6550, 6533 (s1), 6490 support, 6590 resistance

Good morning. Surprisingly bullish is how I would describe yesterday! My initial short didn’t work out, though the 6785 area we talked about in the trading room a lot, held as resistance, so was “scalpable” for a few bear points. Strange really as there was stil a lot of rhetoric regarding Crimea/Russia/Ukraine, we even had Obama talking about it during a press conference and sanctions are still being bandied about, though against individuals rather than Russia itself. I am watching 6595 for resistance today and if that breaks think we will get 6620 and possibly the top of the 20 day Bianca at 6699 (maybe not today though!). Support wise 6550 is the line in the sand, with the pivot slightly above at 6562.

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rebounded, with the the regional index rising from a five-week low, and nickel surged toward a bull market as investors weighed the impact of sanctions against Russia. Gold retreated a second day before the Federal Reserve begins discussing monetary policy today.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.5 percent by 3:17 p.m. in Tokyo, climbing from the lowest close since Feb. 7. Japan’s Topix index jumped 1 percent to snap a four-day rout. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures were little changed. Nickel climbed the most in two weeks as an export ban by Indonesia and the risk of further penalties for Russia’s actions in Ukraine raised supply concerns. Gold and silver slid at least 0.5 percent.

The U.S. and European Union imposed limited sanctions on some people linked to Russian efforts to annex Crimea, the Ukrainian territory that voted to join Russia in a disputed March 16 referendum. The Fed will press on with cuts to stimulus and switch to qualitative guidance for assessing rates, according to economists. Chinese property prices rose in 69 of 70 cities last month, data today showed amid reports a closely held real-estate developer collapsed with $567 million of debt.

“There will be some positive pass through into the Asian session from the gains in asset markets overnight,” said Mitul Kotecha, head of global markets research for Asia at Credit Agricole SA in Hong Kong, in an e-mailed note. “A degree of caution continues to be warranted given the still precarious situation in the Ukraine and ongoing tensions between Russia and the west. The reaction by the West in terms of sanctions was not seen to have a particularly detrimental impact on sentiment.”

Fed Survey
The Fed Open Market Committee will further scale back its stimulatory bond-buying program when its meeting concludes March 19, reducing purchases by $10 billion for the third time, according to 54 economists surveyed by Bloomberg March 14-17. Policy makers will scrap a 6.5 percent unemployment-rate target in favor of a range of economic indicators, 76 percent of the economists said.

Russia
EU foreign ministers meeting in Brussels agreed to freeze assets and put visa travel bans on 10 Russian politicians, three military leaders, including Black Sea Fleet Commander Aleksandr Viktorovich Vitko, and eight Crimean politicians.

The U.S. imposed measures on three members of Putin’s inner circle and four Russian parliament and senate committee leaders Leonid Slutsky, Andrei Klishas, and Yelena Mizulina, and upper house Speaker Valentina Matviyenko, according to a White House statement.

Putin responded by recognizing the breakaway Black Sea region as a sovereign state while Western leaders warned that Russia would face added sanctions, including possibly on energy assets, if it moved deeper into Ukraine.

“Further provocations will achieve nothing, except to further isolate Russia and diminish its place in the world,” U.S. President Barack Obama said yesterday at the White House. The U.S. can “calibrate our response” based on whether Russia chooses “to escalate or to de-escalate the situation.”

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

FTSE Outlook
Bit of a shame that we didn’t get the dip initially yesterday as there was good support at 6475, so would have made a good swing low entry. Still if it was easy and that predictable eh!

For today there is support at 6550 and if that holds initially this morning I am thinking a run up to 6590 is possible. We still have a degree of uncertainty over Russia which never really helps things as we are in a more fundamentals trading rather than technical trading period. If the bulls were able to break that 6593 area then 6620 looks possible, the only thing stopping me from getting too bullish is the fact that we are at the top of the 10 day Raff and 10 day Bianca channels. It will be interesting to see if 6550 holds as if it breaks then 6490 is very likely.

128 Comments

  2. Luke

    Even if Fed does cut 10 billion – the market is going to ignore everything.
    It is solidly on a Bull Market Watch. You should understand that nothing
    is going to halt this market from going higher and higher.

    Havies – is modest when he says he is a rockie. His thoughts are exactly
    like mine and logically speaking dont have doubts about buying this market.

    Today we should see atleast 6050 or even 6075. This will set us up to the
    target of 7100 by April – quite easily

  3. They don’t have much choice! if they don’t it would rang alarm bells there is something wrong with the recovery and THAT wouldn’t be good for the market.

