Support 6510/6515 this morning, resistance 6579

Good morning. Well apologies for yesterday, got that a little bit wrong as to the direction of the trending day! Unfortunately, whilst the charts were showing a bounce due from the bottom of those daily channels, the Russia/Crimea/Ukraine issue took centre stage and caused havoc with index prices. As such the longs all got stopped out but fortunately stops prevented anything too major. Rather than try and trade it in this instances I tend to just stand aside and let the dust settle.

Bianca Trends
Bianca Trends

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks fell, with a regional gauge set for the biggest weekly slump since May 2012, while regional bond risk climbed and copper dropped on concern China’s economy is faltering. Wheat headed for a second weekly gain before Crimea votes on leaving Ukraine.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index sank 2 percent by 3:06 p.m. in Tokyo, set for its lowest close since Feb. 7. A gauge of Chinese firms (HSCEI) inHong Kong fell more than 20 percent from a Dec. 2 high while Tencent Holdings Ltd. tumbled 4.9 percent after a report China’s central bank halted some forms of electronic payment. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average slid 3.3 percent as the yen headed for its biggest weekly advance since Jan. 24. The cost of insuring Asia-Pacific bonds from default jumped 4 basis points. Copper headed for its biggest weekly slump since April.

About $1.2 trillion was wiped from global stocks this week through yesterday as Chinese economic data missed estimates, overshadowing signs of improvement in the U.S. economy. The Black Sea region of Crimea votes March 16 on becoming independent or rejoining Russia, with the U.S. and Germany threatening Moscow with sanctions over its support for the secession. The U.K. reports trade data today and Russia’s central bank decides on monetary policy.

“There is very little doubt that the Chinese economy is going through a structural slowdown,” said Matthew Sherwood, who helps manage about $25 billion as the Sydney-based head of investment markets research at Perpetual Ltd. “Investors are voting with their money and decreasing their risk exposure after a pretty good six-week rally. They are increasing their exposure to riskless government bonds.”

Treasuries Rally
Treasuries rallied by the most since September this week, sending the yield on benchmark 10-year notes down by 14 basis points since March 7 to 2.64 percent. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index erased its gain for the year yesterday. Futures (SPA) on the U.S. equity benchmark were little changed.

Worst Performer
“The concerns are overdone,” Tim Radford, a strategist at Rivkin Securities in Sydney, said by phone. “Markets had a pretty good run and people are taking some risk off the table.”

Japan’s Topix index dropped 3.2 percent, as all 33 industry groups retreated more than 2.4 percent for the week. The Nikkei 225 is the developed world’s worst performing major index in the days since March 7.

The yen is posting the biggest gain among the 16 major currencies this week, rising 1.4 percent versus the greenback. Japan’s currency, regarded by some investors as a safe haven, climbed 0.2 percent to 101.68 per dollar today, after climbing 0.9 percent in the previous session.

John Kerry
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry warned Russia that the U.S. and Europe could take “very serious” steps should there be no sign of a resolution with Ukraine. Kerry, who told a Senate panel in Washington that “nobody doubts” Crimea will vote to leave Ukraine, will meet face-to-face with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in London today. Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkelsaid Russia is risking “massive” political and economic damage by refusing to back down on Crimea.

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

FTSE Outlook
Well got that wrong yesterday, however we have the bottom of the Bianca 10 day channel at 6510 today so may see a bounce there if the political warmongering isn’t at the forefront of everything today.As such I think I will try a long there and see how it goes and as its Friday with everything up in the air, just that one trade in the plan!

We have the daily pivot for today at 6579 so I expect that may be initial resistance if there are any rises. After that 6602 has a fib pivot line.

104 Comments

  1. Glen – Nick has a different view to my posting on the 13th
    so please take my take on the market with a pinch of salt
    His analysis is much superior – so don’t get swayed by
    what I said

    1. Don’t worry I’m stubborn I only trade as how I feel it will go no one can give you a sure sign if they could they will be a billionaire and banned from all spread betting.

  2. Still holding long from 6517 not huge +12 want to make back my loss from yesterday then I’m out for a little.

    FTSE cant break 6540 wall at the moment needs to get into 50’s for a good rise I think :/ but that could be a sign to go short on my history on this.

      1. Nice like that, my plan today is turn a quick profit which I could take now then wait it out on US open 6460 would be a great long the only thing I don’t like about that is its Friday and holding over the weekend is something I avoid as so much can happen.

      1. Nicks charts, gut feeling partly if I think its oversold or bought, I’ve been looking at double/treble bottoms/tops which I like the DAX bounced off 9200 a lot yesterday which I made £100 with a little risk and tiny betting odd +2, +3.

