6531 support at daily pivot, 6570 resistance, then 6585

Good morning. To sum up yesterday, so close but yet so far. I had top resistance at 6573 and the high was 6571.9, I had bottom support at 6503 and the low was 6504.1. Therefore the order levels I quoted were a bit too exact but I gather from various emails that a few of you shorted at 70 and longed at 05 so all well done for that! The new chat room is bedding in OK – yes its a bit different but at least this one allows me to share my charts. Im still shopping around anyway and there is a new one that launches in a few weeks that looks promising with more functionality, so I may well switch again soon.

Current news flow is still pretty bearish – slowdown in US manufacturing and Russia worries still. As per usual give it a week or 2 and the sentiment would have changed and most news will be good. Despite the bearish overtones, indices are holding up fairly well though 6570 is the line in the sand that the bulls will need to break (and the 20 day Raff is 6585) so might be hard pressed to push on for the moment. 6615 would be possible if they were to break (6615 is the 25ema on daily).

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks swung between gains and losses, after the biggest rally in a month for the regional benchmark index yesterday, as data showed a slowdown in U.S. manufacturing and investors weighed the prospect of a recession in Russia.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed at 134.29 as of 12:14 p.m. in Tokyo after rising 1.2 percent yesterday, the steepest gain since Feb. 21. Six of the 10 industry groups on the gauge fell. Banks warned Russia’s economy is at risk of shrinking as the world’s leading industrial powers threaten further sanctions to deter it from invading other parts of Ukraine after the annexation of Crimea.

The U.S. factory data “is a little bit weaker, but nothing changed much,” said Donald Williams, Sydney-based chief investment officer who helps manage manages about $1.6 billion at Platypus Asset Management Ltd. in Sydney. “It’s a grinding recovery and some of the data are better than expected and some are worse.”

US Futures
Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.1 percent today after the measure declined 0.5 percent yesterday.

Manufacturing
A Markit Economics Ltd. preliminary index of U.S. manufacturing fell to 55.5 in March from 57.1 a month earlier, the London-based group said yesterday. Economists had expected a reading of 56.5. A level above 50 indicates expansion and this month’s reading was the second-highest since January 2013.

China’s manufacturing industry weakened a fifth straight month, a preliminary China Purchasing Managers’ Index from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics showed yesterday. Signs of faltering factory output in the world’s two biggest economies come as U.S. policy makers rein in stimulus and as Chinese lawmakers pledge to maintain growth while curbing shadow banking and credit expansion.

Economic Sanctions
Sanctions imposed by the U.S. and the European Union are pushing Russia toward a recession as the intensity of their economic penalties increases after the annexation of Crimea earlier this month.

Banks including state-run VTB Capital say the world’s ninth-biggest economy will shrink for at least two quarters as penalties for annexing Crimea rattle markets, curb investment and raise the cost of borrowing. Sanctions that have so far focused on individuals with visa bans and asset freezes may be expanded to target specific areas of the economy.

G-7
The Group of Seven major powers decided to hold a summit in Brussels in June instead of a planned G-8 meeting in Sochi in the latest sanction against Russia. U.S. President Barack Obama and his fellow G-7 leaders met in The Hague to agree on the next steps in the crisis, amid growing concern that Russia is building up its forces on the border with Ukraine.

“Military skirmishes, even though major powers are involved in this particular case, they tend to be relatively short-lived events,” Williams at Platypus Asset Management said. “Even if it escalates and markets correct more significantly, that will just be a buying opportunity.”

FTSE Outlook

FTSE100 Prediction
FTSE100 Prediction

6570 is the current line in the sand based on yesterdays high and the bulls will need to break that, but with the 20 day Raff sitting at a channel top of 6585 they might be hard pressed. While there is still fairly negative news flow investors will be keeping their powder dry, however, having had a decent bounce off the 6504 area yesterday, the bulls are holding their own. That said, with the trade plan below, i have put some shorts on around 6570 and 6585 which I expect to yield a decent drop. I haven’t plotted the blue arrows after that area as i think its fairly key. If its breaks then 6600 and 6630 are likely, if it holds then we will be back down to 6500 pretty quickly. 50/50 at that resistance area and favouring the drop myself. I am still, for the moment, looking at the “short the rallies” play.

