6582 resistance, 6555 support

Good morning. Damn FTSE – short order sat at 6647, misses it by 2 points then drops to 6570. Sods law! Anyway, as expected, we had a little dip then the rise yesterday before a dose of reality saw indices drop, a few points we got within the live trading room, even if we did miss the “top”. Interestingly though gold didn’t rise much, instead dropping to the 1298 support level mentioned. Thats interesting as it might well mean that the indices bounce back just as fast as they dropped as there was no flight to safety. If 6555 area holds as support on the FTSE I can see us back above 6600 today, maybe ready for a drop tomorrow if GDP under delivers.

Raffs
Raffs

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks pared losses after U.S. President Barack Obama said complacency on Russia’s annexation of Crimea would ignore the lessons of two world wars. New Zealand’s dollar advanced after a bigger-than-estimated trade surplus, while platinum rose.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 0.1 percent by 1:25 p.m. in Tokyo trimming a 0.7 percent decline earlier. Japan’s Topix index pared a loss of as much as 2 percent as most stocks traded without the right to their latest dividend. Information technology shares plunged. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures rose 0.2 percent. The so-called kiwi climbed to the highest in a week. Platinum snapped a three-day drop.

Obama said after a meeting with European leaders that the global order is at “a moment of testing” and vowed to increase Russia’s economic and political isolation if it doesn’t alter course on Ukraine. China reported industrial profit growth slowed to 9.4 percent year to date as money-market rates increased the most since January. The U.K. releases retail sales data before the U.S. publishes initial jobless claims figures and a final reading for fourth-quarter economic growth.

“There’s definitely the chance that things will escalate on the fact that the U.S. has been speaking increasingly strongly about actions,” Angus Gluskie, managing director at White Funds Management Ltd. in Sydney where he oversees about $550 million, said by phone today. “It’s likely that the market will get nervous.”

USA
U.S. stocks extended declines in the last hour of trading as investors sold companies that have led the S&P 500’s bull market. The S&P 500 closed at 1,852.56, a 1 1/2-week low, after climbing during the session to within three points of its last record closing level, reached March 7.

Leading Declines
Technology, health-care, consumer and mining shares, all up more than 170 percent since March 2009, slipped0.7 percent in the final hour of trading in New York, while the Russell 2000 gauge of smaller companies saw about one-third of its 1.9 percent drop come during the period.

“It was probably a continuation of the past few days, with investors selling off some of the winners and high fliers,” Sean Sun, an equity research analyst at Santa Fe, New Mexico-based Thornburg Investment Management Inc., which oversees $94 billion, said by phone. “It definitely feels like the markets re more volatile recently than they have been.”

Ukraine
Obama said there is no military solution to the situation in Ukraine and that the door remains open to diplomacy with Russia. Ukraine will receive an assessment today from the International Monetary Fund on its bailout request.

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

I have some resistance at 6582 today so we may get an initial dip from there, probably down to the 6555 (6548 is S3 on live charts so with a  stop below this) level to start with. If that holds as support then a rise to the pivot at 6616 is likely, possibly even 6650. Further upside after that will depend on GDP tomorrow I think. With the drop yesterday we have dipped from being above the 20 day raft channel on the daily chart as expected, just from not quite the level I had penciled in. Which was annoying, anyway, moving on…..

I think that the 6555 level will hold today, though if S3 goes at 6548 the next level of support might not be till 6490 looking at the ProTrend on daily….

Its worth mentioning that there will be ISA money coming into the FTSE early April as you know which will keep it up for a while, then I think it will start dropping, its being kept up so as not to scare that retail money from entering.

115 Comments

    2. I’d rather wait for US open? Yesterday’s drop saved my skin. I was -180 points at 13.30 and down to 0 at 20.00
      I planned to hold short longer but decided to exit anyway to get a better short entry. I don’t regret exiting although I was targeting 16100. Just with this rise in the past couple of days my short entry wasn’t great.

  5. I think I get it now how FTSE contradicts Dow. In the first half of the day FTSE rises as it wants to rise and in the second half of the day Dow drops as it wants to drop and takes FTSE with it. It’s nowadays, sometimes it on the contrary. But sometimes they coincide with their direction and then we have Rise – correction – Rise, or Drop – correction – Drop. And it seems Dow wants to drop nowadays to catch up with the drop that already happened on FTSE so it stagnates FTSE rise in meanwhile.
    That’s just my thoughts overall.

  7. This is the worst year ive had lol.. i ever so slighty break my high waterwarm n then im down n then i manage to break even…3 months now n im not even placing that many trades…

  9. i need to catch 500 points by year end to be in track of my performance forecast…
    can barely catch 50 points these days!

  10. Long in FTSE for now
    6500 was the reverse . Is just taking a pause. That massive sell off was a guy betting millions to short SPX.
    We may see now a short squeeze.
    Who knows …

  11. Cant believe I was involved in FTSE after closed managed a £40 loss which I was happy as it tanked bad afterwards. Dax seems to holding well still strange one?

    1. just closed mine too Senu. I suspect this will rise to 95ish then head down from there this afternoon

  13. ok guys – im a full bear now, indicator has kicked in, markets falling (better sign than if they were going up)…bad releases expected in US and UK, very nice room for down movement on 30mins,4hour,daily intervals on RSI stoc macd also we are staying within the down channels and not breaking any resistance…
    i guess this is the strongest signal i have seen this year (hope so lol).

    Currently have short open from 6583 looking to add more, hopefully be breaking 6500 by end of tomorrow.
    GL all.