        To be honest I’m learning really overall I’m down but I keep try trying to find a way to make small amounts at low risk if possible. My trend seems to be I trade really well then I get stung with a big loss. I need to accept losses and not move my stops lower thinking it will bounce as risk goes up.

          1. No I’m only doing as a bit of fun probably like a gambler to start with but I’m learning to make my bets lower, more researched and I’ve learnt I’m greedy and want to make loads daily but I need to revaluate my expectation’s.

            I work so its hard to watch the market originally I thought I would set up my stops and leave it but it don’t really work well for me you really need to watch it all day with day trading as the swings can be huge.

            Ive only been doing this for a month or so I’m sure most people on here are well more experienced.

          2. Yes I think so as well . Lot of very experienced
            traders here. I think some of them said they
            are professional traders .

  4. Gamblers. Day traders are gamblers, nothing more. No one can predict the market.
    You will loose big time in long term. The house wins always.
    The name of the site, suggests that. SPREADBETTING
    An investor have position traders and sell in tops and buy in dips.

    1. More I trade, I tend to agree but there are people that make money but then I guess that’s what the companies want you to hear.

      1. yes and indices are something aside with much less exposure and only go long in dip reverses. Never go short in long term bull indices.
        Shorters are loosers.

          1. I think people who short – are taking the trade
            ” dip ” as you put it – where you buy. so look
            at this way – without them – you will never have
            a dip – so how would you ” buy on a dap “

  6. Any views Cumberland? Dax has had a pretty strong bounce back to 9000 and I can’t gauge if this is just some relief rally and the whole 90 tick move will dissolve with the weekend looming
    GG

    1. http://screencast.com/t/7V6BpGLM

      essentially – I am short 6539 – looking to go down 1..3…5
      But Looks like Nick is looking higher & its already above 6539
      but I am stubborn like Glen – so will probably get bitten
      lets see .. will assess as day progresses I suppose

  9. Will take profit on my short 6539 at 6508 – then reassess
    Probably short again at 6515 +/- 3

  14. Still short Dax at 8999, will run it to see if US shows any weakness to drag it through yesterday’s low. 8900 was a big level on my chart and if it breaks I feel we will retest October lows of 8600
    GG

  18. In regards to luan, trading is each to ones own. So long as you have good trade management and you manage stops/limits I can’t see the problems with day trading. Personally this dip was a long time coming especially that DAX which was grossly inflated. Shorting is not necessarily a gamble as eventually those people holding longs will need to eventually sell off. Obviously it’s only with hindsight that we can the peak before the drop. Atm next week will be the time to start buying dips for the long term for that inevitable ftse record break.

  21. Still short Dax at 8999, stop at the days high – ugly looking intraday chart but feel safe 9000 won’t be taken again. Anyone any ideas why Eur/$ is still bid?

  23. Easy with the shorts guys… I see a sell off into close, but Looking for DAX 9135, FTSE 6575 and DOW 16170-200 to sell for lower lows.

  24. Well I have to say your right Andy as I just got stopped out in the Dax near entry level after watching it tank 80 points. 30 mins to drop 80 points, 30 mins to bounce 130!

    1. Bit of a whipsaw at the moment… Hope it wasn’t a stop hunt before dropping. All stops to b/e but will be disappointed to get hit and make nothing out of that move.

  25. Anyone short from that spike up to 6540 just? A lot of resistance there this morning so thought this was primed to go lower today but now not sure. Stop set to B/E.

      1. lol i can’t see that happening but then again its Friday and it always seems to go the opposite way to what I’m thinking ha.

          1. I think you might be able to take a few points I would be careful though that dax has power today and the FTSE hasn’t caught up if the US open don’t push everything down this could fly.

  26. Started my mid term longs.

    Will buy the dips expected with the Dow and S&P still correcting.

    Will increase my buys as the FTSE reaches that 50day MA.

    Enough equity to hold the longs for the “mini crisis” that I still believe to be on the cards 🙂

    Still believe there to be some down time until Fed meeting concludes, will then reconsider any positions.
    Gl all

    1. You are a ” swing Trader ” – so what is making you see directional change – this early ?

    2. Where are the professional traders today
      James and Blonde and Jboe

      We need advise. help us

  28. I thought I would check back and the DAX has gone through the roof I closed everything and only made £14!! how did I only manage that better than a loss I guess :s

  29. I think the brokers know something what we don’t.with the current situation in the world i wouldn’t keep any positions over the weekend…
    or is just the usual pump and dump?I have a position on DAX short from 9043 target 9000 stop at BE.hope it will work out

  31. this is bollocks lol, getting very itchy with this short on ftse.
    Russia should just attack ukraine, make us happy

    2. and they will…lol….just wait till 4pm, I don’t think all those market manipulators here and specially over the pond will want to hold long positions over the weekend. Just remember there is no new investors coming in to the market in my opinion, its just daily trade

  32. Where are the professional traders today
    James and Blonde and Jboe

    We need advise. help us

  33. Cumberland,

    If you read all my posts, it would answer that q.

