Good morning. Friday’s trading actually worked out alright for once, managing to get a few points off the long from the 6510 area, though the rise was shortlived going into the weekend. Not surprising really with the Russia/Crimea/Ukraine situation still rumbling on. Talking of which the big news yesterday was the referendum, where 95% voted to rejoin Russia. A result not being totally believed in the West by the look of it. This week sees the UK budget on Wednesday, during which the chancellor is expected to report continuing growth.
Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks fell, with the regional gauge extending the biggest weekly loss since 2012, as western nations disputed Crimea’s vote to rejoin Russia.
Aeon Co. (8267) sank 4.8 percent in Tokyo after Japan’s biggest retailer posted profit that trailed estimates. Tencent Holdings Ltd., Asia’s largest Internet company, slid 3.6 percent in Hong Kong after China blocked plans to offer virtual credit cards. SoftBank Corp., a Japanese phone carrier that owns part of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., jumped 5.8 percent after China’s biggest e-commerce company kicked off the process for what may be the biggest U.S. initial public offering in two years.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.5 percent to 133.70 as of 2:15 p.m. in Tokyo, extending last week’s 3.5 percent slump. Almost two shares fell for each that rose on the gauge. Preliminary results show that more than 95 percent of voters in Crimea chose to leave Ukraine and become part of Russia in a referendum deemed illegal by the European Union and the U.S.
“If there are signs war is extending, it might impact Europe negatively,” Binay Chandgothia, a Hong Kong-based portfolio manager who helps oversee $250 billion at Principal Global Investors, said on Bloomberg Television. “At this stage its OK. It depends upon how severely Germany and the partners in the European Union view this referendum.”
Japan’s Topix index slid 1.3 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.2 percent. Taiwan’s Taiex Index was little changed.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped 0.4 percent, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) of mainland companies added 0.3 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index gained 0.5 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index and New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index rose 0.2 percent.
China Outlook
A gauge of expected price swings in China’s yuan climbed to an 18-month high and the offshore exchange rate weakened as the central bank doubled the currency’s trading limits versus the dollar. Economists at UBS AG, Bank of America Corp., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Nomura Holdings Inc. have cut forecasts for Chinese growth after disappointing data fueled speculation the nation may not meet its 7.5 percent economic-expansion target for 2014.
“Investors are pretty nervous about the China story at the moment,” Adrian Mowat, Hong Kong-based chief Asia and emerging-market strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co., said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “You throw in what’s going on in Crimea, and I imagine it’s going to be a pretty difficult week for the markets.”
U.S. Futures
Futures on the S&P 500 lost 0.1 percent. The U.S. benchmark index dropped 0.3 percent on March 14 amid concerns over the Crimea standoff.
Western countries have threatened to ratchet up sanctions against Russia if it doesn’t back down on annexing Crimea. Russia has deployed about 60,000 troops along the Ukrainian border, the government in Kiev said. The majority of Crimea’s residents are ethnic Russians and President Vladimir Putin says they are at risk after last month’s ouster of Ukraine’s president Viktor Yanukovych, who was backed by the Kremlin.
FTSE Outlook
Its not looking too hot on the daily trends at the moment as both the 10 and 20 day Raff channels are heading down. As I write this we are hovering around the daily pivot at 6527, which is acting as resistance. Bulls need to get the price above 6538 ASAP, to have any hope of some respite from the falls, but an overnight low of 6495 still shows the bears in control. Maybe we will see that 6200 level after all this year! Of course, if the Crimea situation continues to escalate, then that doesn’t bode well for stock markets, nor does the possible risk that the Malaysia plane has been stolen for a possible attack (all very odd that one, did hear a rumour that it had $500million of Chinese gold on board too….. could just be a heist after all).
We have the bottom of the 10 day Bianca channel at 6471 today, so if 6500 breaks then that level is worth a long again – the 10 day channel has been working pretty well this year, certainly for initial bounces anyway, so flags good entry levels. There is also a ProTrend line on the daily chart at 6476.
