New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index lost 0.1 percent. Taiwan’s Taiex index rose 0.3 percent and Singapore’s Straits Times Index added 0.1 percent.

Futures on the S&P 500 index rose 0.1 percent today. The measure gained 0.7 percent yesterday. A private report today is projected to show U.S. employers added more workers last month before non-farm payrolls data due April 4.

U.S. reports from employment to factory output had shown weakness this year as freezing temperatures and snow kept shoppers indoors, grounded flights and made it harder for shippers to fill product orders.

Yellen’s Comments
The signs of economic improvement come as Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on March 31 signaled the central bank’s unprecedented monetary stimulus would be needed for “some time” because of “considerable slack” in the labor market. She cited large numbers of partly unemployed workers, stagnant wages, lower labor-force participation and longer periods of joblessness.

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

I expect that this bull run will continue for the moment, certainly we have a pretty decent 30 minute channel in play and the 10 day channels are pretty firmly up. The level likely to cause a bit of a stutter today is the 6671 area, being the 20 day Bianca channel top. There is also the daily coral there, so a couple of hurdles the bulls will need to hum,o to push to 6700/6715, which is looking were this run might end. If the pivot were to break then a drop to 6620 is possible but likely to act as support. We have the bottom of the 30 minute channel there as well.

106 Comments

    1. Yep I am fully long from the dip to 6640 this morning – and still running it. Will see how it gets on with the 6671 area referred to by Nick before deciding whether to close or continue running it. I find on a medium term swing there is often a “run away” day or two and we haven’t had one on this up trend yet so that is what I am really after so trying not to grab profits too quickly if I can avoid it

      1. Must say Nick you are having a very good week with your predictions. btw is the full commentary you post here available to members ahead of the open?

        1. Thanks, yes been alright this week. Long may it last eh!

          Yes i send the above out (and more detail, plus my trade plan) to members at around 07:20 before the market opens.

  2. DavROs, would you therefore recommend a trailing stop after 6675, and if so, at what level?

    1. I think if your focus is intra day its not a bad idea – but I am trying to go multi day and I try and look for price action to guide me at each support/resistance level as to whether to keep going or not and then use manual stops. So for example we built an ascending triangle at 6671 as Nick rightly said was likely to cause some congestion and now broken through – am looking to see if it back tests that area now or runs ahead. If it breaks back down might be tempted to close off and enter lower but it does feel like it has legs today so here’s hoping!

      1. Just closed my longs at 6668 as looks like it may not be ready to hold above 6670 quite yet – watch it go back up now! Ill be looking to reenter lower if it goes that way

  3. Went short from 60 this morning looked back at 9.15 to see I had be closed at break even. Was not expecting it to reach pivot so soon.
    Gone long now a bit late at 54 so looking for a big rise now we hit pivot so early. Will hold this till 1.30/2.30 as expecting a drop back from Dow open

  4. Havies what are you thoughts, I know you are long, as am i. Interested to here your targets. Also great analysis Nick

    1. Si 74 is a resistance level so was going to bounce off this but as it has reached here so early I see us going through here up to 6700 by 2.30

      1. I sold as it came back and tested it once and on the second test fell through this level. I agree with Marco my expectation is that it will go back over it soon

      1. Oh, I didn’t see you were replied earlier. Don’t worry, we all did those mistakes.

  7. I have been holding a 6600 Long for a couple of weeks now. Was hoping to get 6750/6800 eventually. Does any1 think this could happen over the next few days/weeks?

    1. Agree looking for a drop off this afternoon, so if ADP is nothing special then we could see that

      1. Is it 1.15 as the widget on this site says 12.15 for the jobs data ? Still on the sidelines as no meaningful pullback yet, nor has 6671 decisively broken…

          1. OK thanks re jobs number time. So are you saying you think this rally will top at 6726 or have i misunderstood?

  11. todays close will indicate if my strategy is firing off a reversal or not…soo bloody hard when these markets are as choppy as they are now

      1. perfect scenario would be if we see 6655 before ADP and ADP comes out good to push it up

        1. Looks you are going to get your 6655 – where have you got that from? Am looking to reenter but dont have a clear entry position yet – still thinking about it

          1. i got that 6650-6655ish from up and down channel crossing around there showing support/resistance…
            if market is to continue then it should be taken as support..if it breaks then it becomes resistance…

  12. Some pull back now – anyone heard any news as its lost all strength all of a sudden or is this just the market playing around

          1. I am back in after that 6650 bounce – still amazed how quickly the market can gyrate like it does!

          2. yea DavR0s, thats why ive been pissed off these days, if u look at the daily charts its crazy choppy but uptrend..soo annoying trading this intraday!
            last month was one of the worst months ive had trading in terms of controlling emotion..
            uve probably noticed me here saying “now im bearish…and now im bullish” like through out the whole day lol

    1. Well, I hope not, to be honest I don’t see that, no, maybe 16470 at the most. Honestly I hope 16500 will hold.

    2. in my view if ftse drops to 6612 then thats it..bears coming out!
      I can only see ftse pulling back slightly around 6726 now….and im also leaning right now towards ftse even breaking 6880 (cant say that with confidence until we break resitance level before)

    1. great great great :)…lets keep ftse floating and sliding up until US open and factory orders 🙂

        1. no set in stone target, if 30 mins candle dont close above 6675 then ill close half and the other half ill close B/E

  15. I am expecting a fall today but then again I’ve been expecting one for days now !!!. Remain short for the short term but long after next big pullback

  16. hte only thing which id say is fuked up is that VIX is increasing with equities..and this is one of the first signs of a drop :S
    wen markets are bulls and VIX is bulls = drop coming…
    VIX should be dropping whilst equities are going up for a true bull trend.

