Support 6858, 6849, 6835, 6805 Resistance 6882, 6905, 6935, 6944, 7010

Good morning. Well that turned into a bit of a consolidation day yesterday, and the bulls failed to break above the 6900 level, while the bears failed to break below the 6860 area, which was the low from a few sessions ago, and has now set itself up as the bottom of the 10 day Bianca channel. At the moment we are at a make or break – if the 6860 goes then we will dip down to 6835 (the bottom of the 20 day Raff) then 6800, whereas if it holds then another push for 7000 is likely. The 10 day channel is heading down now, so the bears are in control, and after that choppiness in the first week of March I would say the drop is more likely.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
(Bloomberg) — Asian stocks rose, following a rebound in U.S. equities, as a weaker yen boosted Japanese exporters and investors awaited data on China’s inflation.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.1 percent to 144.08 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo. The gauge sank to a three-week low on Monday after U.S. jobs data spurred traders to bring forward bets on higher interest rates for the world’s largest economy. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 0.4 percent on Monday after tumbling Friday following the employment report. China reports on consumer and producer prices today, the first in a slew of data this week that will give clues about its growth.

“The China data will provide us with an update with what’s happening as people just want to see that there’s some traction in the economy at this stage,” Tony Farnham, an analyst in Sydney at Patersons Securities Ltd., said by phone. “The authorities are mindful of the slowdown in demand and will continue to address that.”

Japan’s Topix index gained 0.5 percent as the yen slid 0.2 percent to 121.44 per dollar. South Korea’s Kospi index also climbed 0.5 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.2 percent, while New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index was little changed.

Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index were little changed in most recent trading. Cash markets in Hong Kong and China are yet to open.

Futures on the S&P 500 slid 0.1 percent. U.S. equities entered the seventh year of a bull run Monday, with the S&P 500’s advance paring the biggest drop in two months on Friday. The S&P 500 has gained just 1 percent this year, the third-worst performer of 24 developed markets tracked by Bloomberg.

European finance ministers piled pressure on Greece to open its books and follow through with pledges agreed to in its rescue package, as the country tries to avoid running out of cash as soon as this month. Greece will resume talks with its creditors in Brussels on Wednesday, alongside technical talks in Athens to comb through data. [Ref]

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

Still hovering around the 6860 level and if this breaks then a dip down to the bottom of the 20 day raff at 6835 is most likely. 6858 has now set itself as the bottom of the 10 day Bianca channel, but as yesterday showed the bulls failed to pull away from this level with any conviction, leading to a bit of a consolidation day. Below 6835 we have 6805 as support and also a possible bounce point as 6800 has looked to be support while we were rising towards 7000. Todays pivot is 6882 so initial resistance there, and setting up a tight range for first thing. To make things bullish again the bulls will need the price above 6935, but resistance at 6902 (200ema on 30min) stands in their way. As mentioned yesterday I am more inclined to short the rallies at the moment, at least till we have tested the 6830 area. Tricky trading at the moment as its hard to get a decent runner – short sharp trades seem to be working better during this choppy period. The S&P played to the plan better yesterday with the rise to the 2079 pivot then a dip back.

159 Comments

        1. they take 2 points off, and when I was holding my losing short last year they were taking dividends sometimes up to 16 points 2-3 times a week, some weeks less than others, but I had no warning about it. It puts me off holding overnight. Unless I find June or anything like this but I cannot do long term on my account at the moment.

      2. You see, I never dealt with big moves like that. I feel more comfortable with moves for 100 pips or so. I maybe predicted what’s gonna happen. But can you imagine if it went another 50 points up just to annoy me in the morning? I would say my account bye bye. I had to do what was best for my account and my sleep of course. Plus I’m fighting with fear issues at the moment, need to get it in balance again.

  2. Good morning, nice to see the sun.
    So, 68 to 52 to 68 to 60, does that count as a break of 60 support? 32 next stop?

      1. Why? Senu, what’s gone is gone, there’s no point to beat yourself about it. There will be other opportunities.

          1. It makes some sense, if I am waiting for some higher price to short, it needs to get there first by a long. 🙂 The problem with these longs – they are more risky and may fail several times at supports.