Ftse holding 6550 well am still on the sideline at the moment, would rather enter a small long at 6500 and same with dax small long at 9000
i will short from here, look to go to 30 and hopefully below
Im long from 6555, will get out soon and short.
Am also going to think about opening long positions after the fed meeting to hold for a few weeks.
Range bound ftse – boring
short 6552, target 6530
Looks like this will be going up this afternoon
Anyone know tomorrow divs
Almost nothing, 2.44….so there will be no dividend hunters today or tomorrow
Hash you still holding that short
I closed my friday short at a profit
reopened at 6554 (not 6552)
in my view we will be seeing 6500 again
may close my short soon and re-enter at 6580
so, you forsee a bounce after dow open?
Agree think we will be heading south again probably see 6600 first
Re lift-off – so far so good. I am eying 6600 rather than 6500!
not a good time for me to go short on 6580!
Havies you still holding on your long buddy? =]. Good long indeed. Closed for 42 pp, can’t see it going any more after a 90 point swing
You are an idiot thinking like that
Yup,
Long FTSE, Dow, Dax and s&p.
Had to slightly re-evaluate my entries, but all good. Will target 6800 on FTSE before I will consider another swing 😉
Gl mate
Short 6582, target 6520
Critical point for medium-term longs.
http://i1348.photobucket.com/albums/p736/jmca01/FTSE100DFB_zps11294cb6.png
Thanks Jim. Agreed we are now at a critical point. What is your view on direction? Personally holding my longs for now. Obviously a lot of geo-political risk which cannot be predicted at present.
Exogenous shocks apart Javed, and allowing too for some give and take around the latest low, I think Havies has it about right; re-evaluate at around 6800.
Luan I was talking in regards to day trading… I still have a small long on ftse and my long on DAX from 9000. So shhhh…
Havies
I am targeting 6800
Agreed Jim my medium term target has been revised to 6850….I was thinking we were looking good for 7000 by April and then Ukraine decided to kick off!
Don’t right it off just yet 😉
Year end target is 7200, so we need to at least come to 7000 soon…
I think we will see 7100 by April end
I have revised my target to 6825
Yep sure Havies…..it would be good. My year end prediction was around 7050 – 7100…..being pretty much flat between May to December.
A lot of people talking a lot of BS on here, quite amusing. Some talking it down to 6400 on Friday, nothing’s changed and apparently we are now heading for 7000+ in the next few weeks!
Thanks Adam
Hi Guys
Went short at 6590 – But you guys are beginning to frighten me with your predictions targets.
I was reckoning – we were still in the bounds of a move lower – back to 6500 & lower.
But Your 6800 predictions – wow… Wow… its got me psyched me out !! I have reworked my charts – & turned it upside down – But just don’t seem to to get anywhere near that.
Wow. Dont know what to say !!
My sentiments exactly Cumberland…
Am short at 6575.
I think we will see a fall to 6550, and maybe 6500-6450 going into wednesday fed meeting.
But as i said i think this is a good time to build small longs and buy the dips. I am expecting a 6900 in april once the diplomatic nightmares of us-russia clear.
We are in a bull market. so we will go higher.
So Luan it’s come off 20 points, good thing I closed it. Better safe in my account than nothing!
in bull market – once putin problem is sorted out which i think is nearly done now. we will get to 6800 by next week & 7100 by April
sure, why not 8000?…lol,…..yah, almost 10% in just 2 weeks?!!!…can I have some of the staff you on mate…lol
They said the nikkei was in a bull market when it hit 30000
Not saying it’s never going to 7000 Nitup but nothing has changed since Friday when everyone was scaremongering, if anything our fears have just been realised. Silly comment by the way to say that the Putin problem is nearly sorted!
It may not yet be resolved, but the expectation is there that it will be resolved. Wait till it’s resolved and you’ve missed the move.
