6601 and 6575 support, 6652 , 6700 resistance

Good morning. A little frustrating that the bears didn’t drive the price down to the 6570 area for a decent bounce potential, instead only managing 6600 before the buy the dippers came in. Still, the early long from 6620 came in OK so cant be greedy! It feels like we are just slowly drifting down with the various bits of uncertainty in the air – Ukraine/Russia, and a slowing China (more negative news out last night from them, with weakened industrial output growth and cooling retail sales). It has been known though for a slow drift down to be sharply corrected up so we could well see some lows in the not too distant future. Was thinking 6570 FTSE and 1852 S&P would be that level…

Bianca Trends
Bianca Trends

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks trimmed a rebound, with gauges in Hong Kong and Tokyo reversing, and copper declined as China reported slower-than-estimated growth in industrial production, retail sales and fixed-asset investment. Gold increased and the yen advanced a fourth day.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.2 percent by 3:02 p.m. in Tokyo, paring a rebound of as much as 0.6 percent after its biggest loss since Feb. 4 yesterday. The Hang Seng Index erased a gain of 0.6 percent in Hong Kong and the yen rose 0.1 percent after China’s data. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures rose 0.3 percent. The currencies of South Korea, Malaysia and Indonesia rallied versus the greenback, while the Aussie surged 0.7 percent. Copper dropped 0.7 percent and gold traded near a six-month high.

China said industrial output expanded 8.6 percent through January and February, less than the 9.5 percent estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, underscoring fears of a slowdown that’s fueled a rout in global equities and industrial metals. Premier Li Keqiang pledged to control systemic risks in the financial system and provide a stable environment for growth at the conclusion of China’s annual meeting of lawmakers today. Simmering tensions over Russia’s incursion into Ukraine’s Crimea region helped push wheat into a bull market yesterday.

“The markets are very fragile around China,” Peter Esho, Sydney-based chief market analyst at Invast Securities Co., said by phone. “Both industrial production and retail sales numbers today are soft, but not as bad as they could have been.”

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

FTSE Outlook
I am feeling a buy the dip day today and as such have put 3 possible long entry points below. As mentioned above I was hoping for the 6570 area yesterday which would have been a good entry, but alas it wasn’t hit. The S&P has had a solid bounce of the bottom of the 20 day Raff channel in the end, at 1854 (also just missing the lowest target 1852 mentioned yesterday), and now looks like it could get as high as 1920.

With regard to the FTSE the key resistance level to break initially will be the top of the channel on the 30 minute, sitting at 6660. Break that and 6700 and 6729 (top of the 10 day Bianca channel) are looking likely.

170 Comments

  1. Went long at 6600 on ftse and long on Dax 9200….. Had a day off yesterday and enjoyed the sun.

    1. good positions – had a long order @6605 that was filled – also foolishly expected the ftse to test 6650 first thing, so lost 10 points on that

    1. Im feeling bullish and the charts are looking bullish, not exactly the entry point i wanted (6605) but Im long at 6620.

    2. the bounce seems to be the end of the sell off, so break 6650/6660 and up to 6700 – the 6650/60 could take a while though.

    1. Not sure Jack….unless he gets a cut from the big boys to confuse the retail investors and point them in the wrong direction..lol…who knows. In my opinion we are on the way down. Retail in China is down, industrial production in China is down, the political tension over Ukraine is growing by the day and referendum to follow over the weekend, I really can see what possibly can take us to the 6700 mentioned here?? People seams to forgot that the market is not just daily, weekly or monthly averages, resistance levels etc. If it was just that we all should be VERY RICH by now and not even having this discussion…lol

      1. I agree, and if you look at Nick’s arrow up – we don’t see any arrow after than, maybe it is an arrow down. So it’s just a suggestion of what could happen. Maybe short 6700 would be good if we get there.

    2. Errr, its just my opinion I post!? Just because I think it unfortunately doesn’t mean its guaranteed!!!! Which is a shame as I could do with being a gazillionaire!

      1. Of course, Nick. Nobody knows where the market will go and it’s so brave to have an opinion that helps others most of the time. Thank you.

  4. Industrial production in China is a miss and miners on FTSE are up??!! anyone with a bright idea why??….lol…

  5. I guess miners are up because if the strong push up we’ve seen in precious metals, especially gold. Lagging one to watch is palladium which could really pop to the upside
    GG

  6. Yes I would agree with you Adam but even though the bad data in China & Russia/Ukraine issue the American markets are holding that why I took my longs this morning, and your right I can not see the ftse hitting 6700 today either.

  9. Nick,

    This must be pleasing to read the above knowing that they are all better traders than us……
    For today we will keep buying the dips whilst they keep selling, after all, we are both here to read the views of these professional traders..