145 Comments

  4. Stopped long now 50 points + made and running a short from 6593 hoping for 20 points nothing major all low value still

    1. closed short at 85 not sure about it now think I will sit out for the day unless another entry long comes up 6530-50

  5. lol, Nick you think we will see that dip ? It has been a choppy year in US.
    But FTSE is for a reverse. The only diference is that, this is not 2013.

    1. For now, the market is recovering on a talk about China stimulus…lol…the funny think is that NO ONE is talking in there about it!!..the traders come up with the idea because the data out of China haven’t been good so they telling us they will stimulate. In my opinion, not a chance!..lol…

  8. hashmash says:
    March 25, 2014 at 8:12 am
    Close above 6600 n ill turn bullish n take my mpderate losses

    There’s a joining fee mate !!

  9. All things being equal, I’d expect the FTSE to run up now to ≥ 6750. But they never are of course. How far can the FTSE travel without US backing? Will that be forthcoming?

    1. Why? you are looking for 10-20 points, when you can wait for a dip to look for at least 100 points. 4 hourly candle closed. Reverse mode

      1. No chance to fight price action.
        Follow the price… I made a mistake this overnight, but this FTSE is so slow, I was trying to buy the cheapest price. DID NOT TRIGGERED.
        HASH warn me of quick moves in FTSE. That’s what happened today.
        Now sidelines, looking to find a dip and looking again to US, also not very promising.
        We have a bubble tech in Nasdaq, a very sensitive market. This could lead to another dip.

        1. cheapest price, was only the closing price yesterday, nothing out of this world. It open gap up, now….

  18. Still lookin for an out. N nitup what u on about joining fee…as if im not allowed to long a market without ur permission loool

        1. what ? I was asking Hash. I’m not going to short, no way. Looking for 100 points up in ftse, in the best swing I can get, as I already lost the one overnight

    1. And what a man with your expertise and confidence is STILL doing on here??
      I told you this before, if you are soooo good why are you not on the Bhamas??
      You should be VERY VERY RICH by now….lol…. or better working for one of the guys from his list. I assume they didn’t offer, did they??….lol

  23. I wouldn’t pop the cork just yet, remember Dow was over 100points up when it open, stayed positive most of the day just to end in red…..that tells me that there is luck of investors and the moves are done by daily trade

      1. so exactly what are you saying ?

        1. Sell here
        2. or wait for the dip to buy

        otherwise your observation / comment is preety well useless

        1. its individual decision….I don’t impose my views on others, I share them. That is ,what the forum is about. At the end of the day its your money so its your risk 🙂

  26. adam says:
    March 24, 2014 at 10:34 am
    ……. To take us higher in the market we need a catalyst and I just don’t see one on the horizon. You make your prediction and strategy based on last year movements of the market. There is no new investors coming the market, ……..

    market analysts are saying ( on TV & internet ) that ….this rally is because of russian money leaving russian banks …………

    well ther you have it !!!!!!!

    1. and you are listening to market analysts on TV and internet??!! good luck to you then…lol….just look what happened to Dow, lost70 points from open already, It wouldn’t surprise me if it close flat or in red again just as I said early…

    1. What do you men “will market reverse”??..you theory is that 6520 was the bottom and now, its only UP to 7100 by April…btw, you have only 4 more trading session to get the 500points you need… 🙂

  29. don’t think this will reverse past 60’s although hope it does for another long entry point

  30. Nitup u are a joke mate.

    Im still holding short avg open 6578..
    Im 8 points in loss…

    Tell me ur eexp please?
    Builder? Plumber?
    Education? Alevels?
    Becus u surely talk like someone who hasnt avcomplished much in life n boasts about little things

    2. 2 O-levels – 1. religious Education 2. agriculture

      I work in stock-room in clarks shoe stores near barnet
      ( not gonna tell u which one cus i dont want people to know
      but its one of them. )

      come round – I’ll get you 10% discount

  31. Now, I will only try enter again for a long position n FTSE for a swing 100 points, overnight session, IF, only IF:
    FTSE daily chart looks promising with MA’s and US close.

