Support 6883, 6864, 6848, 6832 Resistance 6904, 6928, 6937, 6968, 7010

Good morning. Well Friday lived up to the usual pattern! NFP beat estimates by quite a margin showing an improving picture, which spooked the US markets as they wheeled out the fears over earlier interest rate rises again. Good news is bad again! That triggered a downturn in pretty much everything, as profits were taken and shorts entered. Initial support today is 6882, the bottom of the 10 day Bianca so I am thinking we may see an initial rise up to the pivot at 6928 before more downside this week. The US markets looked like they had run out of bull steam last week anyway and it was just the Europeans that were pushing up. Shame the FTSE didn’t manage to test that 6969 level we had pencilled in for the short on Friday though. I feel we are on for a bearish March so short the rallies is probably a good mindset. Since 1984 March has only had an average return of 0.5%, and only risen 5 times since 2001, with the last week typically being the weakest.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
(Bloomberg) — Asian stocks fell, following U.S. equities lower, as better-than-forecast U.S. jobs data fueled speculation the Federal Reserve will be faster in raising interest rates.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.3 percent to 144.98 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo, with all 10 industry groups dropping. American employers added 295,000 workers last month, Labor Department data showed Friday in Washington, beating the median prediction in a Bloomberg survey of economists for a 235,000 increase. The unemployment rate fell to the lowest in almost seven years. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index sank 1.4 percent, the most since January.

The jobs report “should play out in terms of further weakness in stock markets,” Richard Gibbs, Sydney-based head of economics at Macquarie Group Ltd., told Bloomberg TV. “Those expectations of normalization of interest rates were brought forward again. A lot is going to rest on what is said or is not said by Fed officials in the U.S. this week.”

Japan’s Topix index lost 0.7 percent as the nation’s revised fourth-quarter gross domestic product rose less than estimated. South Korea’s Kospi index retreated 0.5 percent and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.7 percent. New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index slipped 0.2 percent.

Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index retreated 0.5 percent in most recent trading and contracts on the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of mainland firms listed in the city lost 0.8 percent.

China’s exports grew steadily in the first two months of the year, driven by the U.S. economic recovery, while imports fell in a reflection of weakened domestic demand and lower commodity prices.

Exports gained more than 48 percent from a year earlier in February, beating analyst estimates for a 14 percent jump, though the number was skewed by distortions from the timing of the Lunar New Year holiday. Together with January, overseas sales rose 15 percent, surpassing the government’s goal for 2015 of 6 percent. [Ref]

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

Todays pivot is 6928, (with the IG one at 6911), and support initially from the 10 day Bianca channel at 6882. As such I think may get an initial rise after Fridays falls, before more downside later today and over this week. I am bearish for the moment. On the daily FTSE chart, we have the 25ema also currently supporting proceedings, around 6883, and then below this the coral at 6848, which is also the bottom of the 50 day Bianca channel. Though I tend not to use the 50 day that much, preferring the 10 and 20 day. Anyway, main supports after the 6882 are 6864 (most recent low) with 6832 lower down. On the upside, resistance is mainly at 6928 though it will be interesting to see if 6911 gets a reaction too (IG pivot). Above 6928 would likely see 6950 though I would be surprised if it was bullish enough to push higher today as it feels like the worm has turned.

47 Comments

  1. Morning all, hope you had a good weekend and good luck for this week.

    All looks a bit flat to me, Nick’s first arrow doesn’t look too likely right now, 60 held first time but that bounce to 72 wasn’t very convincing so I have a little short @70, stop at 75.
    32 before 92? Hope so.

    🙂

        1. Two reasons:
          1) 80+ would mean my 15 min rsi getting into the ‘hot zone’ which indicates to me further gains possible and neutralises the current bear aspect of things
          2) I’m not that bearish and that 10 point loss on my average short would be enough for me.

          1. Still hanging in there, I operate my stops myself, don’t leave them on the platform. I wait for 2 out of the following 3x1m candles to confirm.
            Evenly balanced at the mo.

  2. Can anyone explain to me why the value of the FTSE100 varies across platforms eg FXCM IG etc and is not identical? Surely it should be given it represents the same cumulative market value of FTSE100 companies?

    1. The platforms are bookmakers, you will see differences in odds trackside at a horse race or online sports bet sites, depending on their exposure to minute by minute bets taken.
      They offer FTSE trackers, not mirrors.

    1. Why?

      Interesting some of you have such narrow stops on the FTSE. I don’t think I can stomach it having it only few points away. It could be wiped out so quickly. I guess you guys have strong conviction in the the intraday supports and resistance levels to hold.

      1. I said, if it gets there. You need to understand that price has possibility to go anywhere it wants. You need to think of possible scenarios, this is called a plan. It may do so or not.
        Why? I jotted Fib levels on the fall plus Pivot points and think, in order to short it needs to rise to one of the higher levels for example: Pivot Point 17939, Fib 62% 18030. And other points 50%, 38.2%. At the moment Pivot is close to 32% (17951) so I just think, if it gets to Pivot it will be just about 32% and it may turn down. I just will look for the price action. It needs US open of course to get things moving.

        1. By the way, Nick predicted a rise to about 62% on FTSE to short, so I think short is the one to look for.

      2. I’m what they call a scalper mate, a 10 point profit/loss is a big deal for me. I have developed a little micro trading system and can do 100 trades a week, in and out.
        Works for me, I never go to sleep with an open position, every day is a new day.

        1. Yes, 10 points is not that rare on FTSE to spot. For example today in the morning it created a perfect 10 point long set up. After double bottom at 11.44-48 enter 6866 with sl 6856. Tbh stop loss there is really 6858, 8 points could be reduced to.
          And what’s the problem? atm it’s 14 points up (nearly 2:1 already).

      1. it kind of possible, resistance 6882 must be holding. I just can’t figure out what Dow is doing. I suppose it’s going to my fib levels? So if Dow is so vigorous, maybe FTSE will break 6882?

    1. I’m massively long. Very frustrating day. I’m always short, short is my middle name. Except for today when I’m long – everything is up except for Mr Ftse. I swear the only thing stopping it rising is my long.

  17. Took 1st short at 17986 (50% retrace) and placed order short 18026 (62% retrace), second was triggered too and I closed all back at 17984, at least I won something today. I hate leaving trades overnight.
    Still 18026 seemed like a good entry 61.2%. But I hate paying charges and leave overnight short trades, sometimes they even deduct divi and it could be 2-3 times a week sometimes. They could be enormous.
    Cannot believe it actually got to the price I mentioned earlier: 18000-18020. Price can do anything.
    Not sure where it will go tomorrow.

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