  8. Task today: if it gets to 17938 (oh, that would be the best wish sort of), realistically possibly 17920 then yes, it would be nice to see short there. But US is so unpredictably, yesterday they did long long and long. But worth trying if resistances hold.

      1. Hi Jack,

        I don’t think we will get to see 920. I had three trades from yesterday but didn’t stick to my plan still good profit probably could have had more.
        1st trade Dow long 17843 – SL 15 – TP 17900 – done.
        2nd trade Dow 18024.5 – SL 10 point – Plan was to leave it running at b/e but closed it last night for 26 points profit.
        3rd trade Dax this morning 11558 – SL 16 points just wanted to leave it running but closed it for 50 points profit.
        No positions at the moment. I see the indices dropping more but where do I get in that’s why it is important to hold your position and I keep learning.

        1. Oh should have been stopped out. As Jack mentioned, you will get opportunities don’t rush back into the market.

    2. No mate, stopped out long ago.
      I’m out for the time being, my system doesn’t like trending days. Look at that chart, hardly a buyer in sight. I’ve missed the boat to short with any justification, with hindsight 50 breaking was a big sign.

  13. Anyone reckon this the start of a 10% ftse correction? Missed my chance to ride it down. Looking for the bottom to ride back up.

    1. MY SHORT £6 A POINT GOT STOPPED OUT LAST NIGHT @6883 IM ABSOLUTELY FUMING. THINK THE HIGH WAS 84. JUST SOMES MY LUCK UP

  14. Gave away yesterday’s gain. By the way, I had a stop loss 20 points away from 6800, my long position which I then removed. But they closed it at 6775 automatically. Are they allowed to do that? I had enough balance in my account to cover three times the stop loss.

    1. They also closed my stock for a two point loss. Are they allowed to do that? Yes I could have put a stop loss on myself but two points is very narrow and I could easily have managed it myself.

      2. I get the feeling there are some guys from the spread betting firm your account is with who constantly overlook their clients’ accounts, and when opportunity arises, they close out open positions for losses. What if I had a short at 6900 hoping ride down to 6800 for a 100 point gain. Would they close my position to limit my gain? I am beginning to think spread betting is stacked against you. Not only is it risky but there are guys behind the scene that are trying to make it as hard as possible for you. Your loss is their gain. Is is this the way it is or am I reading too much into this?

          1. I am with City Index. Actually now checking through my emails now I did get a message warning margins had fallen below 100% and that when it falls below 80%, open positions would close. But can I get a thing right here. If I open a position and have the funds to cover a stop loss, then margins shouldn’t matter, right?

        2. Stupid of me. I did get a warning via email (just checked now) .when margins fell below 100%, and that when it falls below 80% that some or all of the open positions will close out. But was it necessary to close out the stock? I could understand FTSE was closed out, but once that was closed out, the margin would have been significantly higher than 100%.

          1. I would appreciate some input on this please. Let’s say I have three open positions, one a FTSE and two open positions in stocks and in each case I have a stop loss with funds to cover them, why then would margins matter?

          2. I can’t speak for City Index’s approach, but basically it seems that you are over trading relative to the size of the deposit of yours that they are holding.

          3. You are most likely right.

            Day trading is not for me. It’s a roller coaster of emotion. Luckily, I work from him with very flexible hours but have noticed I get so emotionally tied in the few days I have been doing this. It also results in watching prices on the screen for far longer than I would like, that’s despite trading with small stakes. Day trading requires a full time approach, something I could never dedicate. I still think I will make money on this but only by entering positions with extremely high odds. In my case I think swing trading is much better suited. This way I can watch prices end of day as opposed to being glued, and not have to ride the wave of emotions. If I do this for three years I would probably age 10 years.

        3. Oh, I was using CityIndex with their old charting. I wasn’t happy with their closing positions not at stop loss but at the next available price. Plus I didn’t like that at most volatile time it constantly froze. And then started working when you don’t need them anymore.
          I never had problems with margins on CityIndex, and they didn’t close positions based on that. They never closed positions just to cut my winnings or losses if I had enough margin.