  32. Ftse behaving strangely banking on a drop before close. Very frustrating last few weeks, no real direction.

  34. Short on FTSE expect a little sell off before close if levels stay high ish then slow climb back up if dow stays strong

  35. US markets are pain in the ass. Undecided all over the place. No conviction.
    But FTSE looks very promising from this bottom, that it made, unless an unexpected close.
    For now, very strong and looking for a reverse. But it will have a lot of bumps, because of US undecided markets

  36. adam

    try reading the full sentence

    Nitup V says:
    March 25, 2014 at 2:47 pm
    but the real question is – will market reverse from 6575 or 6560

    1. I had…. why you even saying “the real question is”, what question? you have been telling us that the market will only go UP from 6520 so why do you have any questions???!!

    1. I hope it has one more stab at 16400 then sell of race at close Ill have a short order on that ill see how today plays out.

  38. adam

    adam says:
    March 25, 2014 at 3:06 pm
    and you are listening to market analysts on TV and internet??!! good luck to you then…lol….just look what happened to Dow, lost70 points from open already, It wouldn’t surprise me if it close flat or in red again just as I said early…

    remember the analyst – who said this …..

    adam says:
    March 24, 2014 at 10:34 am
    Well Nitup,

    To take us higher in the market we need a catalyst and I just don’t see one on the horizon. You make your prediction and strategy based on last year movements of the market. There is no new investors coming the market, its old money being reused again and again by daily traders. don’t forget we have now $55B of QE, that is $35B less then this time last year. The US government is still sealing the same amount of bonds so the $35B have to come from somewhere. That means less money going in the stock market to buy shares

  39. Will buy the dips now, russia now beginning talks with ukraine.
    Also earnings season not too far away, chance for traders to get excited over shit company earnings.

    1. Midterm I do see this getting back to 6800 levels or close I just don’t hold to much overnight the interest kills my profits pretty fast.

    1. We all need to wear shoes my friend. I’ll give it a 50 : 50
      you wear one also

      By the way you never answered a simple question

      hashmash says:
      March 24, 2014 at 6:32 pm
      http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/9566915/The-biggest-hedge-fund-managers-in-the-world-in-pictures.html?frame=2351025
      not gonna tell u which one cus i dont want people to know
      but its one of the top in that list.

      curious – hashmash –

      1. you trading ur own £ / $ or is it the hedge funds?
      2. what’s a man with your status – doing in a place like this ?

    2. True colours

      how about fixing me with a bit of your
      ” artificial intelligence ”
      maybe we can argue then !!

  42. Added another FTSE short at 6597 not going to hold for ages around ftse close then ill kill it off.

    1. Would love to try another entry in DOW below 16100 for the short term. My profits in that trade were almost kill in Yellen FOMC. Never had a chance again entering.
      Now if I continue seeing this slow drift drop in US, will try another shot below 16000

    2. FTSE should see a drop after 4pm if my plan/guess is right dax and dow are moving down FTSE has held so I’m banking on a sell off before close.

    2. You bet. In the morning saw it and immediately had that frustrating feeling of missing this 100 point swing.

  51. Not dumped yet..
    Waiting n waiting.. looking for US to push ftse down after close…
    My avg open is 78 so good chance getting close to it

    1. hey hashy

      even though you are an arrogant snob
      take a bit of advise from a shoe-seller

      dont get married to your position

  52. LOL just closed it on final FTSE bits and I made £4.80 better than a loss I guess buys me a coffee

  54. Forgot about Divi my ig account is minus £19 weird never had a minus fund balance how does that work do I need to pay that or does it just come off when I add funds.

      1. I withdrew all my balance so at zero then the divi added after leaving a funds of minus £19. I understand that divi taken on short and given on longs but never seen it after funds have been removed.