  11. Shez short this morning booked 6605
    Then short again now from 6618
    Till 6580 then will wait to go long this afternoon big time

  12. 3rd test of 6600, stops below could flush out some longs down to 6570 area then I feel a bounce is on the cards
    GG

  14. This is what i call a period of markets floating.. they been on a way down for too long n now doodling about.. also US expecting good news.. on US open we will see a reboubd.. but im still bearish.
    Have closed half my short for profit taking n will enter again around 6640

  15. long since 6618 its holding 6600 really strong can see this getting to 500’s unless some more bad news.

  17. James
    I agree buy the dips and I am currently long at 6606 but don’t you feel a 3rd test of 6600 is a bit ominous or do you see a base forming ?
    GG

    1. As you asked I actually have a retrace to 6595 from 6602
      Trigger buy at 6602 with a stop at 6591 for me on the FTSE
      Trigger hit on DAX at 9176 with a stop at 9159

  18. I wish I just traded DAX today seems to bounce of 200 nice each time could have picked up a good 40 points

  19. James have read many of your post you are most definitely not a professional trader…. Sorry to burst your bubble old chap.

    1. My Bubble has not burst…oh hang on a moment, was it you that said yesterday we are going down, after I mentioned the S&P500 will be going up into the close, oh an yes it reached it’s projected target last night… once it broke 1863.5…
      so sorry to burst your little bubble, but next you post, why don’t you give the exact figures to trad to or from !

        1. your welcome,
          S&P500 1874.7 to 1870.7 a break either way will set the tone today,
          DOW 16382 to 16412 a break either way..

          trading ranges we are watching be for we trade again, would not want to get caught inside of these ranges but a break will decide our trade

  21. I see this website as a brilliant means to trade have a chat and exchange different points of view. No one professes to be the guru here but we all want to make money and improve. Everyone will lose at some point some more than others best I have learnt is to learn and not repeat and always follow your rules. When ever I don’t I invariably loose. Nicks charts are a great marker to guide us and I for one really appreciate the fact he shares them with us.
    Good luck all

    1. Cheers Marco, well said. Always a good indicator of market tops and bottoms when everyone starts bickering……….

          1. Yes keep doing small bets with dax when it hits 200 it keeps bouncing sub 200 to around 208-10 ish.

  23. Guys,
    I have closed all my shorts – I am looking at a rebound here, around 6570-6600 (before more bearishness, if there is any, cant say for sure will have to observe the rebound first).

  25. Don’t like this spike. For me it still feels false spike for some reason. Maybe because I am bearish?

  26. Duration wise, longest spell we’ve spent at 6600, either the bulls are soaking it up or people are nervous at trying to push it down to this 6570 level everyone is talking about-either way it looks like a bear trap to me. Sitting this one out
    GG

  27. James bursting your bubble again bud but I never posted anything about the S&P500 yesterday I was enjoying the sun….. Don’t trade every day had a great touch with the Dax drop last week so chill time. Little trade today but nothing to write home about… I leave the big moves for you pro.

  32. Javed are you there?
    I remember you saying, 6650 would make you nervous. How you feeling 🙂
    What’s your view on ftse – where does ftse be by end of this month (financial year), new money coming in next month, according to your model.
    I noted Havies point about DOW dropping by a 1% and knock on effect on ftse and other indices. Thanks for that Havies.
    Keen to know your view 🙂

    1. Here it goes. Stopped there as I predicted, I’m the new free analyst. Wanna subscribe to my letters ?

  38. Jboe says:
    March 13, 2014 at 1:35 pm
    dow will stop at 16340 futures JUN. It go down also mid afternoon

    Reply
    Jboe says:
    March 13, 2014 at 1:56 pm
    Here it goes. Stopped there as I predicted, I’m the new free analyst. Wanna subscribe to my letters ?

    Reply
    Jboe says:
    March 13, 2014 at 1:57 pm
    Look the hours when I posted and look the Dow Chart Futures JUN

    Reply

  41. I am still waiting to short but only off any strength but its done very little all day – so looks like maybe a quiet day, unless things perk up a bit soon

    1. SL1 has been testing quite a few times at that 6600 level so if it significantly breaks then could see a fair bit of downside

      1. Yes agree – but higher risk trade so Id prefer it to repeat what it did this time yesterday and short off that. Might just sit on the sidelines today

    1. DOW will bounce and reverse at 16170 and SP500 at 1848 for new highs.
      Meanwhile FTSE will bounce and reverse below 6600. Between 6500-6550

      So longs at 16170 – 1848 – 6550 – 6500

  44. Jboe says:
    March 13, 2014 at 1:35 pm
    dow will stop at 16340 futures JUN. It go down also mid afternoon

    Reply
    Jboe says:
    March 13, 2014 at 1:56 pm
    Here it goes. Stopped there as I predicted, I’m the new free analyst. Wanna subscribe to my letters ?