        1. But ftse is a market that is not affected 100% by US. \With an uptrend that started last days, the worst can happen is a stall…and one more upside after in US can do the rest

    2. vix is a sign of increased volatility. Many people hedging can make VIX go up. Also VIX today is also tradable, which could give false readings. Don’t you think ?

      1. appologies – i was looking at wrong market ….VIX dropped like a mofo yesterday so its good.
        and Muan …like u said ppl use it for hedgeing so if they LONG VIX meaning they hedging a short position (in say S&P), and people who are able to move VIX/S&P are the big players :).
        Also mathematicaly its shown that increase in VOL (VIX) usually indicates that equities should be falling (and if they increasing means something REALLY wrong)..
        but i made a mistake..VIX yesterday dropped like a bitch lol

        1. If I go long in VIX, I would hedge in SPX going long, not shorting. Vix is a fear index. So a increase in fear goes for a drop in markets.

          1. excuse me yes u r right, but like u said, VIX is a fear index..if VIX increases then people are scared that markets will fall

          3. yes i know, i said u were right, i made a mistake there lol..
            Long SPX and Long VIX to hedge.

    1. NP,
      hmm i mentioned above init
      If 30 min dont close above 6675 then ill take out half as close to 6675 and other half will leave till B/E…
      But if somehow we manage to see 6720ish this week then thats my final target

  18. atleast its a good sign we hovering around what “I” call support,
    lets see what US open brings

      1. Still holding – but hate this time of the day as gyrates all over the place as US market opens

          1. Lookjng that way – will be more relaxed when it gets to 6670 – been good week so far and long may it continue!

      2. im still holding half long…
        i just had too much risk on in 1 go, cant risk too much after waiting for what like 2 hours of doodling around within a 5 points range.

  22. Still holding Hash? Still got mine and waiting to see if 6671 can go – had good outcome earlier so happy to risk some gains on this cycle as it cant keep holding.

      1. 6671 proving tough to crack but its having a real go – my worry is if it doesn’t do in soon we may get end of day sell off that often seems to happen in the last half hour.

  23. interesting chat going on at Bloomberg tv live on flash trading and how the whole market is rigged

    1. Closed half and have finger over the close button for the rest on any sign of weakness

    1. Not me – but if it drops to 6650 will be tempted to go back in – US market drifting down so in no hurry to reenter just yet

  29. White – Apologies, had a really busy day.
    I closed all my longs apart from one. I am not all that comfortable with Dow, Dax, S&P at all time Highs and the FTSE not, cannot see the FTSE continuing an uptrend if the other Indicies decide to correct. My main focus this year is looking at the Dow and it’s very close to what I think will be end year result, so not comfortable at all.

    If the other Indicies manage to break those highs I will re-evaluate my position and look for entry points, but it will be to Short the market.

    Have closed a fair few points, so happy with the trades I made 🙂

    In the meantime I will consider a couple of day trades perhaps 🙂

    Gl

    1. With all trades closed I gained a Total of 608 points.
      The interest on them hurts though, but a decent month 🙂

        1. lol, is almost there. I was thinking in a move to 17000.
          US markets started 2 days ago a new leg up.
          In that case we are in a bull trap, if this move in US is fake.

          1. Lol, don’t know…
            I am not saying it will not go higher than my target. Only saying growth is not something I see happening on the Dow for end of year results 😉

  30. maybe, I heard that earnings 1QT will go flat, but probably 2nd half year things start to appear better

  31. I’m with havies personally think the market has gone too high too soon, especially with 8 months to go! Expecting a decent correction on the DOW and S&P. still looking for an all time high on the ftse this year just expecting the DOW to drop much faster than the ftse to balance it out price is too inflated IMO.,,

    1. thats the same story last year. Nothing new. FTSE lagging as always.
      Someone here told that FTSE will be best performer this year and not US.

      So I’m the only one still holding FTSE to 6691 ?

  32. sorry for late reply, my last half i took out at 6665..
    gonna sit back and watch how it plays out

  33. … Just read a Reuters comment that ” us stocks are a much under owned asset class” absolutely pissing myself with laughter where do they get these clowns from :-), who the deck pays these guys for comments like this ha feckin ha

  34. … Sorry just composed myself I’ve just realised thanks to Reuters that all we’ve been experiencing is an old classic “winter related pullback” … On my way to the sanatorium as we speak 🙂

  36. Still holding my long till the end of the month. Target around 6850. As I said a few weeks ago can’t see 7000 now…..but you never know. The market is expected to be pretty flat during the May…..doesn’t mean it won’t be volatile but shouldn’t be too much difference in level between the price on 30th April and 31st August.

    Btw….It was me who said that the FTSE would outperform the Dow this year back in December. First couple of months that seemed to be playing out but then the Ukraine situation hit the Miners which make a large proportion of the FTSE. Let’s see how it goes from here….but may have to revise that opinion.

  38. Missed/passed on the pivot dip as it wasnt far from the open and the Dax was trending down. Still better to be out than in a losing position. Looking like it might be returning there soon though…

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