  4. Adam the QE tapering is will be done over the whole of 2014, Yellen not going to be the one that sink the markets just yet.

    Nitup V your living in a dream world mate 7100 by the end of April… Your a very deluded newbie.

    1. Luke

      obviously you have not done your research very well.
      from 4th Feb to 25th Feb – just 20 days the market
      put on 500 points ( 6850 – 6350 )
      we still have 45 days till April. you underestimate
      this when you are thinking.
      this is how i have come to my predictions , very logically

          1. My too…lol…but his prediction is that FTSE will be 7100 or about BY APRIL so including today, that’s 10 trading sessions!

  5. Nitup V like I said yesterday your going end up losing a lot of money like most us when we 1st started out, if the markets were logical then we would all be millionaires.
    If you think it going to reach 7100 by the end of April that upto you but I think you are dreaming but good luck.

    1. Thank you for your advise.

      Then how should I look at the market. If i do not have a view
      on which way the market is going to go – then how to i place
      my position.

      the 7100 – ok it may not be 100% accurate but are you saying
      that the market is going down? but where is the proof for that.
      how can a market go down when the economy is getting better
      this seems illogical to me

  6. China growth at its lowest predicted level in 2 years, 2 bond defaults out if China, US QE being removed, housing bubble in the UK & across Asia, raw materials prices plummeting……could go on..Nitup but I think all people are saying is that it’s not clear cut, which is what you’re implying

    1. Thank you

      But – how can anybody place a trade if you dont think logically

      1. We all know we are in a bull market
      2. ukraine – was an uncertainty – agreed – but that is resolved
      3. Other events – like Malaysian flight – hijackers etc – wont affect market
      4. Economy – is getting better – most of the figures are substianting that
      5. Chinas slowing growth – will give an oppurtunity for manufacturing
      to come back to west – as we have seen in US & here as well
      6. Job growth is getting better
      7. Stock market companies are going to grow as a result and profits
      will increase and better dividends etc

      I dont see an issue with this. how can the market go down. so the
      only way is for the market to go higher

      1. So tell me, if you such a fabulous strategist what are you doing on this forum?? Going by the way you think, you should be very, very rich and drinking cocktails on the beach in the Bahamas …lol

      2. well nitup, the best way is NOT by thinking why ur view is correct, but instead pick out all the issues you think there are with your view.
        If you cant find any reasons to why you are wrong then your view is correct.
        Its good to be stubborn on your view, you need that ability to be a profitable trader, but its even more better when you can understand what others are saying and be confident enough to reject their view based on facts not just because it doesnt match your views.
        Yes its possible for FTSE to reach 7100 by end of april
        But you tell me whats the probability of that happening,90%..50%..5%?
        *many markets hit all time high but ftse was still around 1-2% off its all time high, right now 6880ish seems to be a barrier.
        *China growth slowing down, yes it will bring more manufacturing to US, but thats not a real fix as the 2nd biggest global economy will be in a melt down to who which US owes debt in trillions.
        *Companies reporting bigger profits, not because they have larger revenue but their profit margins have increased due to cost cutting. This is not a good sign, this shows that the companies are trying to survive…not THRIVE which is what is needed in a recovery.
        *Yes i agree, US economy has been doing well.
        *Ukraine issue has NOT been resolved yet, unless i missed something.
        UK survives on real estate investment – so this is a key result to keep an eye out on.
        All i can say is ftse is in a limbo right now, i cannot say we WONT reach 7100 because there is a possibility, but if u bet using spreadbetting/cfd ur interest charge will eat through shit loads of ur profit by the time u see 7100.

  7. Nitup V

    I use to trade everyday & too be truthful lost lots of money now I maybe twice a week but look at different markets my average trade is open for 3 days… It’s about patience look at markets where they are going to be hitting major support or resistance trade smaller with a wider stop… Entry & exit in the markets are the hardest thing to learn with discipline and patience you will make money it is surprising how quick you can get a nice bit of profit on your account.

  8. Luke , hashmash, adam.

    thank you for your advise.
    I will hold back on my trading and wait now.

    can you advise me if I can use charts to see how to trade.

    1. 6600 ive had as a barrier for a couple days now..if that breaks then we “MIGHT” be in bull market

  13. Good day today. 94 pips. Hashmash I’m assuming you shorted the DAX? After that picked up some 40 points on the rally. US should push the market higher, still yet to see negative results have a negative impact on the market. Thinking we will follow the momentum.

