Support 6831,6780, 6767, 6745 Resistance 6858, 6870, 6895, 6919, 7028

Good morning. Slightly frustrating that the order I set to long at 6787 missed by 0.3 points before the FTSE rallied to 6855 again. C’est la vie. The while Greece thing is major one minute then shrugged off as the US climbs to near on record highs, though the FTSE hasn’t really managed to break that 6855 level with any conviction, and is back at 6843 as I am writing this. If the bulls break this then I expect we will test the top of the Bianca 10 day today at 6919 today.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
(Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks rose, sending the Nasdaq Composite Index to the highest level in almost 15 years, as Cisco Systems Inc. and Expedia Inc. rallied and optimism grew over a cease-fire in Ukraine.

Cisco jumped 9.4 percent as profit and sales topped estimates. Expedia rose 15 percent after agreeing to acquire Orbitz Worldwide Inc. Online travel rival TripAdvisor Inc. soared 23 percent. American Express Co. slipped 6.4 percent as it plans to end co-brand and merchant agreements with Costco Wholesale Corp.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 1 percent to 2,088.48 at 4 p.m. in New York. The index is less than 3 points from a record reached Dec. 29. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.2 percent to 4,857.61, the highest level since March 2000. The Nasdaq 100 Index surged 1.2 percent, also reaching a nearly 15-year high. About 7.2 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges today, 4.8 percent above the three-month average.

“There’s general optimism around the U.S. economy and a little bit of relief that some of the major international issues are not going to impinge just yet on positive trends here,” John Carey, a Boston-based fund manager at Pioneer Investment Management, which oversees about $230 billion, said in a phone interview. “For the moment people seem to be somewhat more at ease about some of the trouble spots in the world. People are looking at the glass half full.”

Record Highs
Equities are approaching record levels for the first time in 2015, bolstered by the biggest three-month rise in hiring in 17 years and signs of easing tension between Greece and its euro-area creditors. The S&P 500 has rallied 4.7 percent in February after sinking 3.1 percent in January for its worst month in a year.

The Nasdaq Composite closed below 4,000 twice last year, on Feb. 3 and April 11, but has rallied nearly 22 percent since then. The gauge is now 3.8 percent below its all-time closing high of 5,048.62, set on March 10, 2000.

The index has gotten a boost in 2015 from large technology stocks. Apple Inc. has increased 15 percent, Netflix Inc. has surged 34 percent and Amazon.com Inc. has risen 22 percent year-to-date. Apple climbed to a record of $126.46 high today, while Amazon is about 6.2 percent from an all-time high.

U.S. stocks have traded for the last two months in one of the tightest ranges since 2007, marked by a record high of 2,090.57 and Dec. 16 low of 1,972.74 for the S&P 500.

Dollar Increase
The strongest dollar in a decade and a plunge in oil prices that threaten investment and earnings growth have tested the resilience of investors as the bull market nears its seventh anniversary. Concern that European growth is slipping amid signs of deflation, coupled with a showdown that led to speculation Greece would exit from the region’s shared currency also weighed on investor sentiment.

A peace summit between Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, Russian President Vladimir Putin and French and German leaders ended early Thursday with an accord on a cease-fire to stem the conflict that’s devastated eastern Ukraine.

European Union leaders will take up the baton on Greece when they gather in Brussels on Thursday after finance ministers from the euro area concluded talks saying that compromise was possible on the country’s future financing. The ministers failed to bridge their differences in six hours of discussions Wednesday and agreed to reconvene for another attempt on Monday.

‘Upward Momentum’
“The Ukraine resolution is just one less thing to think about or be concerned about at this point,” Richard Sichel, chief investment officer at Philadelphia Trust Co., which oversees $2 billion, said in a phone interview. “U.S.-based companies keep proving that they’re the best place to be, and the market is continuing to have some really nice upward momentum this month.”

With the S&P 500 trading at 17.5 times its members’ projected earnings, a multiple 22 percent higher than the five-year average, investors are analyzing earnings reports and economic data to assess stocks valuations.

Equities pared early gains Thursday as data showed sales at U.S. retailers fell more than forecast in January, reflecting smaller receipts at gasoline stations and declines at clothing and sporting goods stores. A separate report showed applications for unemployment benefits climbed last week to a level that’s consistent with progress in the U.S. labor market.

The S&P 500 has more than tripled from its bear-market low in March 2009, propelled higher by better-than-forecast corporate earnings and three rounds of Federal Reserve bond purchases. The Fed renewed its pledge in January to maintain record-low borrowing costs even as the economy shows signs of acceleration.