  58. Btw Nitup, i didnt want to come intp this conversation but Hashmash is one of the best traders on this forum, i follow nick, who is brilliant, but hash is a pretty good trader aswell as are a few of the other guys you seem to be having disputes with.
    I dont really like reading the comments on this forum when most of them seem to involve you arragantly disputing others opinions constantly, and stubbornly trying to hold everyone to account.

    1. I agree on both sides there will always be winners and losers but the idea of this site is to help each other, all these comments is just muddying peoples judgements.

    2. Jss

      I am not disputing that hashmash – is a brilliant trader
      for one minute.

      Disputing other peoples opinion – No – if that is what you think.

      Stubborn about my analysis – yes probably 90%.
      10% – I don’t know. Trying to get answers from the other
      forum members about why they say “sell” or Buy – yes.

      Irritated about – people who look down on illeterates like me
      – absolutely

      Trading – is more about trying to control your emotions – period.
      Accepting what you Actually see – not about what you think
      or want to happen.

      If I have sturred up debate ( sometimes in a wrong manner )
      Guilty.

      So please – see it for what it is.

      yes I am long – from 6500 – ( at times wanted to close it )

      1. For the love of god, will you blood hell just shut up!!….if trading is about controlling emotion then I have no idea how do you exist??!!, you don’t start debates, you try to impose your opinion on others and god have mercy on the one who doesn’t agree with you! I have never met more irritating person in my life!!

  59. I could be in FTSE right now from 6530, if I follow advice from HASH when he told me that FTSE gives quick moves that you can not catch. I exited, when I was afraid of being stuck in a narrow range for a long time.

  60. My strategy was right from the beginning. No way FTSE could trade below 6500 for more than 2 days. It would lose the trend from a couple of years. And people that try to short or long markets, should look first at charts and then everything else (medicine powders, indicators, whatever…).

  62. 2nd day DOW stronger than SPX. Could mean anything ? Catch up, before a big move to the upside and being positive 1st for the year ?

    1. Was looking for that also in the past days, when I was in DOW, before being stopped out in my profits in Yellen’s comments. Another frustration to absorve

  63. However Nitup you are right. Trading is all about controlling emotions together with a half decent plan and risk management strategy.
    Btw – I have a masters with a thesis in Market Imperfections and have worked in trading firms for over 15 years both front and back. Still no clue……..so qualifications in themselves mean diddly squat.
    But yes the beauty / dangers of forums are that those who post the most or most aggressively get heard the most. Maybe we should all publish our ytd % return at the end of each month. However of course some people would lie.

    1. How about screen shots then?
      I recently got annoyed with someone and presented facts, then again I guess the people will manipulate these too.

      Not really worth it at the end of the day, hence me staying out of it and focussing on the trades I have open.
      Don’t really see much of an emotional control from some of the posts, so confident that it has an affect on those individual’s trades as well 😉

      I am new to trading and must take my hat off to this forum. I have learnt a lot here and mostly from the few who hardly post or argue, with the exception of Hash off course 🙂

      So a thank you to all of you and a special thanks to Nick!

  65. Thanks Havies. Gl to you too. Yes this forum is great and you can tell which guys are in control of their emotions and which aren’t. It’s just a rites of passage that every young trader has to go through.
    Also you find some guys post and then don’t obviously hear from them for weeks or months. Obviously blown their account. Again nothing to be ashamed of as we have all done that.

    1. 2006 was my first experience in fast markets day trading. Was a bit tired of trading stocks without leveraging. Earn good money on it, but then I was stuck with no more upside. So I started looking to other ways. Earn a lot of money with warrants and thought this was easy money and fast than stocks. Then one day in an NFP release I started to earn a lot in a couple of seconds, shorting DAX. And instead of exit with profit I remain in the market, looking for more money in a decent drop in all markets. But then the market took the opposite direction and I started to loose money and could not accept it, so I stayed a couple of days. Finally I gave up and started to have random trades to regain my capital and gains. I gave up and promise not to trade again in fast markets. Stick to stocks where I made money in a slow way.
      A couple years ago I re-started from scratch with a strategy of entering and exited for 2-3points. Made 150% in less than a year (meantime, recover all that money lost in 1st experience) and was spending my earnings. I felt like the master of the world.
      My strategy was unbeatable. It had some looses, but quick recovers.
      My capital was never touched, until one day, I needed some of that capital and taken out in advance and confident I could place it with my earnings again.
      One day I change my strategy of 2-3 points:
      Made my 2-3 points and stay in the market for a while, because the markets were green and could see it go further. The reason for this change in strategy, was because of regaining my capital faster.
      That was when that IMF guy caught in a Hotel with a maid, remember ? markets dropped quite fast.
      The biggest error. Never change your strategy when you are in a position.
      My gain gone from 150% to 10%. My capital was spent. So no capital and gave up again.

