Support 6947, 6931, 6915, 6895, 6864 Resistance 6969, 6979, 6995, 7007

Good morning. Well that initial rise just kept going and going yesterday, and the short got stopped out quite quickly. Markets were fairly buoyant with the ECB press conference though its now all eyes on NFP later at 13:30. Asia has stayed fairly flat overnight and the S&P hovered around 2100 for most of yesterday – neither really following the rise on the Europeans. We didn’t have too much of a drop off the 10 day Raff so I have closed that short for a small gain, if it was going to drop it would have done it sooner. Probably get a fairly upbeat day I expect, though the Dax 30minute chart could be on the cusp of changing to bearish….

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
(Bloomberg) — Asian stocks rose while the dollar held gains, with a gauge measuring the U.S. currency against major peers headed for its biggest weekly advance since January, before data on the U.S. jobs market. Oil in New York climbed.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.7 percent by 2:23 p.m. in Tokyo, paring its first drop in five weeks. Japan’s Topix index is heading for a more-than seven-year high. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures were little changed after the gauge rose for the first time in three days. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 1 percent this week, with the greenback near an 11-year high to the euro. U.S. oil has gained 2.6 percent this week.

A gauge of global equities is less than 1 percent from an intraday record struck Feb. 26 after the European Central Bank clarified a plan for buying 60 billion euro ($66 billion) of assets a month from Monday. Friday’s payrolls report may offer clues to the timing of U.S. rate increases, after new claims for jobless benefits rose to a nine-month high. Diverging outlooks of the U.S. and other countries have seen the dollar rise against most global peers this year.

“The euro’s sharp plunge is elevating the dollar,” Takeru Kurokawa, an analyst in Tokyo at Ueda Harlow Ltd., which provides margin-trading services, wrote in a note to clients. “Payrolls within expectations should be dollar supportive.”

Bond Buying
The euro was little changed at $1.1027 after touching $1.0988 Thursday, its weakest intraday level since September 2003. The currency is headed for a weekly loss of 1.5 percent, also its third straight retreat. European stocks surged Thursday, with Germany’s DAX Index climbing to a record.

The ECB will buy assets “in any case until we see a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation” toward the bank’s aim, Draghi told reporters on Thursday. The purchases will include securities with negative yields up to the bank’s deposit rate of minus 0.2 percent.

ECB officials also revised higher projections for economic growth, partly due to a drop in oil prices, and expect gross domestic product to expand 1.5 percent this year, 1.9 percent in 2016 and 2.1 percent in 2017.

The Topix rose 0.8 percent toward its highest close since December 2007. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average jumped 0.9 percent to an almost 15-year high as Uny Group Holdings Co. climbed 4.6 percent after FamilyMart Co., Japan’s third-largest convenience store operator, said it’s in talks with the department store chain about a possible merger.

Asian Stocks
The Kospi index in Seoul gained 0.7 percent while New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index rose 0.8 percent after reaching a record earlier in the week. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index was little changed.

The Australian dollar strengthened 0.3 percent to 78.03 U.S. cents and is little changed for the week. The Australian dollar was about 2 percent overvalued last month and could still be considered too high, according to Reserve Bank of Australia documents. The RBA said that 39 of 75 central banks examined had either publicly declared or appeared to hold Australian dollars in their reserves, up from 34 two years ago, according to a separate draft document from February.

China Outlook
The Hang Seng Index fluctuated in Hong Kong and a gauge of Chinese companies listed in the city added 0.2 percent after sinking more than 5 percent in the previous three trading days.

China’s yuan was little changed at 6.2647 to the greenback today. The People’s Bank of China has weakened the currency’s reference rate versus the dollar for the last four weeks in a row, the longest streak since May. The central bank cut interest rates for the second time in three months last weekend.

The 2015 growth goal for Asia’s largest economy was set at about 7 percent on Thursday, down from last year’s target of about 7.5 percent. Data due Sunday may show exports swung back to growth in February, while imports dropped for a fourth straight month, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Snowfall in parts of the U.S. may have caused some workers to have been temporarily dismissed, leading to the increase in unemployment claim filings for last week. Friday’s jobs data may show employers added 235,000 workers to nonfarm payrolls in February, while the unemployment rate is expected to drop to 5.6 percent, matching a more than six-year low.

