Good morning. An interesting day yesterday with a nice catch of the early rise, closing at 6555 expecting a bit of a dip (bull tuesday pattern being a dip int he morning then a rise in the afternoon) and boom, it just keeps going, thus showing once again how unpredictable markets can be! Anyway, tried the short at 6585 which didn’t work, and in fact even after the close we had a quick rise to 6625 before falling back to 6600. Today, if 6604 holds as support could see another test of that high, and if broken then 6650. Support wise the pivot at 6576 looks good for a long. US consumer confidence rose to a 6 year high yesterday which helped the US markets recover their initial drop. After most news being bad, looks like we will get a couple of weeks of good news flow and yesterday marked the switch. Tends to be in 10 day runs of good then bad then good again etc… The main things that might prevent a big push up on the FTSE is the 20 day Raff which we are currently sitting at the top of, and the 25ema both on the daily chart.
Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rose after U.S. consumer confidence climbed to a six-year high, buoying investor optimism about the outlook for the world’s biggest economy.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 1 percent to 135.57 as of 3:16 p.m. in Tokyo, with about two stocks rising for each that fell. All but one of the 10 industry groups on the measure advanced.
“Early signs are that U.S. growth is back on track with consumer confidence holding up and the market growing more confident that some of the data through the winter was weather-related,”Sean Fenton, who helps oversee about $1 billion as Sydney-based fund manager at Tribeca Investment Partners Ltd., said by phone. “We have seen a stabilization in China recently and there is a good chance we are through the worst.”
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 1 percent, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of mainland shares traded in the city rose 1.6 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index slid 0.4 percent. Taiwan’s Taiex index rose 0.6 percent, while Singapore’s Straits Times Index climbed 1.4 percent.
Japan’s Topix index increased 0.7 percent and South Korea’s Kospi index advanced 1.2 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index climbed 0.8 percent, while New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index fell 0.1 percent.
Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.1 percent today. The measure gained 0.4 percent yesterday, snapping a two-day loss. The Conference Board’s index of U.S. consumer confidence rose to 82.3 in March, the highest since January 2008, from 78.3 a month earlier, the New York-based private research group said yesterday. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 76 economists called for a reading of 78.5 this month.
Another report showed purchases of new homes in the U.S. fell in February to the lowest level in five months, a sign the industry may take time to pick up after inclement weather damped demand earlier in the year. Residential real-estate prices climbed at a slower pace in the year through January than a month earlier, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities.
U.S. President Barack Obama urged Russia to de-escalate the crisis over Ukraine or face the consequences of more sanctions if it encroaches further into the east of the country after its annexation of Crimea.
President Vladimir Putin “has to understand that there’s a choice to be made here,” Obama told reporters after a 53-nation nuclear-security summit in The Hague yesterday, saying there’s “another path open” to the Russian leader. “It is now up to Russia to act responsibly and show itself once again willing to abide by international rules and international norms.”
I’m thinking dip and rise today, quite possibly down to the support area at 6580 (daily pivot is 6576 as well so 2 supports here), then further rises. The FTSE hasn’t broken the 6630 area overnight and did drop back quite fast from the test of that area yesterday evening. However, a further test today could see it break and a spurt up to 6648. Bear in mind the 20 day Raff and 25ema on daily though, which make me thinks it might be hard pressed to push on that much higher, and the S&P has resistance at 1872 which could line up with those levels. If the FTSE were to make a break for it then there is a PRoTrend resistance line on daily at 6675 and the 10 day Raff at 6690.
The reason I have gone for the initial dip is that as you can see on the 30minute chart, there are a cluster of resistance lines around the 6620 to 6630 area.