      SOme time ago, I saw a Youtube video of a guy that worked in GS, talking about traders. They usually use the money they earn – The biggest error traders do quite often. YOu shuold never touched that money. THis is how Hedge fund managers work. Is an investment… when you are happy, than you exit all markets for good and invest wherever you want.

      This is my experience. Right now my strategy is to spend 40% of 100% gains.

      1. Ah forgot to say…. that 2-3 points strategy was good at that time with that instruments I used.
        But looking now, I could not repeat that strategy again. For instance, the instruments I used are different from the ones today.

        Nowadays I prefer a medium term trade, but has been very difficult this year and sometimes I think my old strategy works better

        1. In the end, what I meant to say is that short term trades sometimes work better and in 2014 could have earn decent money.
          2x in DOW in a medium term strategy, was stopped twice in profits this year.
          I want to stick with that strategy with low leverage and medium term position but 2014 is not 2013 and volatility kill your profits instantly.
          Maybe I’m looking to targets that are out of reach.
          If I make a good profit in one day, I should exit, even if the markets are in a friendly trend. 2014 has been very tricky in that way. I can no longer trust in holding positions for more than a couple of days.

  68. Next dip? Ask Nitup V he appears to know it all or so he thinks

    The rest of us just treat him like the clown he is

  69. I thought we cud share knowledge here but it seems like soon as u say something u get attacked personally..

    but thanks jss for sticking up for me.

    anything stupid about me i just wont reply to as its just distracting..
    Trading itself occupies the mind more than enough dont need shoe shiners taking a piece of my mind cus they wana show how good they are in trading.
    I made a bad trade..closed at a loss of 22 points (moderate loss due to amount of size)
    That doesnt mean i did something bad becus i make alot of bad trades n so does everyone else.. its all about trying to make a small profit becus trading is a long term game.

    One thing ive realixed is most successful traders dont like telling when they made lpss or profit.. becus they know even a slight over confidence messes up their whole mentality…id rather lose 90% of my trading account then a successful trading mentality…not sayoing that i have a perfect succesful trading mentality but not busting my account for several years is definetly an accomplishment for me (mainly becus before id trade with £100 thimking id turn it into millions in a couple weeks loool)

    Anyway goodluck to everyone

    Tomorrow ill be trying to look at how market behaves..whether today was an overshoot by ftse or not… my indicator totally telling to be on sidelines for now.

    1. Ps Hash, was trying to say that I think you know your stuff and I learn from you, so please keep up your posts;)

      Just think you do not need to get yourself too involved with other opinions, however ridiculous they are…

  70. Hashmash you know what they say when the shoe shine boy start telling where the markets going it’s time to sell!!

  72. Thanks guys but yeh i did get involved in weird convos ill jus keep my posts related to trading n some humour .. wirhout humour its all boring 🙂

  74. Gold going down. Have an order placed at 1275 for an upside swing.
    FTSE seems it has broke the downside and is facing a double top here. DOW seems a little more stronger than SPX, being SPX the benchmark.

  75. Lol pms im with u… i want to long.. but at same time dont know if its an overshoot today… im gna stay on sidelines. N see how tmrw play.. but looking at markets right nkw it looks like a shootup tnrw aswell!!!

  76. Been a poor month for me as am long. However that’s ok as still far ahead of my ytd budget and I ultimately measure myself at the end of year.
    Looking for a strong end to the week, month and tax year. Maybe we can test 6675 – 6700.

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