Yen Weakness
The Fed has said it will remain patient when it comes to boosting borrowing costs, even as the economy shows signs of improvement. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback against 10 major peers, was little changed. The yen added 0.1 percent to 120.02 per dollar, headed for a third straight weekly drop.

Gold was little changed at $1,198.59 an ounce today, heading for its fifth decline in six weeks. A measure of 30-day historic volatility in the U.S. dollar-denominated spot price has fallen to the lowest since November. While it’s up just 1.3 percent in dollar terms this year, the yellow metal has risen 11 percent in euros, 6 percent in Australian dollars and 2.3 percent when priced in China’s yuan.

West Texas Intermediate crude added 0.6 percent to $51.08 a barrel after sliding 1.5 percent on Thursday. While WTI is up this week, Brent crude has lost 2.6 percent. The benchmark for more than half the world’s oil was 0.8 percent higher at $60.95 in London today. [Ref]

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

Todays pivot is 6947 so I expect we may get some initial support there, especially as we didn’t get too much bearishness off the 6970 Raff channel yesterday. That said, the 30minute chart has certainly weakened a bit, with the EMAs brewing for a cross (and also on the Dax too), so if it broke the pivot then 6931 (200ema) would be the next level to watch. Support below here is 6895 and 6864, the most recent low. Resistance is 6969 initially, and there are a cluster of PRT resistance lines on the 30minute chart there, with the 10 day Bianca at 6979 – so might be a spot to reload a short for any dip to 6931. Above 6979 we have 6995 and 7007 as the next levels to watch. Obviously its NFP Friday so a little bit of caution is advisable. The 10 day Raff has widened now, with resistance at the 7001 and support at 6860 – worth small trades off these levels if seen though they are not in the trade plan below.

181 Comments

  3. Dow seems to me to be developing a bit of negative tilt; e.g., 1-hr. chart. NFP aside, could be heading for around 18000. (On latter timeframe, ROC just turned negative.)

    1. DOW is tricky since yesterday jim, am watching 18156 and 18056. Though 18056 broke on wednesday but bounced. I hope either one of them will give way today

    1. Stay away from gold today or until at least NPF 🙂 Am expecting a sharp drop at NFP to sub 1900, lets see. I can see during US sessions gold being pushed below 1200 and Asians session pulling up over 1200, hard to predict really.

      1. 1 hour looks like it’s going to break up, it’s near a sloping trend line and it’s been 61.8% retrace. If the wobble doesn’t go below 18087 so why not can it break up?
        I don’t say it will be like that. It’s just an opinion. I know it’s a range now, it can break either up or down. I would not trade until it broke.

        1. Surely you cannot expect a massive drop instead. All markets are very bullish, Dow needs to catch up.

  6. How do you find stocks to spread bet? I have familiarised myself with a few stocks by watching their share price and charts for some while now but the problem is any significant moves take months to materialise, making money making opportunities slow and laborious, but at the same time they are much less risky than highly volatile stocks. Is it worth spread betting a stock that has been rangebound between 200p and 240p for many months. For example, the stock is now approaching the support and I am thinking about going long. Is it worth betting £10 a point? How far away should the stop loss be? By the way, is there danger of signficant gapping owing to technical error that takes out the stop loss, bearing in mind this stock is not volatile at all? I am new to all this so my stake will be pretty small.

    It is possible to make money from spread betting only betting when the odds are extremely high (you still have the protection of a stop loss in case it goes wrong) but these opportunities are few and take ages (weeks and months) to pan out.

    1. I like to buy coming out of a dip so long as there’s a strong background trend — e.g., have a look at BLND which I bought the other day.

        1. What time frame do you look at when you guys study charts in trying to predict price direction over shorter time span (days and weeks). You mention SAFE and when I look at it I can see that it has a nice head and shoulders pattern formation emerging on a relatively short term graph (6 month-year) but if you look at its 5 year or all time chart then it just seems to be on an upward channel, a continuation of it. So if you were to play this stock, would you opt for a longer term bet for it to continue, or would you play for a short term drop?

          It’s the same with FTSE 100, on a longer term chart there seems to be quite clear resistance and support but over a short period any resistance and support formed in the last few months would be weaker than those formed on a long term chart, right? Isn’t it a mug’s game trying to predict short term movement of indices given how volatile they are? I see from comments here people often using stop losses of 30 points on FTSE 100, which could be wiped out in matter of minutes.