    Always start early…
    Buying everything downwards…

    1. OK – have been following your posts – not sure which part you are refeering to?

      As a swing trader – Which i can only ascertain from your posts – what is the
      ” initial ” signs that you are seeing to indicate that it is time to buy ?

      I understand – your ” start early ” – but how does today or from now on – become ” early ” . This is what I am trying to work out !

      I am a day trader – so very blind to swing early signs.

      For me – There is Nothing indicating a bottoming – even a slight bottoming of the market.

      Hence my curiosity !

  34. Nothing technical but the ftse is heading for sub 6500 by the close- with the referendum over the weekend I don’t see anyone holding over the weekend-I have no position at present so just my thoughts!
    GG

  36. New lows coming. Then may buy some CALLS to hold over the weekend incase it gaps up… Wouldn’t want to hold any cash positions in case US & Russia kick off when they meet. OPEX next week though is usually bullish

  38. From the Professional Traders – they advise – a bottoming process takes place when
    1. to look at – The CBOE’s volatility index, known as the VIX to be over 25

    2. a gold rally

    3. oil falling

    4. treasury yields falling

    5. net fund flow out of market

    Well thats what they tell anyway.

  42. Andy,

    Can you explain bottoming process to me as those reasons given sound more like a market ready to sell off!

    High VIX I thought was a sign of worry and indecision.

    Rising gold is a hedge strategy when risk assets look vulnerable

    Falling oil prices has bigger -ve effect on producers causing falling revenue

    Treasury yields down signals a flight to safety

    Not adamant it’s going down but I don’t understand the explanation of it forming a bottom

    GG

    1. this is what ive been looking at exactly….the 15mins is showing a push upwards, scaring me with my short position.
      I also mentioned about 6500 being most likely the bottom.
      Will close at whatever loss/profit by 4.36

  47. Still holding my maximum on dax from 9000 have a very large profit now, may reduce 60% now

  48. Best to start buying long term indicators for daily on ftse/DAX bpl levelling off at the bottom. The only worry is that DOW can still bring it down. Long £50 pp @ 6530 ftse, 9042 DAX. Stops @ 6500 and 9000 respectively.
    Gl all

  49. Looks like whatever happens – Crimea – will become the 85th province of Russia.

    So it will end in Mr Hague M.P. doing another round of useless trips to …..The Hague.

    Putin vs. Hague – Wonder who will win !!!

    I have decided to keep my shorts – no stops & no targets.

  51. Went long 6520 FTSE might hold over weekend too against what I said earlier haha I probably should just sit out really.

  53. Thanks GG ending closing 60% at 9075 and the other 40 @ 9035 no trades open now so will sleep better this weekend lets see what next week brings.

  55. dow needs to come down to 15800 to level to have a level playing field before any rise on ftse which should by then be 6400……… looks likely but only my opinion

  56. Yes, there is a quandary. S&P 500 and Dow are off their March peaks by ≈ 2.1 and 2.4% respectively. However, FTSE and DAX have suffered falls of ≈ 5.0 and 6.8% respectively from their February peaks. Maybe it’s differences in momentum. Maybe Europeans are more apprehensive about the state of Putin’s sanity and the effects of the QE reductions to come. Looking at FTSE /daily, we should now be in or very close to a buy zone, but will the Europeans experience an upwards pull while US indices continue to unravel, or will we all go up together? There is another possibility of course, which is that we all continue down together. Needs watching. We have touched 6500. If we fall below that level, I think more downside will be on the cards.

    http://i1348.photobucket.com/albums/p736/jmca01/FTSE100DFB_zps761fae34.png

  57. I think we will see another bit towards the downside… Can’t see Yellen doing to much at the fed meeting if anything think the feds will support the market while the Russia/ Ukraine troubles continue.

    1. Do you think Luke that the Fed. might suspend tapering this month in view of the nervousness occasioned by the Crimean crisis? It would be interesting to have the ‘city view’ on these questions would it not? 🙂

  58. why people try finding bottoms ?
    Waiting ? daaahh
    When the upside begins, after a while people try to find tops.
    In both cases they are burned.
    When upside resumes we will see in charts, but many will be afraid, saying this will go down again, do not trust this move…short is the word… and so on

  60. Hi Jim as far I remember the Feds were going to stop QE by the end of 2014 they have taken 20 billion off the table so far, so even without the Russia/Ukraine crisis there was no guaranteeing they would take another 10 billion off the table this month… Data has been mixed so far from America and the market have started to wobble if anything think Yellen will support the market to stop any more sell off.

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