          1. I meant to say luckily I work from home. Are you saying they did not close out positions even if the margin level was under 80%. I think the positions get closed out on auto. You are right about price freezing at times during periods of volatility.

        4. Sounds like you are margined up to the eyeballs. You need to leave plently of money in your account to cover your open positions. It’s up to you to keep a handle on this, not the spreadbet company.

          For IG there’s a slippage factor, which is greater than the stop loss, just in case the market gaps. City Index will have something similar, I’d check the terms of your account, give them a call and deposit more funds!

          1. At least I can put it down as lesson learned. I will now make sure to have enough money in the account to cover potential losses on open trades. By the way, would you guys suggest IG is the best of the lot in terms of being straight with their clients?

    2. You are on a GREED side, you need to get a little bit more FEAR. So you would protect some winnings.

      1. I’ve already noticed overtrading will be a problem with me. I should have been patient for a better situation to arise after making a bit of profit yesterday. If not careful, you can give up as quickly as you gain, and more.

  15. Todays fall is due to interest RATE rise gaining momentum. There is an opportunity to go long right now and get back 30 or so points on the FTSE

        1. I do go long Dan, but not on the FTSE when its at all time high, with an election 2 months away. Could not believe that there were individuals on this forum suggesting it. No wonder they lose large amounts of money.

  16. Trending days = when you think you’ve missed the boat, you realise after a short while you had not missed the boat but now surely you’ve missed the boat…or have you?

    2. Exactly. I’ve been waiting to sell the rally that never came for the last hour. 🙁
      Rally is on its way, BUYBUYBUY, FTSE 3min just posted 3 up candles for the first time in 90 points lol.

      Paging Nick: we’ve run out of your support levels already today mate, what’s next stop?

      1. Not sure his support levels are of any use. 6760 on FTSE will not break easily. Ftse should rise to 6800 in the short time. Then a very slow ascent to 6830 ish and then its anyones call over the next few days. If you want to go long enter the DAX arena

        1. Yes, that bounce to 6800 was nailed on really..let’s see how 60 copes second time round.
          Could be a fun afternoon for a change.

          1. Well I got that wrong. Apparently Carney has said this afternoon that there will be no loosening of monetary policy.

  17. RJ says:
    March 10, 2015 at 11:19 am

    OH, RJ, I was completely and utterly distracted today. So price was gone.
    Most important is mindset, if you are ready to risk or not. Holding is one of the things which involve risk – where you risk your stop loss or even running profits, it’s responsibility.
    I struggle with 2 things: holding and opening stop losses. If I started getting better with Sl, but holding and winning back still get’s on the way.
    I discovered that I can do more or less OK entries which if held could go into profit. Which is a good sign, at least I justify my entries, it’s good.
    Holding is the side of emotions.
    On a webinar I watched a man said: before you enter the trade you are calm, you are rational, but after you enter the trade – the second half of the trade begins: emotional – typical feelings: fear, greed, indecisiveness, hope and panic. He said: even the time concentrates, you spent 5 min in a trade but it feels like it was 40 min. Basically we need to train ourselves to do some automatic actions that all emotional part was getting closer or was 0. And to achieve it by comfort of your account.
    My account doesn’t give me comfort atm.
    If I held this trade short 18026, stop loss theoretically should be 18160 before bed time, of course I didn’t have such one, I had 50 points. 134 points stop loss is correct as it’s at the next resistance level but it’s not for me. However the reward would be expected 268 which is 17758 (which was nearly there today). Since morning there were several set ups with smaller stops loss.

  18. Senu, 6882 didn’t cross yesterday, that was FTSE’s mirror resistance. I was worried it would break up and bring Dow higher. But it didn’t.

        1. Had a few positions above 6900 since last week and yesterday one at 6880 and this afternoon one more at 6796.

          Also had few in SPX from last few weeks. DOW time and again stopped me at b/e or i closed too early. But otherwise, all in green and P/L in 4 digit profit 🙂

    2. I did Senu, got in at 6876 last night whilst the footy was on. Held on overnight and closed at 6762 at lunchtime today.

        1. Hi Sam — Not sure what your situation is. All I can say at the moment is that the FTSE is making good progress ⇒ < 6720.

