Will 6625 break today? Support 6576ish

Good morning. An interesting day yesterday with a nice catch of the early rise, closing at 6555 expecting a bit of a dip (bull tuesday pattern being a dip int he morning then a rise in the afternoon) and boom, it just keeps going, thus showing once again how unpredictable markets can be! Anyway, tried the short at 6585 which didn’t work, and in fact even after the close we had a quick rise to 6625 before falling back to 6600. Today, if 6604 holds as support could see another test of that high, and if broken then 6650. Support wise the pivot at 6576 looks good for a long. US consumer confidence rose to a 6 year high yesterday which helped the US markets recover their initial drop. After most news being bad, looks like we will get a couple of weeks of good news flow and yesterday marked the switch. Tends to be in 10 day runs of good then bad then good again etc… The main things that might prevent a big push up on the FTSE is the 20 day Raff which we are currently sitting at the top of, and the 25ema both on the daily chart.

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rose after U.S. consumer confidence climbed to a six-year high, buoying investor optimism about the outlook for the world’s biggest economy.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 1 percent to 135.57 as of 3:16 p.m. in Tokyo, with about two stocks rising for each that fell. All but one of the 10 industry groups on the measure advanced.

“Early signs are that U.S. growth is back on track with consumer confidence holding up and the market growing more confident that some of the data through the winter was weather-related,”Sean Fenton, who helps oversee about $1 billion as Sydney-based fund manager at Tribeca Investment Partners Ltd., said by phone. “We have seen a stabilization in China recently and there is a good chance we are through the worst.”
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 1 percent, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of mainland shares traded in the city rose 1.6 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index slid 0.4 percent. Taiwan’s Taiex index rose 0.6 percent, while Singapore’s Straits Times Index climbed 1.4 percent.

Japan’s Topix index increased 0.7 percent and South Korea’s Kospi index advanced 1.2 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index climbed 0.8 percent, while New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index fell 0.1 percent.

U.S. Futures
Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.1 percent today. The measure gained 0.4 percent yesterday, snapping a two-day loss. The Conference Board’s index of U.S. consumer confidence rose to 82.3 in March, the highest since January 2008, from 78.3 a month earlier, the New York-based private research group said yesterday. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 76 economists called for a reading of 78.5 this month.

Another report showed purchases of new homes in the U.S. fell in February to the lowest level in five months, a sign the industry may take time to pick up after inclement weather damped demand earlier in the year. Residential real-estate prices climbed at a slower pace in the year through January than a month earlier, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities.

U.S. President Barack Obama urged Russia to de-escalate the crisis over Ukraine or face the consequences of more sanctions if it encroaches further into the east of the country after its annexation of Crimea.

Russia’s Choice
President Vladimir Putin “has to understand that there’s a choice to be made here,” Obama told reporters after a 53-nation nuclear-security summit in The Hague yesterday, saying there’s “another path open” to the Russian leader. “It is now up to Russia to act responsibly and show itself once again willing to abide by international rules and international norms.”

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

I’m thinking dip and rise today, quite possibly down to the support area at 6580 (daily pivot is 6576 as well so 2 supports here), then further rises. The FTSE hasn’t broken the 6630 area overnight and did drop back quite fast from the test of that area yesterday evening. However, a further test today could see it break and a spurt up to 6648. Bear in mind the 20 day Raff and 25ema on daily though, which make me thinks it might be hard pressed to push on that much higher, and the S&P has resistance at 1872 which could line up with those levels. If the FTSE were to make a break for it then there is a PRoTrend resistance line on daily at 6675 and the 10 day Raff at 6690.

The reason I have gone for the initial dip is that as you can see on the 30minute chart, there are a cluster of resistance lines around the 6620 to 6630 area.

129 Comments

  1. Thanks Nick. I’m holding long from 6538. Stop adjusted to b/e now. Hoping for a run to 6700 – 800 +

  2. Same,as white.
    Long from 6600 but should have bought more when nick said yesterday.
    Adding to long, looking at a run to 6850 like late february.

  3. Hi,

    I’m looking for your thoughts please.
    I opened some shorts at the 6598 area yesterday and misstakenly / subornly didn’t close them.

