Good morning. Nice long trade yesterday off the 6793 level, which, thanks to a rumour that Greece had reached an agreement, in principle, with the European Union to stay in an EU bailout program, saw it run to the target of 6850. I closed it at 6811 after collecting the 12 point divi as it could pretty much go anywhere at the moment, so happy to bank a few points. It looks like “they” are certainly keeping the FTSE below the 6855 level, as there has been any number of shorts off that level this week. A break of that will likely see a retest of 6900 and 6922 – think its safe to assume it would need positive EU/Greek news for that.
US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
(Bloomberg) — The euro retreated after European lawmakers failed to reach an agreement on how to keep bailout funds flowing to Greece. Asian stocks rose as Japan resumed trading after a holiday, while U.S. crude oil held below $50 a barrel.
The 19-nation euro lost 0.2 percent to $1.1313 by 9:09 a.m. in Tokyo, after rallying into the Wednesday close. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.6 percent as Japan’s Topix index jumped 1.5 percent from Tuesday levels. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures added 0.1 percent after earlier rising as much as 0.3 percent. Oil in New York climbed 1 percent to $49.32 after sinking more than 7 percent the past two days. Gold rose 0.2 percent after touching a five-week low. Korea’s won sank.
Talks in Brussels Wednesday covered a lot of ground, though no joint conclusion was reached, Eurogroup Chairman and Dutch finance minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem told reporters. Earlier, four euro-region officials said they were moving toward an agreement on a bailout extension, claims then repudiated by Greece, which has said it won’t accept extending the existing bailout program. Japan posted a bigger-than-forecast increase in machinery orders Thursday, with Australia to report on jobs.
“It’s so loaded on a Greek resolution at the moment,” Evan Lucas, a markets strategist in Melbourne at IG Ltd., said by phone before Dijsselbloem’s comments. “Everyone is waiting to see whether the high line stance from Germany and Greece waivers, and who waivers the most.”
The discussions between euro-area lawmakers and Greece are slated to resume next week. [ref]
FTSE Outlook
Today’s pivot is 6816 and after the drop back off 6850 on that Greek rumour, its initial resistance today. Above this level sees the 6855 level yet again as the line in the sand, and if the bulls can manage to break that then a visit to 6870, and then the top of the 10 day Bianca at 6922 looks probably. Its admittedly a bit of a casino as it could do anything while Greece calls the shots (and bluff) of the EU – who will blink first? If Greece leave does the house of cards collapse, or will the strongest survive as the weakest are cast aside? Does the EU bow to the demands, inevitability to be shortly to be called up by Spain and Italy for a renewed deal? One can speculate till the cows come home!
Anyway, support is 6786 today where we have the bottom of the 10 day Bianca, with the 20 day not far below that at 6772. A break of this won’t be good for the bulls though as 6745 then looks probable. I’d be inclined to try a long at 6772 if seen.
Riskbank Adding to the QE so guess we will be in for a trending day
Well, I sold at 40 for the ninth time lol, 8/8 so far, but this time looks a bit dodgy. Stop at 60. I felt like I owed it to short again, 6840 has made me ~150 points over the last few days, but to state the obvious, we haven’t broken out till we’ve broken out.
Despite all the noise about QE etc. this market doesn’t seem to want to go up. I get more and more bearish.
Last time momentum stalled like this, we dropped 400 points (before Christmas), but what do I know?
Hi tmfp, really fantastic work, but can you help me on how to find this range bound at very early stage? Thanks
Thanks Senu, I wish I had a magic formula but unfortunately not. A range is not a range until it’s a range, if you see what I mean.
I use Rsi/stochastic a lot, sell into strength, buy into weakness. I like short term double/triple tops and bottoms as trade confirmations e.g. this morning, sold on the third attempt at 53 because of falling RSI. If I can get in on extreme RSI reading i.e. over 75 under 25 it usually means I can get a 5 point cushion and have a b/e stop if it looks like it’s not doing what I hoped for.