Only when nikkei got to 30000 it could get to 32000, 34000 36000 then 38000. similarly Ftse has hit 6800 – so because of that we can predict it going higher to 6900 7000 then 7200. this is how i work it out. secondly putin only wanted to secure his port facility in crimea. now that is done – he has got better things to do than invade the rest of europe. so matter is closed. everything will die down in next few days. so bull market can continue
Putin has signed a deal to secure his “port facility” 18months ago for the next 30years and even the new government in Kijev confirmed they will uphold the agreement…I definitely want some of the staff you on….lol
last year ftse rose 900 pips. so in bull market it is possible to repeat this. this means 7600. so what is 7100 by april. an easy target
S&P recovered half it’s losses from a fortnight today… Lol
adam
if you read all my comments then you will be able to understand. reading only one comment and thinking you understand it is ridiculous.
I did red all your comments….Just the comments about Putin tells me how very little you know about the situation. Yes markets went up last year a lot but that is no indication for this year. Last year we had QE full on where now we slowing down and by October we be done with QE all together . If you think it will not effect the market then think again….
last friday was he day to buy. it was typical bottoming process. add things yourself. market gains 50 pips every day – so 250 pips in one week. so 6800 by friday this week. then 7000 or 7100 by april. very easily
Lol Nitup…your reasoning is terrible. Just stick with buy the dip…
adam
you should learn to read between the lines and not be naive.
how can you trust – a rebel govt to uphold any deals. when putin
saw ukraine govt being broken down by protestors , he knew.
see libya or eqypt. so he wanted his ports secure. that is all it was. obviously you are only able to hear the news without understanding it.
this is how you understand the market. it is free to go on with its bull move.
Nitup V 7100 by April lol can see your going to lose a lot of money with the way you trade
ahwab
your earlier comment about market – can’t see it going any more after a 90 point swing. you made this from past information. so i make my assumptions from past information. so we agree on that
Adam
i agree with your QE explanation. just like that was a catalyst last year. this year the catalyst is the sentiment which is bullish. only bad news can delay this move. like ukraine. now it can resume. but faster – why i say that is that last year we say 900 point rise – so to do that this year – we need the market to move faster. like today – it moved 50 pips . so work it out . its simple when you can reason things out
I have been following Luan – he is the only one who thinks like me. He has advised many people not to short a bull market. Not many people are taking his advise
Oh you mean this comment from Luan???
Luan
March 16, 2014
why people try finding bottoms ?
Waiting ? daaahh
When the upside begins, after a while people try to find tops.
In both cases they are burned.
When upside resumes we will see in charts, but many will be afraid, saying this will go down again, do not trust this move…short is the word… and so on
Or maybe this one
Luan
March 16, 2014
For now FTSE is in full swing down move. NO signs yet
However compelling your arguments – Nitup
The charts are telling another story.
For the conceivable future – 6800 7100 & the rest is not showing up on the charts. The only figure – that is likely to play out – is Lower than where we are right now. 6500 and below.
Putin – Bull market – or whatever will have to wait. However convincing your argument
But it’s not convincing, that’s everyone’s point.
GG
instead of arguing like bitches…
how about after market close everyone just says in a couple words where they think the markets are heading tomorrow?
To me im looking at a drop on bad German US data, also on a short term, 30 mins interval markets look exhausted, daily RSI has made a bit of room for a drop, also i have a top channel around 6600.
HashHash
You referring to Housing starts on the US side? If so I’ll take an opposing view…..and say we will be modestly up tomorrow.
However at the moment it has little to do with data and more with what will happen next in Ukraine.
no not housing..
for US im looking at consumer price index which is expected to drop (also i believe it will be dropping).
Also German + EU ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment is expected bad
which have high impact.
DAX should def be in red tomorrow.
Wow,
And I thought I was a rookie.
7600 by year end, would be nice, but don’t assume the markets will always be at its highest at year end…7000 by week end would be fabulous, but not likely 🙂
ive got 6600 for the top tomorrow
placing small short order there, and will add if we break below 6600 tomorrow
Will try to trade DAX for first time tmorrow but not setting in orders for it overnight.
I think a test of 9200-9210 before a drop, DAX will be in red before the DOW data will push it back up.
Hopefully DAX will move this time thAt son of a…likes to move like crazy when your not on it…
why will dow data push it up ?