    Shall i close now and take the loss as i can;t cope with 6700

    1. If a trade doesn’t go for me, personally i cut and run and look for the next opportunity rather than holding on hoping it comes back. The main thing is to make sure your entries are at recognised levels rather than just randomly entering, that way you can have tights stops. For example say resistance is 6630, so short at 6629 but stop 6636 say, if 6630 breaks then chances are it will head up to the next resistance, 6648 in this case.

      1. Thanks Nick.
        yes bad trade decision.

        what do i need to do to rejoin the official trading room?

        thanks Nick

  4. “European shares rose in early deals on Wednesday, benefitting from increased optimism over the global economy”…. this is a headline from a market analyst for today….I am bit gobsmacked to be honest by that!..lol…yesterday they market went up on hopes of more stimulus in Europe and China. So, it only took 24 hours to change views from the economy is in bad shape and we need more stimulus to economise are good…WOW….anyone with a bright explanation??..lol

    1. Such a load of bull**** isn’t it! They fit the headlines to the price action most of the time. When it tanks later, the headlines will be changed again!

  5. I don’t thing the raise has got any legs. The situation is no different then it was last week however the volumes yesterday were 30% lower then average!!..that is not good..

  6. I’m thinking – just to let the end of the month / quarter complete and then see where we sit.
    This area seems difficult to me !
    Will look again when the markets are at 6675 – 6700 or some tradeable patterns are clearer

  7. now on sidelines (the above trade was not in view of my trading strategy but mainly because ftse is showing great strength…it really doesnt seem to want to drop AT ALL, not even a slight pullback lol)

    1. If ftse gives a close below 6500 by end of the week,i think we are on for a big move downside, this may happen as i think on friday we may see a big sell off being the last day of the week,month and the 1st quarter …your indicators are very good hash,keep it up.

        1. i am on the sidelines,yesterday had bit of loss..stil dont see ftse going higher than 6672..will wait till friday to see the price action and will take position on monday morning.

          1. You were so confident in a FTSE crash, that any upside now, will be unreal for you and you need to take a few days off to accept you were wrong and price is doing what is right

          2. don’t worry, I’m with you, I also missed this upside, but lucky with no losses, because for me, FTSE was in a bottom

  8. Nick K if your thinking of sellling now I would hold off this is going to fall back over next 1.5 hrs before further rise this after noon

  9. lol. Impossible to catch this FTSE. It moves quick and then stops. You need to know waiting in this market and exit when it stops. I really done that in the run from 6530 to 6560. It stopped there. Bit it was a small move. I did not catch the big run from 6530 to 6630. It was faster than speed of light and then here we are stopped at this levels 6630. Now where is the next run ? I need to be inside

  10. Hoping this levels stay here until 1:45, when we have another PMI. bad data coming from there, and a buy opportunity at lower levels.

  11. Guys just as an update..im still on sidelines HOWEVER still leaning towards bearish tone, in a pickle …..go with the hype of ftse ralling or stick to my strategy – ohhh the mental fight begins lool

      1. good luck I ended my FTSE long this morning for 30 points is so hard to judge today. I would say it should be higher now but DOW and DAX look to high so drop back should push FTSE down a little more but who knows yesterday the Dow dropped 100 points without really moving the FTSE.

      2. Hashmash, be careful with the bearish view on FTSE…lol…because if you don’t Nitup will come back and then god have mercy on all of us…lol

          1. and you really think he would understand the difference?!lol….he would dig it out something you said 6 weeks ago and stab you with it. Then you would spend another 30min thinking, what the f…. is he on about……lol

  12. Hashmash — Re side-lines and a bearish tone — Difficult to get away from the fact, at least as I see it, that the US markets are high enough to question the plausibility of a new rally on either side of the pond right now. Extremely nervous about FTSE’s proposed ‘upswing’!

    1. see the thing is…i can see more “space” for an upswing more than a down swing in the medium term…however my strategy is showing slight bears at the moment meaning I will lean towards either a stagnant/range bound OR BEARS (and i dont trade range bound much with this strategy, i did use to).

  13. I did not enter FTSE. Looking to DOW again. Wanna enter for a medium term position again. I think DOW is in start of another big move.

    1. ALso, again this year is not 2014. A lot of volatility to expect. Wanna look for another big drop in US to reenter

  14. if it closes below 6590 today then im back in being a full bear! piss take though loool all that hassle for nothing!

