FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 19th November 2020
London shrugged off early pessimism and traders relished another piece of positive news: Pfizer said its vaccine is better than first revealed, with a 95pc effectiveness as opposed to the last week’s announcement of 90pc.
The FTSE 100 gained 0.3pc by close, to 6,385.24.
Midcaps also jumped, as hopes of a post-Brexit trade deal added to optimism. The domestically focused FTSE 250, considered a barometer for Brexit sentiment, closed 0.9pc higher.
The EU’s Trade Commissioner said Britain and the EU were in the last moments to reach a Brexit trade deal.
Overnight, Asian bourses were mixed as the region partially shrugged-off the risk-averse mood that rolled over from US where early vaccine optimism faded amid COVID-19 concerns. Selling in the US exacerbated heading into the close after New York City Mayor De Blasio announced the closure of all public schools from today.
95% Effective
Pfizer says its vaccine is 95% effective, paving the way for the company to apply this week for the first U.S. regulatory authorization for a coronavirus shot. The U.S. drugmaker and partner BioNTech SE said their vaccine protected people of all ages and ethnicities, with no significant safety problems so far in a trial that included almost 44,000 participants. Pfizer shares were up 2% at 11:25 a.m. in New York, with BioNTech American depositary receipts gaining 5.3%. Moderna’s rival shot appears equally effective, and a third contender, from AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford, is expected to release trial results soon.
Markets Pressured
Asian stocks look set to come under pressure after U.S. shares closed at their lows as restrictions to curb the coronavirus spread overshadowed progress toward a vaccine. The dollar held near its lowest in two years. Futures slipped in Japan and Australia. The S&P 500 Index closed at its session low after New York City shut schools because of rising infections. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index earlier fell to the lowest since April 2018 as vaccine optimism lifted commodity prices and resource-linked currencies. Benchmark Treasury yields ticked higher. Oil edged higher.[Bloomberg]
FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis
Most Asian stocks fell, with a gauge tracking the region’s equities poised to end its longest winning run since 1988, as restrictions to curb the pandemic overshadowed progress toward a vaccine. Treasuries gained.
Stocks edged up in Japan, Australia and China, but were lower elsewhere. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index had risen for 13 consecutive sessions to Wednesday. S&P 500 futures fluctuated with the benchmark closing at its session low after New York City shut schools because of rising infections. Tokyo raised its coronavirus alert to the highest of four levels Thursday. Pfizer Inc. advanced earlier after saying its vaccine was 95% effective, paving the way to apply for the first U.S. regulatory authorization for a coronavirus shot within days. European futures fell.
The futures have fought back following yet another test of the 6310 level which has held overnight. We are now approaching initial resistance at 6345 where have the daily pivot and also the 30min coral (red) so we could see an initial dip first thing from here. The bulls however will be keen to push above this level as that will open up a test of the 2 hour resistance at 6387 where we have the Hull moving average, and above that the 2 hour coral line (also red) at 6410. As such, we could see a rise to these areas today before a bit of a stutter.
The S&P has also defended its lows overnight, climbing from the 3555 level and the bulls will be aiming for a test of the 2 hour resistance levels on that at 3613 for today – both the Hull moving average and coral line are there. Any move lower will need to defend the 3541 S1 level on any downside today.
For the FTSE, above the 6410 level the bulls will be keen for a push towards the 6500 level, but we do have R2 and R3 in the way first – 6430 and 6463 respectively. The bulls will be buoyed by the fact that both daily channels are heading upwards though, and the bottom of the 10 day Raff channel at 6270 will need to be defended if we got that low today.
For the bears, if they were to break that 6310 level (and its held well a few times now both in and out of hours) then 6261 is also daily support just below that Raff so we may well see this level held. That said, we have the key fib level at 6295 and S1 here so we could well see a defence of that level.
Generally looking like we will get a rise today, at least to test the various 2 hour resistance levels initially – 6386/6410 on the FTSE 3614 on the SP, 13146 on the Dax. For the FTSE the bulls will need to break 6345 initially and a smalll short here might well be worth a go to start with, as we have the pivot and 30min coral here. Good luck today.
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