6585 daily pivot support; 6610 and 6650 resistance. GDP out at 09:30, exp 2.7%

Good morning. The big news out today will be the UK GDP at 09:30 and expected to be 2.7% so keep that in mind. at 12:30 we have the US personal income and spending results so a little bit of chop then as well. I mentioned yesterday that I expected the day to be flat to slightly bullish with support at 6555, the low was 6560 and we have seen a slow gain since, hitting an overnight high of 6606. I still think we will rise a bit further and am looking at 6610 and 6650. Overall it was a fairly quiet day yesterday, with a fairly tight range on the FTSE, certainly during trading hours anyway, despite a drop in US jobless claims.

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark gauge heading for its biggest weekly increase in almost a year. Yahoo Japan Corp. plunged after agreeing to buy assets from its parent.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.4 percent to 136.63 as of 1:06 p.m. in Tokyo, reversing earlier losses. The measure has gained 2.9 percent since March 21. Chinese shares in Hong Kong are poised for a 6.4 percent surge this week, the most since November, while Japan’s Topix (TPX) index is set for its first weekly advance in three.

Today’s rally pared the MSCI Asia gauge’s loss this year to 3.3 percent. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said the country has policies in reserve to deal with any economic volatility this year and can’t ignore “difficulties and risks” from a slowdown, according to a central-government website statement.

“The market’s focus is switching to the next catalysts, such as expectations for government action,” said Masaaki Yamaguchi, equity market strategist at Nomura Holdings Inc., Japan’s biggest brokerage by market value. “In China, the economic outlook is worsening for sure, but I think hopes for government measures are providing a floor to the market.”

Weaker economic data from China is fueling optimism the government will act to stabilize growth. Reports this week showed a drop in profit growth for industrial companies, while a private gauge of manufacturing in the world’s second-largest economy signaled a third month of contraction for the sector, with the index declining more than economists had estimated.

Monthly Loss
The Asian regional stock gauge is poised for a 0.8 percent decline this month as investors weighed the development of the Ukraine crisis, the health of the U.S. economy with the Federal Reserve paring stimulus and the outlook for China.

“Investors are a bit unsure given these issues regarding Ukraine, China, how strong the U.S. economy is when the Fed is tightening and what will happen in Japan after the sale-tax increase,” said Shane Oliver, Sydney-based head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors Ltd., which has $140 billion under management. “All of them are causing investors to hold back a little bit and we are seeing messy action in share markets.”

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.2 percent today. The measure lost 0.2 percent yesterday, led by banks and technology companies, as investors resumed a rotation out of the bull market’s biggest winners.

Yesterday’s drop left the S&P 500 unchanged for the year. Losses this month have been steepest in U.S. stocks that led the five-year-old bull market, with consumer discretionary companies falling 4.3 percent after quadrupling since March 2009.

Jobless Claims
Applications for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly declined last week to an almost four-month low, a sign companies are confident in the outlook for demand, data yesterday showed. Gross domestic product grew at a 2.6 percent annualized rate from October through December, less than the 2.7 percent median forecast of 79 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

Todays pivot is 6585 so I expect any dip to find support there initially, before a rise to the 6610 area pre GDP figures. Depending on them i think we will either climb to 6650, or drop to 6550. it wouldn’t surprise me if we are at 6610 at 09:29 today. Still, its Friday so bound to do something weird!

We have the top of the 20 day Raff at 6620 as well so the bulls will be hard pressed to break that area again, though they did do a good job of breaking out earlier this week. If they do manage to break out for a second time then it might stick this time and the 10 day Raff channel will be back in play, with resistance at 6680.

Basically pre GDP news I’m thinking a dip and rise, and then 60/40 favouring a dip after the news. I have put a pink arrow on the chart below as a plan B showing the rise to 6635/6650 as the reverse (well aware I’m hedging my bets here but the blue arrow is the preferred path).

79 Comments

  1. traderS says:
    March 28, 2014 at 7:40 am
    Lets have a go at trying to decipher what the chart is saying for today !

