FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 18th November 2020
Bear Tuesday was in full effect yesterday as the 6350 support level also gave way for a slide down to the 6310 level, before a bounce in the US lifted the FTSE back up. Full lockdowns across the US weighed on sentiment as well as general profit taking after the Moderna and Pfizer rallies.
- FTSE 100 slumps as stronger pound weighs
- EasyJet swings to £1.3bn loss
- US market pull back from record highs
- Foreign takeover rules could lead to ‘economic nationalism’, bosses warn
Oil maintained losses after an OPEC+ committee meeting ended without a concrete signal that producers will reverse plans to increase output in January.
Total US retail sales grew 0.3pc in October, compared to a month earlier, in the slowest pace in six months according to the Commerce Department. It suggests consumers are more hesitant amid a surging pandemic and lack of fresh federal stimulus. Bloomberg economists had estimated a 0.5pc increase. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of the US economy. November and December could prove tougher with states and cities reimposing restrictions to contain coronavirus.
Risks Remain
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the U.S. economic recovery is likely to continue at a “solid” pace yet risks losing momentum as the virus surges, adding that it was too soon to close the Fed’s emergency lending facilities. Powell called rising virus infection rates a “significant” downside risk “especially in the near term”. While U.S. payrolls have recovered for six consecutive months, a resurgence in infections threatens to curtail activity and slow the recovery with millions of Americans remaining out of work, and Powell said there were signs of this happening already.[Bloomberg]
FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis
Most Asian stock markets were steady Wednesday, while U.S. futures slipped as investors weighed escalating Covid-19 cases against optimism over a vaccine. Japanese equities dropped after Tokyo reported a record number of daily virus infections.
Stocks edged up in Hong Kong and Australia. European futures fell. The S&P 500 pulled back from a record high earlier. Pharmacy chains were among the worst performers after Amazon.com Inc. unveiled a new push into prescription drugs. Treasury yields and the dollar extended declines after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the U.S. economy still has a “long way to go” before it fully recovers from the pandemic.
China stocks posted modest gains, shrugging off news that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is pushing ahead with a plan that may kick Chinese companies off U.S. stock exchanges. China’s 10-year government notes are set for the highest since May 2019 amid concerns about tighter monetary policy as the economy recovers from the pandemic.
That was a decent bounce on the S&P yesterday from the 3590 level, however we are now back there following the overnight weakness. The 2 hour charts for the Dax, SP and FTSE are now all bearish as well, so we may well continue to see a decline as we unwind the vaccine driven rally. That said the FTSE is at the bottom of the 10 day Raff channel to start with today and we have a cluster of decent supports at the 6310 level – so we could see this hold early on for a bounce up towards the pivot at 6365.
We do have resistance slightly below this from the 30min coral at 6355 as I write this, and I have put the short order in-between these two levels, in case we do get a decent bearish reaction there. Above the 6365 level then the bulls will be keen to target the 2 hour resistance at 6408 currently (but moving slowly lower as its a moving average line).
We are now also below the 2 hour coral with 6419 resistance from that, so I am thinking that we may get a capping of upside there. Yesterdays FTSE decline was being blamed on a rising pound, but with cable now at 13300, we may see this hold steady here for the moment and then further moves as Brexit negotiations progress. That may well stabilise the FTSE 100 at the 6300 level for the moment.
Bit of a shame that the FTSE dropped off 6425 exactly yesterday missing the short order by 1 point as its been a pretty decent slide from there. The bears will now be keen to break below the 6310 level as that opens up a test of the 6260 level where we have some daily support. Below that then 6216 would be next up as we have the 200ema on the daily here, and a level that I would expect to hold. The 25ema on the daily is still down at 6063 so not ruling out a test of that prior to any further year end rally.
So, watching the 6310, 6260 levels for support today. 6360 6406 for resistance. Good luck today.
Recommended Broker
IC Markets – offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!
Membership and Live Trading
If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
What you get
- Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
- Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
- Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates
Keep up to date with new content, free sign up below
[yikes-mailchimp form=”4″]