          I am new to this so apologise if I come across sounding a little stupid.

      2. Just looked at the stock, would you really say that was a dip? But I do like the the fact that it seems to be on quite a predictable upward curve, so it might be a good long term play going long.

    2. I know one guy who specialises in spread betting stocks, but his is Russian. His system is easy, he finds stocks which accumulate volume and are about to break the range.
      Darren, lol.

    3. As my granny used to say, you can’t have your cake and eat it.
      Spread betting is (hopefully informed) gambling and high risk/return, that’s why it exists.
      If you think a moribund stock is a long term investment, then just buy shares.
      You’ve got to ask yourself what you want from getting involved and how much time and money are you prepared to allocate to it.
      The idea you can log in from your phone, press a few buttons and smile all the way to the bank is encouraged by the industry, who are just looking for a percentage of the money that 80% of private traders end up losing.
      You’ve also got to know yourself, your character weaknesses and strengths will be tested to the max.

      As she also used to say, if it was easy everyone would be doing it.
      Good Luck.

  7. New Trader………as regards Gapping I’ve never had it occur in any significant way to my detriment trading since 2007……. It can happen obviously but personally not something I would be worried about.
    Use stops and dont move them !! Once you start wavering it WILL catch you out one day big style and empty the account. Its not probable its a certainty nailed on

    1. What market were you on? After such a loss why did you rush into a new decision? I had a 1000 point loss with all the charges and I didn’t rush into the opposite direction, yes it gone another 300 points and turned for a long retrace. I see you got into an emotional trade, or trade revenge.

          2. Hi Jack2,

            225 is Japan. how you getting on..couldn’t post last two days. I had a few trades made some profit on the Dax and Dow. No positions currently. I guess will wait for NFP.

          3. No, I was short on the Nikkei from 18400, then I added to it at 18600 and 18800 and woke up to see I’d been stopped out at 19030. As usual, it rose just enough to wipe me out and then started falling… same old!

          4. Thanks RJ, I never traded Japan.
            I am OK, gathering my forces for next week. Couple of good webinars came up about phycology and why I cannot hold, that’s exactly what I needed. I like how that guy explained why people hold on to big losses, it’s like stages going deeper and deeper. At the end you loses your sleep.
            So, if you don’t mind, an anecdote about it. A man with a big loss tells his friend:
            – I sleep like a baby.
            – How’s that?
            – I wake up every 30 min and s.. myself.
            Lol

      1. I just find it bizarre people dont……..I guess they have to learn the hard way and then realise

  10. Slow today isn’t it?

    Who’s brave enough to go big one way or another now?

    Show your cards gents 🙂

    1. I’m long on FTSE, today is the day it will shoot through 7000 and make me a happy man. £50/point long from 6950.

      1. £50 long on a NFP day…….??? You’ve got a huge account to be able to place that for sure, without concern. Fair play to you indeed

      2. Very brave. I’m waiting until the figures are out and then trading. The market is just treading water now.

    2. I like these slow bits, my boring little rsi system has done this so far today: +@46, –@60, ++@46, -@52 and out.
      With absolutely no logic behind it, I see a stab at the highs and a sharp drop.

    2. And they got stopped out lol.
      That takes a special kind of software to miss a 2.5 point trade and lose 15.

    1. It’s in Russian on Youtube. Good teachers though in Russia. After watching English speaking webinars where everything sounds the same I prefer Russian webinars, every teacher has got his jokes, opinion and makes it worth while. I wish it was available in English.

      1. Mark Douglas speaks the best about psychology of trading in English. But I am sure you know it.

  13. Hello Guys,

    Just wanted to ask this to all of you. Are you all being really profitable consistently and are you meeting your goals what you set out when you started to trade ? I would appreciate your honest answers.
    I have been trading for last 3 years and following Nick’s website for 2.5 yrs. I was profitable only for the first 6 months then threw everything away did all the mistake that you could find on all the trading books. Still trying to claw back my losses. Since then it has been very difficult especially with the painful experiences. I have a few winning streaks and then lose everything back and more.