    Gl all

    1. nah i didnt short DAX… was going to overnight and catch the drop but then thought ill just be gambling, got no exp in executing that market

      1. I have the same perspective as yourself. Holding a small short and see 6600 as the key that would convince me we are going back up. My instinct is that we havent completed this recent sell off and that we will drop well into the 6400s before making a meaningful rally – but as ever will be guided by where the price actually takes us

  15. I think us market will push ftse higher today.possibly upto 6620. building stats came good and inflaition also stable. they will think their economy is good enough to withstand the scale back of QE. they just need a excuse to get it higher.lol

    1. Am interested in your exit criteria as I am trying to refine my entry/exit technique…. Are you saying you want to see the price above 6600 for 30 minutes before closing, or something different ?

      1. Hashmash trades with the belief that if it finishes above 6600 for the 30mins, it shows strength and if it were to drop it shows resistance therefore better to keep his sell position.

        1. OK I see – like the concept as all too often you reach to a spike in prices only to see it reverse very quickly once you have acted. I guess you have to be careful if the price runs away though in that 30 minute period

  17. Havies mate, whats your perspective on this?
    You buying the rises?
    Im still think we will get sub 6500 after the announcement before a 6800.

  18. If we put trading on a side for a moment I have to say that I am absolutely disgusted wit our politician and the market reaction over all the situation in Ukraine. All those big international agreement signed by Russia and other western powers when they gave up nuclear weapons means a shit!!. That in my mind puts any agreement signed by the current elites absolutely meaningless!!Its ok as Putin only wans a pica of Ukraine so lets him have it??!!… how about if he would want to take back Alaska??? that would be probably sooooo not acceptable!! I think its time for the rest of the world to understand that the US doesn’t give a shit what will happened to anyone, they just look after their own arse!

    1. adam

      What don’t you understand? & why are you disgusted?

      I explained yesterday to you. Putin & Russia was not willing to lose the only all year round port – a military one. the infighting in Kiev – a bunch of ” Freedom Fighters ” got what was coming to them. Putin has been saying – for years – that ukraine should be neutral – & not go & join EEC or Nato – would they listen – NO – so what do you expect ….. Putin saying ” oh well thats ok – go ahead & join Nato -” no problem – I’ll move all my fleet to ……..let me see…….to Siberia ?”

      What about Maggie – Lets invade Falklands – ” um!! – where is that ”

      & also see – what I said to you – Ukraine – IS RESOLVED. Putin is not an idiot to invade – Ukraine.

      & see whaer the market is going. 6650 / 75 – as I said.

    2. Adam

      Oh Forgot

      Twin Towers ——-lets fabricate a load of shit against Saddam Hussain – & test our missilies against him – dont worry – about Russian & chinese veto – well invade anyway.

      Where was the respect for agreements then.

      the east , west , are all the same – when it comes to politics –
      ” Lets bend it like beckham ”

      So why are you disgusted ?

      1. Well, I don’t know about you but I do have some morals in my life.
        Would you like if someone come to your house and try to take something away?? btw, at no point I said it was ok to invade Irak!!

        1. Adam

          ” Morals are for Dreamers ”

          Libya – Better – With or without Gaddafi

          Egypt – Better – with or without Mubarrak

          Russia – Better – with or without Yeltsin ( bottle of vodka for ….a copper mine …….aluminium mine………oil reserve…..fair deal )

          Russia – Better – with or without Putin

          well if you know the answers to any of these… would like to know

    1. Nick was saying both 6620 and 6490 were likely…….depending on which way the market moved! Can’t lose!

    1. still im not too bullish on FTSE yet, this can easily be back at below 6600 by end of tomorrow

  25. Also you choose your battles……Iraq because they don’t have WMD…..Syria no….because they do.

    No one has any appetite to take on Russia. No one.

    Back to the markets…..the modest gain as expected today. Data has been improving. Tomorrow though is a bit more difficult to predict as good news is bad news is good news makes it a lottery. The only clue is that the market has at least room to rally after the recent sell off and the political situation is calming down…..for now at least.

    Cautiously optimistic for tomorrow.

  26. Logically also

    QE money is being phased out. So whose money is this buying the market ?
    Well its Real Money – so logically – what is going to happen – ?
    well this bull rally has got legs – ( dont have to be afraid that They are going to ask for this illusion money back ) – so one more reason

    1. what are you talking about?
      Do you know how federal reserve works?
      They LOAN the money to US Government
      Of course the will want the money back.
      Why u think US is in such a huge debt of trillions?
      Theres a reason to by there are protests and conspiracy theories to why people believe fed are fucked up and trying to take over the world by building debt so that everyone will be a slave.
      The amount of tax collected in US every year is not even enough to pay back the interest on US debt.