    Reply
    Jboe says:
    March 13, 2014 at 1:57 pm
    Look the hours when I posted and look the Dow Chart Futures JUN

    Wanna subscribe to my newsletter ? 5 Pounds for trade analysis DOW, SP500, FTSE and DAX

      1. So cheap, because is more like a way of saying that my work is payed and I feel useful to other people. Do not need the money. My trades speaks…

  50. Still feels like a bear trap

    If you’re not sure
    And at this point in doubt
    Only one cure
    And that’s to get out!

    GG

  66. Havies, Hashmash, my fellow bears well done! Surprised at the amount of buyers going long today is the last day for me to go bearish on the ftse. Gl all.

  73. Fingers burnt today (and still burning with the longs I’m holding)…important (and expensive) lesson learnt for sure.

  75. Love when everyone going long, it just confirms my short is working 🙂 Hows your charts looking Jim?

  76. Sorry Luke, it wasn’t meant to sound like that, I just didn’t have it as a level
    Apologies
    GG

  77. GG that mate just posting my trade had 2 trades this morning 20 points on ftse and 40 points loss on Dax but small trades… My Dax trade is @ my maximum per point now at 9000 may have too hold this position for a week or two but hopefully will show me a handsome profit bud.

  79. Cheers Luke-same side but in ftse. Long again at 6627 & 6634, only holding it to see if it nudges back over 6550. Good luck with the Dax
    GG

  80. Havies

    Are you a happy man? 🙂

    Congratulations for holding all the way down, you must have had an amazing day today!

  81. Hi Gents

    Apologies not much time to post on here these days. Work taking too much time. Yes pretty nervous. To be honest didn’t we would be low at the beginning of the month. However a dip was expected and it is healthy. The next key level is around 6425.Still think we will head higher in Apri…..new tax year new money etc but 7000 looks like it is postponed. More like the oft hit high of 6850.

  83. Lol,

    Don’t want to say it, but was nervous times.
    I hope everyone had some success.

    Hashmash,
    Still think 6250 is out of reach?
    Dow and S&P just started correcting, so not looking good for ftse.

    Only hope is the Fed meeting 😉

    Gl all

    1. 6250 very well out of reach, like i mentioned 6500 high chance of bounce
      and no way it would break 6400
      Still sticking to my guns (closed all my shorts at 6605 and then reopened at 6584).
      Still thinking bounce will be within 6400-6500

  84. Btm of charts showing 5850 for 2014 we havent been their yet if and when we do i will probably go long GL

  85. Ps: I think I mentioned last year that 2014 would be a volatile year. Anyone noticed the intraday drops are higher than last year?

    Be prepared for se big moves up an. Down.

    Javed, agree and disagree mate. Will move higher in April, but think 7000 is definitely on.
    Will start buying my mid terms from 6400, every 50 points down.

  87. be awesome if we hit 6000 and we all get like £200/point and ride to 7000
    ahahahah
    be an awesome dream

  89. Not sure what caused such a heavy sell off China? Russia/Ukraine? Or Feds some saying China some saying Feds not many saying Russia….

  91. DOW still looking poised for more downside are we going to see more imbalance in the indices with roles reversed more points off the DOW less so on the ftse/DAX?
    P.s that DAX is one hell of a bastard! It moves crazy numbers whenever you don’t trade but happy with my shorts. Going to go all out bull once I see a good reversal, Stochastic levelling off at the bottom, rather wait now since most of the movement has been completed. The problem with going bear is once you are stuck in the position and holding you are screwed, only worth buying now if you have some good stops.

    Gl all.

    1. Tempting to go long on Dax, ftse might drop bit more, probably 6400 area but DOW looks like just started to drop this is stopping me!

      1. If SP500 goes up, DOW will follow. SP500 is benchmark. It may go down or not, depends on SP500.
        FTSE and DAX are another history. No comparison at all.
        DAX is in worst shape imo
        FTSE needs more downside, it’s a iô-iô daily chart… up and down always in same range, heheheh. 6400 is the last bottom. Then will go up with some help of other markets, but only help.
        US markets have their own schedule.

  92. can i have your email add hashmash? u hav awsome indicators 🙂 its worth taking some suggestion from you

  97. had a long at 6510 – closed at 6540 this am- and a short from 6540 which i hope goes to 6515 at least.

  98. Looks like we are going to bounce off 6506 pivot area – so will take profit at 6508 and go short again from 6516

      1. Yes – but will keep my 6516 short till close – or when 6465 is reached I suppose . But will assess as the day goes. My risk is only now on my 6539 trade – will play by ear. I’ll try & send a chart – if i can – not sure how though – bear with me

        1. You did well yesterday I didn’t see it breaking that 600 mark so hard low of 6505 amazing

  101. Gamblers. Day traders are gamblers, nothing more. No one can predict the market.
    You will loose big time in long term. The house wins always.
    The name of the site, suggests that. SPREADBETTING
    An investor have position traders and sell in tops and buy in dips.

  102. Luan
    To be totally honest, an investor as you put it is just a glorified gambler. They still take risk old fruit.
    GG

Comments are closed.