    1. RJ, I hope somebody replies. As to me, let’s go to a memory lane on NFP day, started in 2000 Sept and I am in a loss since then. If you want to know the number it’s about 5 grand, of course it wasn’t 1 grand per year, it’s escalated at the end of 2014: Christmas Rally on Dow. I started looking for other ways to handle my emotions which I think the main reason why my trades fail and developing step by step guide on what I am doing.
      Do I still believe that I can make money in this industry? I will answer to you that at one point you need to look back on your experience and decide what’s more important in life. Do you still want to continue and why, and what your goals and ambitions realistically are. Hobby, punt or you still willing to fight and overcome difficulties and become more like a professional trader who trades automatically controlling his emotions and follows his discipline?
      If your problem is opening stop losses now and then – tackle that, throw all your energy on it, start believing in it, attack those who tell otherwise, write diaries, read articles etc. Write notes with things like one of mine (less personal): Don’t lose your freedom, take stop losses. etc.
      And start doing it. Write a log on each trade (I know it’s difficult to do). You have to, kind of, break yourself. I started writing what I am doing during a trade and give myself a WRITTEN ORDERS on what to do. For example I said: you will only close if the price does that or that… etc.
      When you set your stop loss, I know you suppose to forget about it. But you can’t. Basically you need to say to yourself, it’s only a stop loss and you are not allowed to drag it or remove. It’s like a RED traffic light. Everything below your b/e to stop loss is YELLOW LIGHT (so it might turn), below stop loss if RED Light, and GREEN is above b/e. Do you stop at RED traffic lights or your continue driving? In your mind you do not allow yourself even think about that, because – it’s dangerous.
      It’s the same about stop loss. It says here: stop loss is not a loss but limit of your loss which COULD BE AFTER IT.
      Basically what I wanted to say. You need to think why you are doing it and what is your problems and do you still want to do it this way or you want to change? Does it mean you reduce your stake, or decide a different strategy but something has to change.
      And answering the question: Do I still believe that I can make money in this industry? Yes, I do.
      It is like on my favourite poster: Have you got a Dream? Run to it. It’s not happening. Walk to it. Still not happening? Crawl to it. Cannot do it? Lay down and position yourself towards your dream.

      2. Hearing your story kind of puts me off. I am not sure if its worth it. I don’t want to throw money away. I hear experiences of so many people who say they started out well only to lose the account they built up. That’s seems to be the overriding theme among spread betters. Also, how many people spread bet in this country. IG supposedly has 125,00 active account holders globally and not all of them will be spread betters, but considering IG has easily the largest spread better clientele, it is unlikely there is a huge appetite for spread betting financial instruments. Is this a good thing?

      1. One thing about pre NFP is quick stop hunting gyrations. Personally I’d get out now around b/e and wait to see what happens after the dust settles.

  15. Morning chaps – I haven’t been on this board for what seems “ages” but it’s good to see a few familiar names. Senu – Jack – Jim..and some new ones – “hi”.
    Just reading some of the posts.
    New Trader
    I’d forget about individual stocks – use ETFs instead e.g Vanguard FTSE 100 – Ishares.
    It’s just that if your “trading” it’s either got to be FX or Indicies.
    RJ
    Are you trading full time ?? Are you using a system or looking for a pattern?
    The great thing about getting it wrong is that you learn valuable lessons that are sometimes difficult to learn any other way.
    Put some more info up about what went wrong and what you’re doing now.
    I’d happily suggest something that may give you some ideas.

    1. Hi Hugh,

      Good to have you back. I don’t trade full time. I’m not there yet. I have a full time job. I don’t use a system. I trade based on price action. I have good winning streaks and then I kind of self-destruct lose all the winnings plus more.
      I have learnt a few hard lessons which helps but still don’t see myself profitable “CONSISTENTLY”.
      I have realized its not system or strategy that’s important to making money over longer term. Its DISCIPLINE that matters most which I lack the most. In the past three years, I have done myself good amount of damage.
      Lessons learnt from my personal experience which I’m starting to practice.
      1) It’s addictive – The less I do more profitable I’m.
      2) I had a lot of patience when I started. But now I lack patience after those loses.
      3) I always shorted the market when I started. I have changed that attitude now. Most of losses came from not acknowledging the fact that the markets can go any higher or any lower.
      4) I’m not focusing on how much money I can make these days when I put the trade rather just the process and the feelings I go through.
      I’m starting to think if its worth an effort to spend time, energy and money in this activity or rather just concentrate on something else and that is also the reason I ask about experiences in this forum. But why I keep doing it, I’m determined to become a successful trader.