          1. Really cant see it breaking 6600 I would expect a lot sell orders around there today after what happened yesterday.

  15. ftse so boring today…missed the morning dip just looking for a suitable entry- looks like it wants to dip towards 6560 again but i think ill look to go long towards us opening hmm gl luck guys

    1. yea thats fine with me, ive already opened a short at 6583 and am thinking of adding at 6570, but if it somehow goes to 6590 then i have a significantly large sell there

    1. be super pissed if i have to close this trade on a loss!! currently in profit.
      BTW have added another lot of short at 6572

        1. no stops yet
          but if we get a close above 6590 on 2 30minute candles consecutively then ill close half short and hold till tomorrow UK GDP release, unless something crazy happens and bulls emerge from no where then ill close everything!!!

  21. lol, is in consolidation. I had a long position at 6502 futures overnight that was stopped at b/e, by the b*** spread this morning. Still have the other at 6557. And looking to add again in a lower level, if it breaks, which I do not see it, but who knows.

    1. can u explain in a couple bullet points ur bullish views please :), like to know what i could be missing! becus either im very good at sticking to my strategy ORRRRRR im stuck with a bearish mentality for no reason!

  24. My bullish view is in the charts. Longer term trend line, that comes from 2011, not violated and other from Jun 2013

  25. I’m only pissed, because I’v bought in higher levels, instead of holding that at 6470, before the big jump. Now is just a matter of time, but nevertheless I’m pissed.

    1. And ftse just tempting for me to add again at 6500, but prefer not leverage more at open session.
      If it goes dip I will look another level.

  29. But the ES mini has 1832 for a visit soon. Big VPOC there, so this could lead FTSE to stay here ou below some more days.

  33. VOPC at 1832 ES visit in the 1st half our of pit session. There I thought more time, because there is a lot of interest. But big bounce from there. Lot of buyers there

  34. 6590 soon to hit, adding last short there for today…hope it repeats its behaviour of dropping after close

  37. ok i think if tmrw ftse dont fall i will stop trading until theres some move in the market…its just stress for no reason and risking my account unnecessarily.

  41. ES mini, with 1848 top. Needs to clear that. But it was for small time that visit to 30’s. It needs a new visit to that poor low.

    FTSE has nothing to do with that. FTSE is in it’s new path from a couple of days. But I see more people complaining as me sometime ago, about that it’s moves. It has makes quick moves and then starts to rangebound, until the next big move.

  46. Looking at the same as you Hash, short 25@85 and 50@92, s&p holding below 1850, stop at 6625. Sit here and suffer till we break lower, targeting a trend lower to 6400

  49. Well the market did not disappoint the bull nor the bear today.
    Certainly for me – my long 6597 from yesterday – is till alive and rearing
    to go higher.
    From a bullish angle – today appears like a bottom building.
    form the bearish approach – today is the calm before the storm.
    One thing is for sure – todays price action – along with the positions
    & stops placed in the market will make for an explosive breakout –
    very soon.

  50. another quick move in FTSE, as always. Only pissed, because my 2nd position was stopped at b/e this morning. Only left with the other position at 6557 futures.
    Unless I see another move overnight to those levels again, I will add again.
    For now, nothing more to report, lol.

  51. The reason I exited to soon some days ago with 24 points profit in FTSE, beyond thinking that 6600 and above were not to be hit that day, WAS AFRAID OF LOSING ENTRY POINTS IN MY DOW AT LOWER LEVELS.
    And now, it happened, yesterday, and stuck now in FTSE. That is my sentiment.
    Did not catch DOW at lower levels and bought FTSE and higher levels. Even so in a medium term FTSE is still cheaper than US. That’s why I was looking here.

      1. well, sincerely, I rarely see much reaction in UK data from FTSE.
        For instance today, amazing retail sales. What you saw ? FTSE goes to hibernation after big moves, lol.

  54. And why I exited my DOW at 16080 in a medium term position, stopping out in my trail stop ?
    Well, was my dear Yellen and the bull** rate hikes.
    My strategy, was to add at lower levels and not exit that position for no reason, unless something extraordinary to happen. That happened with rate hikes.
    Made me very scary : taper + RATE HIKES.
    Was sure that we could see a big correction. But then I started reading about that and seems that new cycle of rate hikes comes with start of a bull market and opposite also happens. This is because a cycle of rate cuts comes with start of a recession and a new cycle of rate hikes comes with an improving economy.
    Also with that comes some short term reaction in markets. In the actual case I was expecting at least 5% correction and maybe much more, who knows.
    My interpretation, because of the QE still on, and after a 7% correction in past month, I think US markets are having a difficulty to correct again.
    And that you have it…

  55. Also not expecting big move tomorrow.
    Gdp doesnt affect shares muchvunless market is in bear market or openings of a bull market from what ive experienced

  58. I am expecting a nice tasty sell off into weekend Dow and FTSE heading down short term in my view. Beast of a Shooting star yesterday said it all

  60. I think if this is a losing trade i have now.. then im taking sometime off ftse as im getting super frustrated n thats not a good sign..like a time bomb waiting to go off.. have experienced it before lol

  62. Lets have a go at trying to decipher what the chart is saying for today !

    Morning session
    1. Yesterdays 4.30 close at 6590 area – will be the low for the market
    – possible 5/10 move below this ( 6580 )
    2. This move Higher will have to cross 5620 & 5630 – Which may take a
    couple of hours
    3. The possible target before US open will be 5655 / 60

    Downside for today AM – difficult to see that – except for a small move
    to yesterdays close

    GL guys – Safe Trading

  65. 2. This move Higher will have to cross 5620 & 5630 – Which may take a
    couple of hours
    3. The possible target before US open will be 5655 / 60

    typo mistake

    2. This move Higher will have to cross 6620 & 6630 – Which may take a
    couple of hours
    3. The possible target before US open will be6655 / 60

  68. i managed to close the short at 6602 and long from there…fking tiny long to cover some losses

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