    Morning session
    1. Yesterdays 4.30 close at 6590 area – will be the low for the market
    – possible 5/10 move below this ( 6580 )
    2. This move Higher will have to cross 6620 & 6630 – Which may take a
    couple of hours
    3. The possible target before US open will be 6655 / 60

    Downside for today AM – difficult to see that – except for a small move
    to yesterdays close

    GL guys – Safe Trading

    1. So they didn’t say we will dip in to the red few hours after open???ohhhh, bad bad charts…lol

    2. and they didn’t see the downside for AM either !…if I were you I would have a world with the chars!!

  4. Davros FTSE is a f**** market.
    Believe me. I’ve been here many times. You need to have patience, lots of it. Go do other things. Do not look at charts. Wait for the close.

  9. closed long at 24 as well…was gonna short from there but thought i better not get too hasty.
    my indicator lost its bearishness as well…
    im agreeing with pms and nick, we will be range bound till april..
    in that time my indicator for trading is as good as flipping a coin..

      1. daily pivot looking at 30 min chart strong reversal and with 20 50 and 200 ma turned on we have hit 20ma allready.
        50 ma at 90
        200 ma at 80

  16. i closed my shorts this morning with heavy loss..now my long getting smashed!! i m done with f**ing ftse.

  17. Isaac looking for a bounce off 80 in a minute to end down run then I am thinking of going for a run up

    1. i hope so..i m long from 6610 n 6618 🙁 thought its enough to break out 6620 to get 6650..but all of a suudden this happened. so annoying this ftse.

  24. Closed longs out at 6620- when it couldn’t hold it for a BE outcome.

    Missed the opportunity to put them back on at 6585 so waiting now till US opens. Blinken hard to make positive headway at the moment!

  26. Nick
    Could you explain your prediction .
    Are you now saying that as we are at 85 we are going to 6610 or we have completed 6610 even though we went
    , to 6631. and we are heading for 6570 or to 6650. the fact that you predicted only 6610 but it went to 6630 , did it not negate your prediaction to 6580. sorry for my confusion as both sides are being shown and one side is bound to be correct
    Gary

    1. That’s a trick with Nick’s chart, you will see what you want to see in them. He cannot predict exact moves.
      You see the pink arrow there it suggests that the price can go up or down at the test of the top? It looks like it’s coming and will it bounce or go through, nobody knows.

  27. I only ask this as i am trading with my own money and find it difficilt to see how to trade based on your figures
    Gary

    1. Was hoping for an initial dip to 6585 but it did some bull shit rise pre GDP. Could have shorted that of course as it was all bollocks, instead just waited for it to come to my entry for a long which was 6585. I have just closed that at 6614. That was the one and only trade i had planned for today (long 6585).

      1. Nick, may I ask, why don’t you trade Dow? You would possibly have +70 now for the same run on FTSE.

        1. Tried Dow, but prefer to just focus on one thing and be in the zone on it. I do find, personally, for trading, I’d rather trade one thing than try and be clever and trade lots of things not very well.

          1. I agree with you 100% so I don’t trade FTSE for now. Just focus on Dow. It just suits my style – couldn’t get morning moves on FTSE due to sleeping activity. 🙂

  35. FTSE is so undervalued and no one takes a step and say – Buy FTSE, forget the other markets that are overvalued

  37. Nick
    ok thanks. So in a roundanout way these are only your guess on market movement.
    Do you update or give a running commemtary on the market
    Gary

  40. Could i ask anyone who takes nicks trades , how have you traded it, regarding stop and exits?
    also any advise regarding the accuracy?
    gary

    1. This is what i put on my morning email to members for today plan, just the one trade today:

      Trade Plan
      Long 6585 stop 6578 target 6610, 6650

  43. Nick
    So you only suggested 1 trade.
    In that case why do you draw the arrows?
    it is a bit confusing!
    Do members also these arrows or is their arrows shown differrntly like just one from 6585 going up?
    do the arrows represent something else?
    Hope you do not mind me asking these questions before deciding to join? As i want to be sure
    Gary

  44. Gary,nicks pretty accurate. And if his trades go shit, the stop losses minimise the losses.
    And i think he said that you can make 100-150 pips a month. But i think thats a bit modest.
    Still remember when he made the brilliant call a month back on ukraine, to short and next day go long. There were 200 pips to be made right there.
    I signed up a while back and trades pulled off instantly. Its not guaranteed, but 30 quid a month is nothing for what you get.

    1. best bet as soon as you get nicks e mail put on an order….. do something else if you can get 10 points most days . it is much better than over doing it because you will get caught in the end

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