      1. Hi RJ
        I’ve got to go out but I’ll be back around this afternoon or early evening and will post some suggestions.

    2. Thanks for the info. I agree you can’t really trade betting on stocks so FTSE 100 will also be in my armoury. It’s just that stocks will be less stomach-churning because the daily and intra day movements are much easier to absorb and won’t lead to massive wins/losses (unless the stake is high). You can also react more easily on news, chart formations. I don’t have any unrealistic goals as far as this is concerned. I am not looking to make millions here, just a nice little side income, say £300-400 a month, will be great.

  17. I’m sticking my neck on the line and predicting a big jump after the NFP numbers. If it gets on a role I can see 7000 before close (maybe not at close though)

    I’ve gone long at 6945 with a stop at 6910.

    Cheers all

    (PS don’t listen to me i’m a numpty 🙂 )

  18. It should drop to 6932 ideally for a long. I see that level. And it possibly will. On Dow 112 is holding atm but break to 18087 is welcome and if that holds, long may develop.

          1. When? Do you mean yesterday at 13.30? That’s the idea, it didn’t bounce of it today though. 13.30 is quite scary it may just pop up there straight away, you never know what’s going on.

  20. The expectation is that Non-farm Payrolls will fall slightly to 240,000 from last month’s 257,000

    IF THIS TURNS OUT TO BE TRUE FTSE SHOULD COME OFF RIGHT???

    1. Not necessarily, falling NFP could signal a step away from an interest rate hike – markets likey

      Or it could signal that growth is slowing – markets no likey

      Or it could result in people pulling out of US markets into euro/uk markets – ftse likey

      someone pleaee correct me if that is jibberish 🙂

      1. SO ITS TWO TO 1 AGAINST ME THEN!!! FCK IT STAYING SHORT HAD A BAD WEEK AND PROBABLY GONNA GET WORSE

  21. Hi guys anyone use IGs MT4 platform and does the charts give you real time exchange data or just IGs algo indicative pro real time?

  24. The amount of times everything has flown up into space after NFP… Today when I’m long for a change, nothing is happening. Grrr.

  28. Goodness me, had a long order 18090 with 30 points stop, it’s gone after I came back. I could not monitor it. A bit upset.

        1. Just got 28 points back. long 18043.5 to just closed 18073 aimed for but managed 71.5 Limit was on 18075 but I just decided to close when it was 18073, 50% retrace.

  29. Hi Sam — Dow has already clipped below 18000 although currently just above. On daily timeframe, ROCnRoll indicator not yet red but other ROC indicator falling below zero, so negative momentum is developing. I think good for -200 points at least — just my own view right now.

  30. That was a rubbish reaction to good NFP numbers, wasn’t it?
    Both FTSE and DOW trying to rally, don’t look very convincing. Interesting 6 hours coming up.

    Long at 6925, see if the bounce gets to 40.

      1. I’ve had a couple of nasty experiences with the DAX so don’t trade it, only FTSE and DOW (and Bitcoin for fun).
        Shorting DAX anytime in the next year would be as dangerous as shorting the DOW was in the early part of the US QE imo.
        It probably won’t work in the long term, fundamental Euro problems haven’t changed, but where’s the point in being right and skint?

  33. What can I say, I don’t know what was the reason but NFP was bearish after all. Drop to 17996 I didn’t expect at all. I thought it might go as far at 18077, but decided to place a 2:1 order at 18090 thinking 18087 will hold. This long I just took was made on retrace purposes and was a cold blooded decision. 61.8% is 18096 but I was aiming for 50% 18077 which would give me 30 points, which is what I needed really, or anything around that. SL 17996, so that was actually not a great r:r, 50 lose:30 win. Well, but I needed to act as retrace was at the starting point.
    Well, I don’t think we will see 18240 today.

  34. Senu, you said Payrolls massive, doesn’t it mean it was going to go UP? Why going down?

    1. Good for economy. But interet rate will go up sooner than expected. So they money to Germany.

          1. FTSE is hardly being ‘pumped’ or if it is it’s got a hole in it somewhere haha

  37. I put in an order yesterday afternoon for a sell at 6970 FTSE, it didn’t get filled thus far. We are only talking about £1/point. Just starting out so let’s see how things go. I’ve put in place a substantial stop loss (not sure if thats the correct thing to do) but my logic is that 6970 to 7000 area will resist very strongly, from a historical perspective at least. 7000 is such a psychological barrier.