          1. thanks Jim, am heavily short from 6900+ area. Looking for sub 6700 to close my positions. I had 6796 as support after that straight to 6760 then 6658.

  24. Only went out for a couple of hours – no phone signal so could not check, came back to -£1610 stop outs! doh

  26. ATM – I don’t think I’d look for “Support” Areas in FTSE but look instead perhaps at the USD $
    IG – US DOLLAR BASKET (MAR-15) – or SAXO – USINDEXMAR15
    – This continues to move …..higher

  27. Had -10 and +10 trade, second could be closed +60. Long 17761 or something -10, and long 17751.5 – should have been held second. Holding is my enemy. it did 20 points and started wobbling and I closed +10 cos I thought, that must be it so at least I will get my 10 points back (winning back thing). But why if you are (price) planning to go 70 points? Just spook me out. FTSE was more stable on that long opp.
    I am absolutely not in a tradable mood today, scared of any entry.

    2. Goodness, Germany Dax surprised me to bits. While other markets crashing it happily goes up. Weird.

    1. Didn’t expect to see 66 as the first two numbers today, but there it is….6694.
      Uptrend line smashed to pieces, but I’d risk a long from here if I was that sort of trader, target 6760 resistance and see what happens from there.
      That doesn’t allow for a DOW meltdown tonight, of course.

  32. Massive reaction to todays events. Now the bears have had their fill, wouldn’t be surprised to see FTSE climb back strongly over the next 3 days towards 6900. Whenever there is a knee jerk day like today, common sense prevails and it has a habit of going back from where it came.

    1. No further downwards action then Argyle? or can you see another blip before the slow climb?

    1. Learn from it Roger, next time play smaller. I am in the same boat, had 6k in account yesterday – fortunately I took 3k out this morning but the rest is all but gone. Easy come easy go ……………..

      1. I expect there were lots of people here using good money management who didn’t lose a penny?

    1. I do rate Argyle’s advice, but have your stops in place – his last two trades haven’t worked (long on Friday evening for above 6900) and long at 6760 for back above 6800. However his short for 6800 was spot on (even though it took several days to play out.) A retrace is possible/probable – I’m just wary of the early morning flush the stops out. I think a narrow range day might be on the cards tomorrow to digest the drop, unless the waterfall decides to keep on going.

  36. Have to see how tomorrow goes – if we do get a retrace back up tomorrow that could be a good opportunity to add some more shorts. I think it’s very unlikely that we have seen ‘the’ bottom. Whenever there’s a strong down day it takes a while to slow the downward momentum so it’s ready to reverse back up. The first bounce can usually be sold. At this rate I wouldn’t rule out 6250-6300 before it goes back up. The alternative scenario is if 6600 holds then can’t rule out a much enlarged ending diagonal where we could shoot back up towards 6900-7000. I’m slightly favouring 6250-300 but it will depend on how the next 3 days play out.

    1. Yes maybe Zigzagger, however I kind of think from his posts, that he knows more than he lets on. Even when wrong this afternoon he admits it and corrects it. I think he is on the ball.

  37. Blimey. 5 minutes later and I’ve made 10 points. Took the £50. Thanks Argyle. Keep us informed of your thoughts.

      1. No still on the trade. Dow falling FTSE rising. Looks like Argyle knows the business.

  38. NewTrader says:
    March 10, 2015 at 2:40 pm
    I meant to say luckily I work from home. Are you saying they did not close out positions even if the margin level was under 80%.

    I remembered on CityIndex they closed couple of times, let’s say I had £100 and was losing £70 or something like that. they would close that position. on spredex they went beyond my deposit and closed -£20 (I didn’t have stop), so it didn’t stop on 0, but it didn’t stop on +£30 either.

  45. Made my money today, albeit still running a loss on that DAX. Tomorrow will see some respite but with all the buyers flooding in I wouldn`t go long too early, especially if DAX starts to tumble.

  46. 80+ points on my DOW trade but I’m going to let it run long term because I think it could go down to around 16800

  48. I wonder how Nick spotted that long at 6699. Any reason for that? Or just round number? Good 20 points it went.

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