FTSE 100 outlook prediction analysis for 14th November 2019
European markets went into retreat as investor sentiment underwent an about-face following hawkish comment on global trade by Donald Trump, the US president, and an unexpected slowdown in US inflation.
Indices across the world lost ground while bonds rebounded and safe-haven commodities strengthened.
On Tuesday night, in a speech made after markets closed in Europe, Mr Trump accused the EU of imposing “terrible” trade barriers, raising fears that the tariff war between the US and China, driven by the White House’s protectionist economic policy, could blow up on a transatlantic front.
The president faced a deadline to take a decision on EU car tariffs yesterday, but was widely expected to kick the can down the road for a further six months. Europe’s top indices all lost ground, with Spain dropping particularly far after its socialist party reached a coalition deal with the far-left Podemos party.
Markets On Edge
Asian stock futures were mixed ahead of a slew of Chinese economic data as investors remained on edge about whether Beijing and Washington will be able to agree on a partial trade deal, and havens from gold to Treasuries rose. Futures were flat in Tokyo and slipped in Hong Kong, while contracts in Australia edged up. The 10-year Treasury yield fell the most in more than a week. Elsewhere, the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a record as Disney surged following the debut of its streaming service, and West Texas crude rose to $57 a barrel. In South Korea, markets will open an hour later than usual on Thursday due to the national college exam.
Looking ahead, todays news highlights include German Flash GDP, UK Retail Sales, EU Flash Employment & GDP, US Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly EIA Inventories, OPEC Monthly Report, Banxico Rate Decision
FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis
The bulls fought back strongly from 7300 yesterday but overnight we have hovered around the 7330 level with a mixed session on the Asian markets. After that climb the 2 hour chart is weakly bullish with support at the 7327 level so we may well see an initial push up this morning towards the 7347 level where we have the 200ema on the 30min. Should the bulls break above this then I am looking at 7377 where we have the key fib level.
The dips are certainly getting bought up quickly though the S&P has failed to recapture the 3103 level as yet. Should the bears break below 3090 today then we should still see that leg down towards the 3055 level, provided they can break 3075. That would also drag the FTSE 100 down, and while there is initial support today at 7290, the daily coral at the 7233 area is still looking like it will be tested at some point.
The 10 day Raff channel bottom has moved below the 20 day channel for the first time in a while so we may well be starting to see the bears getting a bit stronger. Though the bulls certainly still have the upper hand.
Should they break above the 7377 level then the 7420 level is R3 and not beyond the realms of possibility, along with the daily resistance at 7440. That said I am thinking that we get a modest climb this morning before a slide down towards the 7290 level. With the bottom of the Raff channels and the 200ema on the daily here, I would expect this area to hold, at least initially. The bulls will of course still be keen to keep the price above the 7300 level.
So fairly simple plan for today and feeling that we may well see a dip down again. Can the bulls buy it up again though? The news flow is turning slightly more native regarding China and also the trade wars. The fear/greed indicator remains on extreme greed at 87/100 though has dropped back a bit. Good luck today.
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