    1. Good luck, mate, maybe a while till that order gets filled by the look of things at the moment.
      What do you mean by “a substantial stop loss”?

      1. Damn. I had considered moving the sell order to 7960 soon after I placed the order. It would have been filled yesterday and would now be sitting on some profit.

        Anyway, what I meant by a substantial stop loss is that I placed it some 100 points away. Is this strategy a wrong one? Should I have tighter stop losses? I know the idea is to have a profit potential on trades much larger than potential loss but I didn’t want to risk having it 7000 or slightly above for fear of it being breached.

  39. Certainly gone a little wild…….NFP up but Dow down 1% unusual to say the least…..??
    Sterling getting absolutely Mullered all pointing to rate rise in the States shortly

        2. Why did you even go short, you’ve just had a loss of 600 points. Now sure what you are doing. You seem to be so easy about it. Losing 600 there, losing £44 pp here. Not sure what strategy you are playing at. But you need to revaluate.

  42. Why are so many people suprised about NFP up dow down …. Simple more chance of a interest rate hike from America also stronger dollar hurts there export and remember america is still the biggest exporter in the world.

    1. Could see it having a sniff at 18000 again Darren, but wouldn’t trust it.
      Not my problem: had a good week, promise of volatility next week, so screens off now and out for a weekend motorbike riding.
      Good Luck all.

  46. Cannot believe I took 28 points on long today on those the only long candles in this fall since 13.30. I should have reverted myself and my mind.
    But took children to Mcdonalds, came back and here we go, 150 points lower than I’d seen before 3.30. I’m looking at it and thinking – I couldn’t see it coming.
    Plus, what can I say, Nick’s arrows are discouraging today. Everybody trying to pick up some long looking at the pathetic long arrow at the end and losing more money. Sometimes I think, what’s the point in those arrows.
    Now I see my long prediction was also crap. Bullishness you see. Everything was much more simple: narrow range, which I said – which way it breaks, that way it goes. But I thought it would break up after bounce on one of those levels.

    1. It was actually bouncing off the sealing: 18162. Well, I was thinking the opposite so didn’t notice that.

  51. I recorded 1 min chart moving from 13.30-14.35 on screen. I’m going to watch and see if I would have taken a short if I was here. It’s also good to rewind it sometimes. Gives you clues. Good weekend too everybody.

  55. For fun only – Intermediate term forecast up to the election. NB This won’t happen in a straight line and trade it at your peril. This is just something I’m looking at based on fibs, support levels and retracement levels. Next drop to 6775. Bounce from there. Next drop to 6715. Bounce from there to form a right shoulder. Drop to 6575 – brief bounce before ultimate drop to 6450 around election day (7 May). 6450 also happens to be 61.8% of the Dec low to Feb high (and would also be the potential head and shoulder pattern target). Oh and I don’t think we’ll see 7000 before the election. Now if only it were really to happen like that …. I can dream.

  61. Been cursing myself this evening. had a short on FTSE at 1330 today, got a bit antsy with the long talk floating about. Saw a bit of volatility at NFP time, closed it for B/E because I didn’t want the stress of it while at my kids school for this afternoon. Then checked the level later and could of had 50 pips. Arrrrghhhhhh. That has taught me loads.

  62. Do you guys lock in profits using limit orders or allow profits to run? Also, aren’t stop losses of 20 or 30 points on the Dow extremely narrow? The Dow can move that much in a matter of seconds even during lacklustre periods.

    I missed out on selling FTSE at 6970 (didn’t get filled, just), decided to cancel the order, feeling missed out decided to buy the Dow just a while ago at 17860 (got filled). Hoping it will bounce back to 18000, and then back above to around 18200-18300. I know this goes against the need for discipline (trading right after filling missed out) but I feel we could get back to around 18000.

    1. Hmmm not sure Dow will be back above 18000 for a few years to be direct. Euro indices if you are looking for longs.

      1. Sarcasm? If the Dow doesn’t see over 18000 anytime soon it will make it extremely unlikely FTSE will break 7000.

        1. No, the value of the $ and the likelihood of US rate rises makes investing in US shares expensive. There are much cheaper pickings ie Euroland. Who said FTSE 7000, don’t think till after election its possible.