      1. This is exactly what I am saying – Money out of this air. An illusion.
        So how does it effect the market? because people thing this illusion has gone away. Not really – its still there – as debt. A debt that cannot be paid back. So what do you do ? like an illusion – you wish it away – just like that ! This is not a conspiracy. this is real. Except that everybody know about it – but just ignores it or fabricates another set of illusions to make it go away.

        So whichever way you look at it – QE – no QE – what does it matter. It was an illusion & like any illusion – the next magician has another trick in the hat.

        So all this tapering affecting the market – Can be totally ignored.

  27. Talking about market data, and house price etc, a recent documentary by robert peston (bbc) regarding china was broadcast.
    An economist was discussing his views of how chinas property market is around the same levels as the us/uk market was in 2005.

    Btw still long on ftse and dax, its been a brilliant day, and expecting a rise tomorrow too.
    As youve said javed, dont know the market reaction regarding the tapering.
    Could just be that no tapering- good news, although means fed doesnt have confidence in economy to taper again, so could bad news.
    Or tapering- bad news for stock market, although the december reaction was really positive.

  28. Since we had just a big movement today I doubt we will see much tomorrow with the FED at 6.00…sideways movement probably,

  29. And yes, absolutely agreed.
    Stupid us politicians are fighting over tax cuts and spending, but neither side is truly addressing the ridiculous 100% of gdp us debt.
    Too busy trying to get another term in office (e.g. Obama).
    Cant blame american protesters worried about their countrys future.

  30. I’m not sure it can be ignored Nitup……but where central bankers earn their corn is knowing how and when to reduce the stimulus without affecting the market too dramatically. So just because we have rallied 60% because of QE doesn’t mean we will fall 60% once it has been taken away.
    However given this risk of a slump central bankers will always tend to overcompensate…..so yes expecting inflation and credit to spiral resulting in rates being pushed up further and faster than expected starting in 2015.

  31. What was that?! FTSE just spiked to 6680. Was that real as cant see it on the other indexes

    1. Not convinced it was real – we had one of these late last year and IG “removed” it a few hours later so it was like it never happened – if I recall correct the index then went in the opposite direction in the next few sessions.

        1. What are you going on about – just because we are in a 5 year bull market doesn’t mean it goes up all the time. Look at the daily charts for the last year – it goes up several hundred points and then back several hundred points so it can go down and up at any phase of the bull or a bear cycle. Shares didnt jump 1% for a few seconds so it was likely an artefact. Did you close your long at that level?

  34. yesterday – it moved 50+ to 6590 –
    today to 6675 – so on this basis –

    I dont want to guess anymore – but
    6750 .. 6800 .. 6850..6900..6950..7000

    So i am not going to mention 7100 – as everybody gets excited !!

  42. 4 hrs FTSE — LinReg 100 still pointing down but index has now crossed above latter; very encouraging and pointing to an up escalator. Uncertain that the FTSE possesses much in the way of self-determination, perhaps defying logic Nitup, so relieved that the US indices are so buoyant against such a volatile background.

  46. i just checked,
    some retard traded 3200 lots which caused the spike in the futures market.

    1. Makes sense – normality resumed. Suspect we will get our dip into the close. My method was switched bullish this afternoon so have gone into buy the dips mode – but not necessarily today

        1. Like now (although end of day is not ideal) – if you think it is generally going up in the next few days then better to buy when it dips than when it surges ahead.

    1. I dont know but am inclined now to always have an order in place to close for a profit about 1% from the current price – just incase something similar happens again. I suppose if you can produce a screen shot you are entitled to claim it is legit but others may have direct experience of this kind of thing as to what does/doesn’t happen

    2. it was a legit spike i mentioned above.
      someone traded 3200 near month futures in ftse
      most likely algo fuck up or fat finger.

  50. this is called algo-trading
    computer programme buys 3200 ftse at 6610 with order to exit at 6700
    so do the maths.
    this is why algotrading is profitable
    this is why they pay millions at the trading firms to do algo trading

  51. Hold on, doesn’t a spike up mean someone shorted a shedload??
    If so, are we missing something??

    2. Which planet are you on ? Spike up ! not Down !
      I have already explained how algo-trading works !

      1. Listen, don’t appreciate your tone and didn’t ask you. If you don’t have something constructive to say, keep it to yourself.