Earnings Reports
Almost three-quarters of index members have reported results so far, with 77 percent beating profit estimates and 57 percent topping sales projections, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index fell 9.6 percent to 15.34. The gauge, know as the VIX, is down 11 percent for the week after losing more than 17 percent last week.

Eight of 10 major industries in the S&P 500 climbed today, with commodity, energy and technology companies jumping at least 1.3 percent.

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

We have a nice looking 30min channel in play for today with support at the pivot around 6831 and if this level holds then we should get some bullishness, which MAY well finally break the 6858 resistance area. If so then I expect we will get a test of the top of the 10 day Bianca at 6919 – and this is probably worth a short from. On the flip side, the bottom of that 10 day channel is 6780, so I expect that we will get good support there if it dips that low – as below this then 6745 is the next support after the 6767 20 day channel bottom.

Today though I am thinking that the 6831 area is going to hold and therefore worth a long from, otherwise I am trading off the 10 day Bianca channels, with a stop below the 20 day 6767 (and also the 25ema on the daily), so 2 decent supports at 6767.

A good day to make new highs on the S&P most likely as the superstitious ones stay clear, being Friday 13th and all.

51 Comments

  1. I have always wondered if a stop can be used in gambling?
    1. Take a punt on a horse – No. 18 – stop No 17 !! so if anything
    below 17 wins – I only lose 1/18 of my bet – interesting !
    2. Roulette – bet on Red 18 to lose. Stop red 19 / any black numbers
    so if ball lands on black 25. No problems – I only lose 1/18 of my
    bet of £180 = £ 10 loss. Interesting.
    Casino / bookies – not really game for this.
    Spread betting – are game for a placement of a Stoploss.
    Now thats weird. Wonder why?
    Are they so confident that whatever stop is placed – SB companies
    never lose? Or are they gambling on that most punters never
    use a stop ?
    The other thing is – Horses / Roulette – there is a mutiple choice
    Spreadbetting – Up or Down? – yet Stop Placement is allowed.

    My only take is – Humans are hardwired to ALWAYS make the
    wrong choice in a simple – Yes/No decision. !!

  5. 18053 on boxing day 2014 for DOW, 6950 for FTSE on last day of 20th century (composition of index has changed since then).
    Looking to buy a breakthrough, Senu?

      1. Just looking to take a little long around 50/60 for a re test of 86 and see how it goes from there. I’d be surprised if it goes mental today but downside seems limited.

      1. Nice one Senu, virtually exactly the same as me 🙂 Was too overbought to go through first time. Let’s see what the Yanks do.

  9. smokingaces says:
    February 13, 2015 at 10:46 am
    Jack I will thanks…. But from what I have read of your post you lose money all the time… Then you blame everyone else oh it’s this its that oh nick arrow don’t make sense … Then you try and advice me who has a reasonable system how to trade… Go back to reading the how to trade books and keep losing money BYE
    ——
    Not all the time, only when I didn’t use stop losses. I’ve seen how your position got into -72 points at 8.30 this morning on Dax, nothing remarkable about that so don’t tell me you got a 100% safe trading system. Losses accumulate and a little loss may become a big one. I only had 1 trade to lose a lot of money, I didn’t need hundreds. Everybody learn by their mistake. Maybe one day you will learn it hard way like I did and then you will have no reason to laugh about my misfortune.
    Keep floating.
    And BYE

  10. Jack I been trading for over 6 years so try not too belittle me my money managerment works well for my trading, so don’t tell me how to trade! my trading is over a longer period of time.
    Now let’s look at you you are ignorant you try too call me out you always moaning about nicks arrow yet you don’t pay for the service! You always saying you lose money you can’t afford too lose, so why do you trade are you really that stupid?

    1. My personal achievements has nothing to do with the advice I’ve given. But I see it’s getting you so much because you know that you are wrong and that’s why you continue insulting me for no particular reason just because you cannot stop yourself. And one day you will not stop in trading and lose your money. It could be this year, next year or in the next 10s years but it will happen TO YOU. And all your years of experience will not SAVE YOU.
      This is the last argument on this matter, I have better things to do.

      1. Why do you guys spend so much time bitching. At the end of the day we are here to make money and enjoy our trades. You pair need to grow up and focus on what’s important.

  11. Jack how do you know I will lose? I know you can’t predict the future shit you can’t even predict a winning trade lol

  13. Days like these are the best. You simply short after any significant rise in the FTSE. As long as you keep some discipline it’s like having your own ATM. Made over 200 points in the last 3 days.