    2. I aim for 20-30 points stop loss entries on Dow, what I mean, I am looking for set ups when my strategy shows that I need 20-30 points stop loss for a trade. But sometimes I see that the set up developed for 50-60 points stop loss and I think it’s a good move, I should risk generally, but I am scared. For example yesterday the situation for 105 points stop loss developed, it could be reduced but if you take it by the book…. the profit for this trade would be 2:1 = 210 points. However it takes guts to take such a trade.
      I am talking about Short (actually I said about it with a phrase “Short Brewing on Dow” at 3:13) between 3.16-3.46 at any time on any candle between this time, so it gives you time to think, let’s say it would have been 18055 and stop loss 18160 of course. And profits 2:1 at 17845. Well, that’s where it came. But do you have the guts to carry this out? It’s tough.

  63. NewTrader says:
    “March 6, 2015 at 3:52 pm
    Hearing your story kind of puts me off. I am not sure if its worth it.”

    Just noticed your post. I don’t really want that my experience would put you off trading because everybody are so different. You may be able to control your emotions more than the others and become one of 2% of traders who earn money trading. But at least you should know that things happen and even worse than mine. You didn’t get Bad Situation guy story who was here several years ago, he lost 50 grand on FTSE rise. You need to think you will do better and follow your system seriously without any punt trades. Money management is the only thing which will make you earn money here (I talk it from other people’s experience, successful traders), emotions need to be controlled by money management. And trust your strategy, don’t test other strategies, follow the one you chosen.
    If you are still looking for one, it will take you several years to develop and test, let’s say I heard 3 years is usually enough to learn about trading and figure out what type of trader you are: short or long term trader, then you can start earning money.
    So try not to lose loads in the process. You may never lose, or lose a little and it will make you do better. But some people struggle with it after a long time.
    It leads to depression. So if you want to learn you need to take it seriously.
    Not like I did when I started.

    1. Thanks for explaining. Do only 2% make money trading? This figure is incredibly low if it’s correct. What chance does the average Joe have with figures so low? By the way, when you guys trade the FTSE at current levels what sort of stop are you using? 20, 30, 40, 50 points?

      I am trying to Learn from people, both from their success and failure, hence my joining this blog. I am trying to device a strategy that will hopefully deliver me some consistent profits. What are some of the the best free sites for studying charts, ones where you can add clear indicators (moving averages, RSI, etc) as well as superimpose your own lines? I have never understood candles. Never really attempted in understanding them. They seem really confusing.

      It’s the most amazing job if you can make a living from it? Work from home at your own pace, but it can also be easy to romanticise it, watch computer screens and make hundreds or even thousands of pounds in such short space of time all at the click of a mouse button.

      1. That’s what I heard, I think even Nick said it was 2%. But you need to be believe you’re gonna be one of them.
        To be honest it’s hard to say how people get their learning, I was getting stuff from different sources: somebody’s helping hands, correspondence in private, youtube, once purchased system which I had to refund it was rubbish. I looked through some other systems which I managed to get hold of free. They come along. Not sure what to advice, I cannot remember sites, normally I save info.
        I looked into Elliot waves, trending systems, channel systems, candle systems, level systems, no indicators systems, all sorts. Takes time.
        There’s nothing wrong with candles. You need to read about them like I once did, just the basics – hammer, shooting star etc. just to know they exist. I wouldn’t say I rely on them completely but they give me a clue now and then. And it doesn’t mean I every time want to figure out what the candle it is, if I notice it’s fine if not, I don’t remember about it. Because you use what you use in your strategy, and candle strategy is not what I use, but you need to know about them, it helps generally.
        I still see you are influenced by advertising: make money from home etc. 🙂
        Maybe somebody will advice you some good site to read. I used to know them.

  65. I always hear people say you need to develop a system/strategy that works for you. What does this exactly mean? How many different systems can there be. Yes people manage risk differently and their trading patterns might be a little different, but how unique can they be?

      1. I honestly am not. I am trying to learn from people hence the questions. I think people here are slightly defensive and don’t want to open up in case they give away any secrets, which I must say I can understand. But there is nothing wrong with some pointers. This is all new for me and I want to learn how people mange risk; for example, how much they are willing to risk for the potential gain they think they will make on a trade.

        Charting still confuses me a lot because I see different charts covering the same instrument all the time which can lead to different conclusions. It’s all fascinating. I still don’t fully understand what people mean by a system. Any explanation will be much appreciated. Thanks

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