I also ignore the noise i.e. so called fundamentals and news, just look at the numbers, nothing else.
Good Luck.
Don’t fall in love with a certain price number. It could be a breaking day. Why not, it’s Thursday (haha, that’s my sense of humour). Don’t know but I’m still on the positive side for the break to 18050.
Went short again on dax 10940 going let this run
there’s nothing to run. did you take your 30 points?
As the deadline is the 28th all I can see is a slow trickle down to 6770 ish
what is on 28th?
Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis had been meeting his Eurozone counterparts to discuss the bailout agreement which expires on February 28th. The talks will resume on Monday, which is widely seen as the unofficial deadline for reaching an agreement. Although a behind the scenes deal (likely an emergency extension of the bailout) could always come between then and February 28th, time is clearly running out.
I see, this is a significant event for the market. Cheers.
FTSE 5 mins. — Suspect developing peak (≈ 6830) against falling short-term trend (SMA 100) ⇒ return to 6800 … …
On the other hand, Dow looks buoyant. 😀
Jim, what reason for dow to be buoyant? results?
No jack… What are you going on about? I am leaving it too run in other word leaving it open for a few days like last Monday
I see, hope you placed your short though.
I meant stop.
No Jack why would I place a stop if I am letting it run?????
Oh Gosh. No Stop? I stopped trading like this since the beginning of this year, that’s why I took a break at the end of the year to seriously analyse this problem. And trust me I was burnt a lot before that and I am not getting back there, thank you very much. If there’s no stop it’s a gamble. I am quite serious right now. My trader’s diary is taken so much time for discussing my feelings about stop losses, winning back, fear of holding and losing, greed etc. and how to overcome it. I write my feelings about opening stops and how it feels and what it means. I came to quite a remarkable thoughts apart from what I also found on net.
When I enter a trade I need to know where’s my stop and where and when I am getting out. That’s it. I can’t bearing “floating” in a market which could float any direction. 2 grand it floated for me to another direction and nothing I could do. You are letting run nothing if it runs against you.
Was just commenting on the Dow chart Senu, e.g., 4 hrs. as shown — I think it will take another jump.
http://i1348.photobucket.com/albums/p736/jmca01/WallStreetDFB_zpsd5c31289.png
oh.. thanks 🙂
Not quite 18050 yet. But it’s getting there.
Jack I have been trading for 6 years, for the last 4 years have not used stop… I refuse to day trade or scalp fasted way to lose money most of my trades are 2 to 10 days sure sometime the process can go a little wrong but let’s look at last week Monday same trade reduced 50% at 150 points then took another 20% at 275 points let the rest run with a stop at 10800 which was still a further 140 points the profit was rather large. Everyone as there own edge, maybe one day I will signed up too nicks service to learn how too day trade the ftse but at the moment my style sort me… But this may change come March when QE starts in Europe so maybe that when I will try nicks services.
OK, I will drop you one name, which you can google about. Victor Niederhoffer. This man didn’t use stop losses and one day on Dow Jones by the way on a single day decline he lost everything (as far as I know about it). He also claimed he never used stop losses. And I don’t think this man was daytrading.
Some more info: in one of the articles I read the following (here’s translation):
Stop loss is like a guarantee from the fire. Most of the time losing position can win back and you will manage to get b.e. and even get a profit. But only one trade when this wouldn’t happen would mean the ultimate ruin of the whole deposit. (and trust me this does happen).
However it’s up to you, take it or leave it. GL
Jack please don’t tell me how too trade… I don’t need too Google any names thanks also please note …. It’s called money management for my current position to blow my account the dax would need too hit 25000. Don’t think I will be waking up to that.
DO WHAT YOU WANT>
Jack I will thanks…. But from what I have read of your post you lose money all the time… Then you blame everyone else oh it’s this its that oh nick arrow don’t make sense … Then you try and advice me who has a reasonable system how to trade… Go back to reading the how to trade books and keep losing money BYE