    1. tell them blonde ! – when i told them that shorting was for fools
      nobody beleived me. now see !

  53. this is the problem with traders. they think they know everything.
    they dont want to learn . just think they know how market works.
    in other jobs , people ask and learn – but i have found in this job
    everybody is an expert.
    that is fine with me. i wont explain, take the wrong direction.
    spike up is shorting. fine with me. you know everything

      1. That’s what I mean, it’s like Luan was looking in the mirror writing it. I call it an opinion and don’t mind if people disagree with it, but not in that tone.

        Don’t want to boast, but my numbers speak for themselves…

        1. No ” you dont want to boast ” – but that is all that you have been doing. So lets not hide behind melodramas

      2. no i am not an expert – but to say up is down and down is up.
        well i have heard everything now

  54. Luan
    It was up there for which means people must have sold into it, we are back where we started @ 6610 so the people short must be in the money
    I agree with Havies, don’t like your tone, met loads like you in the City, pumped up know it alls
    Cheers
    GG

    1. so are you telling me that there were traders who knew that there was going to be a spike and were waiting there to sell into it.
      i have heard that the lunar landing was all staged in a hanger in oklahoma !
      probably.!! as i said all traders are experts. its the only job where you dont go to school to learn.

      1. I’m not and learning every day. Even learnt something from you just now…
        Not to be an @sshole, cause karma is a b&tch!!!

  55. I have been spread trading for 15 years. Always learning. Can never fully crack the market and I don’t trust anyone who says they can. History repeats itself for sure but still the future is not ours to see. Que Sera sera…….but we try our best.

    1. Javed

      Havies is the only guy who has cracked the market. His boasts after just 1 year of trading – well they are telling

      so from now on a Spike up – is when people short ! fine
      better update the trading annuals with this.

      1. luan honestly if u are as good u say then u dont need to moan about amatuers boasting…just let it go..
        yes he made a mistake if he said spike up is people shorting…
        but u cant make urself look bigger by holding on to such a silly mistake loool

    2. Well said Javed. I’d like to add that there should be room for more than one point of view, even at the same time, without triggering hysterics, entertaining as they are!

  56. No but there had to sell orders in the market for it to trade there-like school Luan, it’s full of objectionable people like you

  57. any way guys, just ignore these annoying people.
    Like i mentioned at close of trading we should all just drop a quick view of what tomorrow may bring.

    *Fed meeting : Fuck knows…
    *My indicator leaning kinda bearish still…however looking price action…looks like markets will climb a bit more unless yesterday and today was a trap.
    *I have large buy orders at 6530-6550 which i believe is now a major support

    1. Think we will have a flat day until after the fed meeting, may dip slightly, but see an upbeat couple of sessions ahead.
      Don’t think whatever the Fed meeting results are will have any effect on the markets. All very predictable…

      Not sure if we will reach that low…

      Gl

  58. A spike up – is when there are more orders to buy than to sell.
    not the other way round.

    Whatever – Havies says

  59. ALso i believe if one gets excited that the market is moving in the way they “predicted”…then i suggest that they really look at their strategy and most likely most of the time they will realize they dont have strategy and that their “prediction” was just a guess.
    If one has a sound strategy then they never really get excited when the markets move in their favor.

  60. That is true hashmash…..some of the best professional traders I’ve worked with have been those that are indifferent to a loss or a gain…..or as much as they can be!

    As for tomorrow….no idea….no one can predict it accurately. I am long for 3 months from Feb to April so of course I want it to rise…..and other things being equal I would expect there to be an upward movement tomorrow.
    Overall for me though it is just noise…..where it finishes on 30th April…..7100 or 6850 or 6400 is more important to me!

  61. Thanks Jim……there are opposing views in the market….has to be for it to function…..so de facto there will be opposing views here. All we ask is for people to explain their views in a logical and convincing manner without resorting to childish abuse.

    My 2 penneth anyroad.

  62. Of course spike up is some large buy order flow. Seller is market maker who maybe selling inventory or offsetting with a sell order (ie.some shorter order). Then it obviously comes back down as there isn’t buyer order demand at that higher price…
    Simple supply/demand equation.

  63. Still sitting on sidelines as I cant decide whether this really is the start of a leg up or a small bounce before a further dip. This hasn’t been a terribly big drop in the last 3 weeks and it could easily repeat what it did early December. There are enough banana skins about at the moment eg Ukraine/Russia that could easily cause this to tumble 100 or so points at short notice.

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