    1. Hi argyle. 200!! crikee!… i would be willing to pay if you’d be interested in some private tuition?…

      1. Mr benson. Short the FTSE when it’s over 6850, till end of March. You will make bucket loads, after then with the election due in May it will no doubt hit the 7000 mark before normal service resumes in mid May.

        1. Thanks i’l bear that in mind. I only do £1 a point, to keep it fun, lost loads a few years ago…could i ask, how much per point you bet?….i soppose it vary’s?…
          Ta.

          1. Hello again. I read your post on short term double/triple tops and bottoms, very interesting. Do you use a separate program for RSI readings? It sounds like quite an important factor…also, i’m surprised you ignore the news? I thought that was well important to ftse indices? (but then, what do i know….:) )

            Thanks again.

  14. Going too be a big weekend/week with uckaine will cease fire even start or break within days… Then greece how much are either side going to move? Make or break next week I think

  15. Hello all. Anyone going to stick their neck and make a prediction next week??? Just for fun….(ftse100…..as hypothetical as you like :)…

    1. Bigger drops coming, 6750 atleast, then who knows. Monday is always volatile.

      Dow has hit a peak pivot IMO too, so will be a slight drop which will help FTSE down a little.

      1. 6750 sounds about right to me. Popped a short of £20 a point on Friday evening at 8.59. If Ukraine cease fire doesn’t stick then watch the Dax drag it down tomorrow. Wouldn’t be surprised if 6600 isn’t reached in mid March before the inevitable rise to record levels a few weeks before the election providing there are no new global concerns. Get the ATM stocked up.

    2. Hi mrbenson, accepting your challenge! I have a different view to Ravi’s. I think the Dow, DAX and FTSE will make significant gains next week, barring calamitous events, and of course there is some scope for the latter.
      Looking at FTSE/daily, the overall trend as measured by the ϵ-channel which I have drawn is flat between late January and the present. In that time, my ROC indicator has cycled down, but has remained positive and is beginning to turn up again. So I think an upward break is on the cards — in which case 6900 will give way, and new highs around 7000 will beckon.
      My guess is that Dow ⇒ 18250 and DAX ⇒ 11400. 😀
      FTSE/daily:
      http://i1348.photobucket.com/albums/p736/jmca01/FTSE100DFB_zps044f14c3.png

        1. Hi Argyle — US mood more confident on the back of recent strong economic data. ECB QE at €60bn/month starts next month. Low interest rates and bond yields supply huge incentive to prime the markets. Even Draghi knows full well that the banks will not be increasing their lending to consumers and small businesses — far too risky!

          1. What you say is correct Jim, but kind of feel that it’s been factored in already. Euro stocks will be less keen to fall, however a strong pound against Euro and no QE IN Uk can only mean compared to other the FTSE is not attractive at the moment. Money will flow from FTSE to Dax, CAC etc. I feel Dow will try and hold 18000 level but again with the Dollar strong it’s only a matter of time before it starts to fall. In summary Euro markets will hold reasonably but FTSE and Dow will suffer.

          2. We’ll just have to see how it all pans out Argyle! The Dow has ranged within roughly 17-18100 since early December; huge volatility, but a flat trend. Underlying growth though is strong, and very much on the up right now — a decent upswing is about due. That the Dow and S&P 500 lead the way is certainly part of my case. Then again, the DAX is already drooling on the promise of plenty starting next month. I think you aint seen nothing yet! I think some of the guaranteed freshly printed ECB largesse will find its way to the FTSE — sufficient to warrant a gathering of skirts! But good luck. 😀

  18. With the Americans on holiday tomorrow, anything could happen, however with the cease fire in Ukraine seemingly not holding, a very short day could be on the cards. Seem to remember on a U.S. holiday within the last couple of years the FTSE dropped nearly 200 points. Not suggesting that much but wouldn’t be surprised to see FTSE SUB 6800 by evening.

    1. Yes, sounds plausible, be good if it did (short), i’d get my 30 odd points back! took a short at 6840 on thursday at some point i think it was. Should be interesting. Good luck!

      1. Mr benson just sit on that short and when it drops below 6840 let it run and make yourself a nice profit. FTSE being held back for political reasons to allow it to rise magnificently to record levels during the election campaign. However for it to get to 7000 first it has to fall back so that momentum can be gained. If you are brave enough hold it to 6750. Don’t waste your opportunity by cashing in at break even.

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