  15. Very hard to read at the moment. I went long when todays strength broke yesterday’s highs as all my signals were pointing up – and then all of a sudden we start giving it all back up. Still long but undecided what to do as am seeking to hold for 5-10 days. Guess will hold short term unless it really starts to drift back badly and my momentum indicators show it is likely to reverse. At the moment they are on the edge so I know if I close now it will motor on back up. I wonder what words they will invent tonight to fit today’s movement

  16. What type of account do you use for medium term trading?
    Overnight financing seems to invalidate it on a spread betting account

    1. Sometimes use next quarterly futures which is 4p spread on IG which handily doesn’t widen until late evening – looking for 200-300 points movements so the cost isnt too bad – sometimes happy to hold on DFB and set some overnight limits as often it moves around closes out for a profit and then ends up where it finished the previous night so I can reopen the position. Have found coming in and going out though is often too intensive and generally hard as the market will move many points when you least expect it (like the middle of the night) and the gains lost often outweigh the costs saved. The other strategy i use for longs is buying an FTSE ETF (ISF) in my ISA – no stamp duty, very low spread and the trading costs can be under 10 pounds though i never use the short version of this. The plan I am building is around the 3-4 week cycles and using momentum indicators to show when direction has changed. I sold out my main longs at 6810 and have just gone back in today at 6616. The really hard bit is the entry strategy and also the psychology that gets in your head when it moves against you – that’s what I am finding anyway.

    1. these candles sometimes are very tricky… 6600 hold… do not know. I wish I could buy in a better level

  17. Ok heres my trade plan…next 6640, which in hoping tmrw, (assuming everything is in line) i will be shorting!
    I believe we will see 6500 again

  18. Muan

    Not bought yet.
    My charts have a buy order at 6597.
    With a move to 6660 to 6670 tomorrow.
    So thinking of leaving order in system

    1. I think with that rejection in 6640 today, you could buy tomorrow in lower levels, maybe 50 points lower, than of the close.

  19. Any bets that Dow will broach or breach 16500, like it did at the beginning of the year? Perhaps not and there’s the problem! After today, I’m getting first indications that the FTSE is out of steam already. A reversal now ought to take us down to about 6450. The rest of the week should tell. 🙂

    1. Careful with DOW. the 50ma finally is rolling over since yesterday. Wish I was in. SO I need to focus in other cheaper markets

  20. but dont panic! alot of people looking to buy this becus of the “strength” it has shown in last days, should jump up hopefulyl tomorrow abit at open

    1. It has been always inline, in past months. Only DEC 12 it was 0,1 less that forecasted. I bet will surprise for the upside for 1st time, as we are in late stages of recover

  21. A bit scary – but got a good stoploss on my buy at 6597
    hopefully will see my systems target expectation of
    6660 to 6670.
    looking at the chart is real scary – so turning off computer
    and going for a drink.
    safe trading you’all

  22. Nitu’s 7100 looks a pipedream all of a sudden now. Hope he is closing those longs on the way down.

    1. lol i dont want ftse to fall too much right now 🙁 i want it tomorrowww with a nice high so i can short LOL

  23. 2014 will be a flat year, unless you can pick levels with surgery precision and exit as you have decent profit. Do not wait for the golden eggs.
    You always can trade for some points, but very tricky with CFDs and there bull**spreads.

    1. my lord this is going crazy seriously lol, my indicator back to being bearish “as in start looking for opportunities to short.
      markets are totally Fked, too choppy no direction even if there is, then its very bloody hard to detect!

        1. hashmash,
          weekly EMA looks very bearish to me..10 EMA(6629) crossing over 25 EMA(6619) is only a matter of time…last time this happened in 2012 and ftse gone 400pts down..do you think this time if it happens we will see 6200-6000? i like your strategy because Bear gives more than Bull 🙂

          1. lol. when I was a rookie, had the same feeling.
            What a bag of bull*. 10ema cross over 25ema ? It’s almost a daily basis thing, lol. In fact at this time is rolling over to the upside

  24. Hello guys the the price now is around 6569 is this a good time to invest for tomorrow or will it go down even more?

  25. Anyone here can post a snapshot of the market profile from FTSE futures ?
    wanna see that overnight volume structure being built right now and also from last session.
    Thanks

  26. looking at daily in more detaili fear a red channel taking on down to 6504 if this dosent happen before 12 o clock then chances greatly reduced

  27. Not executed yet.. waiting on 6590 lol…talking about being hit emotionally ..scared to go in early now from mistake i made in my last trade of executing at a bad area

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